Fresno St. Alum wrote:
I and most believe that the B1G and or SEC will go to 16 or that the B12 will go to at least 12 sometime soon. UConn and Cincy are the top 2 off the list when the ACC refills. So Temple would be stretching it east as it is. Why add a school further northeast? They should add Tulsa, and if Navy leaves add S.Miss, then wait and add Charlotte or ODU after UConn and Cincy leave.
The problem we're seeing though, is that very little seems destined to easily change for UConn and Cincinnati.
Yes, both are probably high on the list of expansion candidates. But in order for those slots to open, it means a conference will need to go through some more drastic changes...in this case, likely the ACC.
For instance, say the Big Ten and SEC do expand to 16...you could see the ACC lose Virginia and UNC (or GA Tech) to the Big Ten and VA Tech and a 2nd ACC school (NC State, Clemson, GA Tech, Florida St). There's also some murmurs that the Big Ten could go to 18 in order to make a full play in the south with 4 schools like UVA, UNC, GA Tech, and a 4th like FSU, Duke, NC State, Clemson, Miami, FSU, etc).
Soooo...for the Big Ten and SEC to expand to 16, it likely means the ACC loses 4 schools. If the Big Ten goes to 18, then the ACC loses 6 of it's 14 schools:
ACC After a Big Ten/SEC Raid (with FSU as Big Ten #18):
= BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
If the Big Ten took Vanderbilt as #18, then the SEC at least needs a replacement which means an ACC school leaves for the SEC as a replacement.
So yes, you can slot in Uconn and Cincinnati to get to 10. And it's not a bad all-sports conference.
But it's literally the Big East from a few years back but with Louisville, Duke and WFU replacing VA Tech, Rutgers and Temple.
Not exactly a high caliber football conference.
But I would think at that point, that the Big 12 would make a play to get some of the southeast market with Clemson and Miami to team up with WVU. Hell, even Louisville and Duke could be in play by then.
For the Big East, which would now be all CUSA members plus Temple (if Uconn and Cincy left)...the TV contract would only benefit from adding northeast market schools. As we know, there are not many options. Umass is an option with their Boston DMA access.
For UMass, this is a school that CUSA in 1995 reached out to about joining for all-sports. FBS was not an option at that time though. But that conference was spread out just like the nBE is, and the TV money was nothing compared to what it is now. On top of that, markets meant much less in 1995 for TV contracts...whereby they are much more important now. "Market Penetration" was such a high value commodity for a long time...up until about a year ago. All of a sudden, due to the cable subscriber model for current and future conference networks, just being in a market holds weight.
I too agree that with the changing shape of the nBE, schools from midwest, plains, south, etc are all solid options. But I think for the sake of a TV contract, there is a benefit to having some access into markets like Philadelphia and Boston, especially given that you have an existing rivalry in non-FB sports for the lone two northeast schools being discussed: Temple and UMass.