How do you do that, JP? So glad you asked.

Honestly, as a Bona guy I am not scared about who we lose and who's left. We will have the best possible teams available to us (and Fordham! Zing!)

Seriously though, what really scares the hell of out me is that every coach & AD who doesn't understand RPI is going to immediately say "Our conference is weaker! We have to schedule more tough OOC games!" And then we'll lose those games (because they are hard to win), and we will have bad OOC records, which devalues our conference season, and we will be a one-bid league.

So here's how I'd "save" the A-10 if I were in charge, and show everyone our product was still a good one:


I would bring my basketball coaches and ADs to a meeting and show them how RPI really works: SOS isn't just your non-conference, it's your conference games, too. There are more conference games than non-conference games, so conference SOS is more important. You play teams with good records in conference by winning OOC games.

Explain that even with those guys leaving, our 1st, 2nd and 3rd place teams will be 13-3, 12-4, 11-5 or 10-6 in conference. If they want NCAA bids, those teams will need 20+ wins. We have to work together, all win OOC games. We can't all try to make up those missing games against those guys by scheduling 10 tough OOC games instead of four and going 3-7, and have our second place team end up 19-13 and in the NIT.

I'd set four rules:
#1 - No team can play more than TWO games a season against teams from the Top 7 conferences (6 BCS and new Big East).
#2 - No team can play more than FOUR games a season against teams from the Top 11 conferences (those 7, plus MWC, MVC, WCC, CUSA).

#3 - Everyone needs to aim for TEN non-conference wins, and if you have to play teams #333-#345 of the RPI to do it, you do it. You schedule like I will kill your children if you don't go undefeated.

#4 - No one speaks of how this hurts us. The company line is: "We're still a multi-bid league. We got five NCAA bids in 1997 and five bids in 1998. Four of the teams that got bids those seasons are still here: UMass, URI, GW and Saint Joe's. And now we have VCU as well. We'll be fine. If you're expect us to go away, just wait till March."

I wrap up the meeting with "Commit to this policy for three seasons and I guarantee you we get multiple bid every year. If we don't, I will resign and you can do whatever the hell you want. But we must work together and win OOC games. Your attendance will suffer, your revenue will suffer. You'll have to buy your wait out of contracts and turn down guarantees. Call me, we have the NCAA units from all those guys that left to cover you. If you want your fans to keep coming to your games, and players to want to play for you, there's only one way to do it: Win OOC games. We will skullbugger the RPI formula, get NCAA bids and remain a multi-bid league. Let's get to work."

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Andy Katz blog article with comments from Xavier President who says the A-10 will try to persuade the Catholic 7 schools to join prior to a Catholic 7 raid on the A-10.Good luck with that one.
Link at http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... basketball

Yeah, not happening.

Over on the A-10 board, there's people blaming the A-10 for not being prepared and not putting themselves in a position to capitalize (I.E. If the A-10 had kicked out bad members, they could pick and choose the best Catholic 7 to join the A-10 and presumably leave Providence and Seton Hall behind).

But it's absurd.
The C7 aren't turning down the A-10 because 21 teams is too many, or because the A-10 over-expanded with inferior members (the C7 want SLU and Butler, are considering VCU, and Charlotte is leaving anyway).

The C7 are saying no to the A-10 because GW, URI, Fordham, LaSalle and St. Joe's are in the same markets with GTown, St. John's, Nova, Hall and Providence.

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Exactly. Imagine if the A10 were 9 members right now:
UMass
Duquesne
Xavier
Dayton
St. Louis
Butler
Richmond
VCU
Temple (leaving)

One has to think that the C7 would feel more driver to at least consider joining the A10, knowing it would create a 15 school conference, take the existing C7 TV markets and add Cincinnati & Dayton, Richmond, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and MA/Boston.

But at 21, there is overlap with schools that nobody is interested in that are in the same markets covered by the C7.

The A10 DID provide some safety for it's members by expanding to 16 this year, 14 for next. The set themselves up so that if there were a BE split, and they lost as many as 6 members, that they would be safe with 8 members and not forced to expand like so many other conferences have had to do in the past. And that's if they lose 6 members. It's more likely that they lose 3 members now (Xavier, Butler, St. Louis). That still leaves Dayton and VCU in the A10. Less ideal a situation for Dayton (losing 3 neighbors) but it's not like they are instantly going to leave the A10. Horizon? No. MVC? Maybe, but then they'd be the most eastern school and lose out on east coast recruiting...versus staying in the A10 and being the most western in an east coast conference.

So if the A10 loses 3, guess what...they are at 11 members. Stay at 11? Maybe. Add a 12th? Sure, why not...GMU wanted an invitation last time from the A10 and was passed over for Butler and VCU. I'm sure they will take being with VCU, Richmond, GW and St. Joes (as well as 2 other Philly schools) versus being with Drexel, JMU, W&M, etc. Especially given that if GMU passed on the A10, the CAA could lose Hofstra.

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At the end of the day, there's going to be two different conferences on the East coast with catholic schools that play pretty good basketball:
St. John's, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown will be in one; and St. Joe's, LaSalle, GW, URI and Fordham will be another one. Same as always.

What was the A-10 to do? NOT have teams in New York City, Philly and DC?

The ONLY way the BE catholic schools would EVER join a different league (rather than raid one) would be if during the 1990s, the whole MCC/GMW/CUSA thing broke differently, and there was currently a midwest "catholic league" of:

Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Marquette, Butler, DePaul, Detroit (and maybe Duquense, St. Bona)
with Notre Dame, Charlotte and Temple (leaving for football reasons)

But when the A-10 was built upon the competing ECAC/Atlantic 10 core that has ALWAYS been kept at arm's reach by the Big East Catholics, there's always going to be two rival groups.

That's why the A-10 expanded to 14, then 16, BEFORE the Big East split happened. They pre-emptively knocked up-and-coming conferences like the Horizon and CAA (by stealing Butler and VCU) back down to one-bid leagues; and they prevented the MVC from passing them by taking Saint Louis.

The A-10 will probably reload to 12 teams, fortify, show everyone they are still a multi-bid league; THEN look at expansion if someone from the CAA or MAAC is doing their Butler/Gonzaga impression.

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So it's looking more and more likely like 12 to the C7 conference.

Which means 4-5 Atlantic 10 teams leaving. Obviously, the A-10 would be rooting for Creighton and Saint Louis to be invited to the C7 -- as that's one less A-10 team being pilfered if Creighton is offered, and if the 4 A-10 schools offered does not include SLU, the MVC would probably inviting them, meaning a 5 A-10 schools take off (plus Charlotte and Temple!)

So, it looks like Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis, and maybe VCU are headed out of the league after next season.

14 in 2013-14
8-10 teams in 2014-15.

Rhode Island
Fordham
LaSalle
Saint Joe's
George Washington
St. Bonaventure
Duquesne
Richmond
---
UMass (BE FB invite possibly coming)
VCU (C7 invite possibly coming)

I would assume that George Mason would be the first invite; since they have the recent Final Four and are one of two available teams to get an at-large. They'd have rivalries with GW, VCU and Richmond from the CAA days.

I'd prefer Stony Brook next for 12; shore up the NYC/Long Island market with a school spending on athletics.

If UMass & VCU depart as well, I'd be looking at Quinnipiac, Siena and Davidson for the other 1-2 two spots.

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Indeed. Looks like the $500 million is based on 12 schools. Will be interesting to see how the Tier 2 split goes with the invitees...but the revenue for say, Xavier, will be 2-3x what they get in the A10, so I doubt they'll be too bothered.


For the invitees...
* It does look like Xavier, Butler, St. Louis are locks.
* Dayton looks to be the next in.
* VCU: For #5, it seems that VCU would have to be the pick...no knock on Creighton, but VCU has been too hot for too long to pass on them. A10 will certainly hope Creighton gets the spot.



So yes, 4-5 A10 schools will be gone.

* UMass sure is hoping for a nBE invite.



I know the instinct will be for the A10 to just repopulate with a few members. With GW, Richmond, St. Joseph's and even LaSalle in the A10...GMU might still be an option.

Then it's the same crew of options from the CAA, MAAC, and Horizon.



That said, I for one might not be too upset (if UMass got a nBE invite) to see the A10 call it quits.
Not that I don't think they'd still be the #2-#3 non-FB conference (C7+5 would be #1...WCC and A10 next)...

...but because I like what it could do to some of the other conferences:


Rhode Island: to the America East
Fordham: to the Patriot
LaSalle: to the MAAC
Saint Joe's: to the Patriot
George Washington: to the Patriot or CAA
St. Bonaventure: to the MAAC
Duquesne: to the MAAC
Richmond: to the Patriot
---
UMass: nBE
VCU: C7 or CAA




But it's more likely that the A10 at 9 (with UMass) or 10 (with VCU) would just remain as is. And rightly so. Still could add GMU and another to get to 12.

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JPShmack's proposed 12-Team A-10 wouldnt be too bad and travel would be nice because you would have 6 sets of pairs:

URI/UMass
Fordham/Stony Brook
St Joe's/LaSalle
St Bonaventure/Duequesne
Geo. Washington/Geo. Mason
VCU/Richmond

There is certainly a chance that Quinn could be right and the A-10 will get picked apart if they drop to 8 members but my guess is that the A-10 schools will be able to work together to rebuild since ultimately all of those schools are basketball focused (except maybe Fordham). The conferences you mentioned would all certainly love to have a piece of the A-10 but i think the revenue from tournament shares the A-10 is sitting on will hold them together. I think the CAA is more vulnerable to the chop shop treatment because that league is so diverse in terms of public/private, football/no football, as well as geography. I see them having a hard time making any membership decisions after the departure of Geo. Mason and America East sweeping in and grabbing the northern wing as well as Delaware and James Madison for football purposes while Towson and William & Mary look to the Patriot. College of Charleston and UNC Wilmington will be left looking for a comfortable southern conference.

I don't think the A10 could get picked apart when the remaining schools would still be better than most conferences. Not flashy, but still better.

I think VCU is key. As JP mentioned, if they stay, you have 10 and just need to add a pair to be at 12. GMU seems the best fit, and it leaves some room for #12. I think Siena is still a real option over Stony Brook due to the existing A10 interest...but SBU is a better fit.

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I thought in one of the reports I read, it said that VCU would be a hard one to agree on since they'd be the only public school, when there are 5 solid private school options.

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I've changed my mind on this a few times but...I really like the chances of the A10 after losing 4 to the C7 going to 14.

With UMass possibly looking for an upgrade to the nBE/CUSA as a full member and possibly VCU/Richmond/Dunquesne get poached by the Catholics in the future I think they might feel the need to insulate themselves once again.

George Mason and Siena (both long rumored to be invited) seem like the best picks for 11/12.

I don't think that the A10 with triple up on Philly w/ Drexel, nor go further South now that Charlotte is gone and go for Davidson, nor go West again (assuming everyone West of PA is gone) for Detroit, Creighton, or Witchita St.

I also think the it'll be hard to sell Stony Brook to leave the AE now that they and the CAA just convinced Albany to upgrade and join the other three AE members in the CAA.

That leaves us with Hofstra and Northeastern. Hofstra basically does the same thing for the A10 that Stoney Brook would have but they have no fb therefor they are less of a flight risk; and Northeastern helps give UMass and URI an easy bus trip and keeps the A10 in the state if UMass leaves. Plus it kicks the CAA (one of their better competitors) out of NY/NE completely which could be both benefitical in recruiting and any possible media deals.

Also divisions would be pretty easy. NY/NE schools in the North and PA/DC/VA schools in the South

North-StBon/Siena/UMass/Northeastern/RhodeIsland/Fordham/Hofstra
South-Dunquesne/LaSalle/StJoes/GWU/GMU/VCU/Richmond

Plus the backups for any future defections are already built into the system you have Drexel/Davidson in the South and schols like Iona/Quinpipiac in the North that are easy to plug-n-play.

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I really don't foresee the A-10 being picked apart.

Fordham might fit in the Patriot, but EVERYONE ELSE is much better off staying put (and even Fordham is).

#1 - Let's list all the remaining teams in the East to get an at-large in the last 15 seasons:

GW, St Joe's, Richmond, Bona, URI, UMass, George Mason, Iona. End of List.

So, LaSalle is going to decide they're better off in a league with two of them, rather than six of them? I mean, I suppose they could think "we're better than those schools, so divide and conquer." But what's going to happen to recruiting when they join a "lesser league" ? It would be worse than if they stayed together.

#2 - Without Xavier and Temple, et al; those guys will have better records. Instead of losing to Xavier and Temple, they'll play each other again.

LaSalle vs remaining A-10 members:
2012: 8-3 (act: 9-8)
2011: 5-6 (act: 7-11)
2010: 4-6 (act: 4-12)
2009: 6-4 (act: 9-8)
2008: 8-3 (act: 9-9)

LaSalle's gonna be 11-5 or 12-4 instead of 9-8. The A-10 demise won't be as severe as everyone thinks it will be. The big hit they will take is in recruiting… but at the same time, it's not like LaSalle and Bona are winning recruiting wars against Xavier and Temple. And if the A-10 can take George Mason and Siena or Iona, and make the other leagues worse off than they are now, they're going to have the same pecking order as before.

The only problem they have is that they are most likely going to react the wrong way, and schedule tougher OOC to offset the loss of Xavier/Temple, not realizing that what makes Xavier/Temple good RPI games is the fact that they have good records in conference. If they simply change NOTHING about their scheduling principles (even schedule EASIER) they can keep being a multi-bid league.


The A-10 understands RPI. If you want proof, look at their WBB schedule. Since they added Charlotte and Saint Louis, the A-10 has played only 14 conference games on the women's side. Because they want to give themselves as many chances to win OOC games as possible. And that's why they have been a multi-bid league every year since, instead of 1 or 2.

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My afinity for Stony Brook is that they are spending dough on athletics.

I think Siena is a more "classical fit" with the private schools leaving. But I like the growth potential of Stony Brook. You bring up a good problem: Maybe with TWO schools abbreviated SBU, the media will finally get around to calling us BONA instead of SBU or "St. Bon"

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Stony Brook in would mean Hofstra left out of A10, since they are in the same place? Richmond and VCU work but both were conf mates in CAA and VCU was just so damn good.

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One thing to consider for A10 replacements is maybe another midwest/western move.

The A10 has had great success with Xavier and Dayton, this year again with Butler and St. Louis.

So what happens if say the C7 made their moves and 2 of those 4 were left (St. Louis and Dayton...if for some reason the C7 went to 10 with Xavier, Butler and say VCU).

The A10, in theory, could grab Creighton and maybe even 2-3 privates from the region from the MVC, Horizon, etc.



UMass
Rhode Island
Fordham
LaSalle
Saint Joe's
George Washington
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
Duquesne
Dayton
Detroit*
Bradley*
St. Louis
Creighton*

No divisional split, but still could have the scheduling set for home-and-home with the regional schools, with LaSalle being the odd man out (an eastern school tied to the western schools).

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