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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:01 pm 
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lash wrote:
It would have been a total joke this year had the new four team playoff system been in place this year because Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon, and most likely Florida would have made the four team playoff.

Kansas State would have most likely been left out because there was not an extra championship game to compare Kansas State with Florida.

Since the experts would point to Florida as not having the opportunity to play in the SEC championship game by losing to SEC Championship game participant Georgia, Kansas State would have a bigger perception issue as a member of league that did not have a championship game for comparison.

Maybe Kansas State did not deserve to be one of the four teams if the system would have been in place this year by losing in the Fiesta Bowl, one thing for certain the University of Florida did not belong either based on getting totally pounded by Big East co champ Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. The fact is perception of the SEC would of helped Florida get one of the four team bids and this is a major problem with college football.

I think the Kansas State football coach and several other Big 12 guys just want a fair comparison by playing the same number of games including a potential 13 championship game to ensure a fair comparison of making the four team playoff.

The OOC cupcake games can be corrected with stronger OOC schedules for better comparison of which schools deserve one of the four playoff sports, the championship game comparison is at the mercy of a very stupid and outdated NCAA rule requiring 12 members to play this made for TV 13 regular season game.

I believe most of the current power leagues would welcome a Big 12 championship with or without 12 schools to make it more fair comparison of which schools are selected for the new four team playoff.

Either all in NCAA or all out in major football

Again maybe this is a test to get traction for the power leagues to split from the NCAA.

Here's where the debate comes in...what will the "selection committee" do? If they are just picking 1, 2, 3, 4 then why do we have them?

It's obviously going to be more than that. It's been written that 1&2 are locks to make it in and after that they'd give preference for conference champions (I've seen within top 6).

This year ND was 1 and Bama 2...both in automatically.

But Florida 3 and Oregon 4 were both not champs of their leagues so I find their inclusion less assured, they might not make it in.

With the Big 12 champ K State at 5 and the PAC12 champ Stanford at 6, I could see a real push to get them in.

Stanford over Oregon seems like an easy move the committee could make (not saying they would) and bumping them or the 2nd SEC team for the Big 12 champ sitting at #5 doesn't seem to be that crazy of an idea, in fact that is likely the reason we are even going to have this committee.

We'll see when they flush out all the plans for the new playoff but for now I think the Big 12 is just keeping its options open.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:27 pm 
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If anyone questions why the Big 12 does not want to expand to 12 schools with more mouths to feed, just look at the competition revenue projections from the SEC.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/co ... s/1836389/

Based on this report of the SEC.

Big 12 revenue is 20 million per school based on 21.4 per year project for SEC for difference of 1.4 million

SEC Network will generate 1.5 million per school which is probably a wash with Big 12 Tier 3 rights acquired by individual schools?

Post Season 7.1 million which will probably be close to the same as the Big 12 post season?

50 million for major conference playoff will be probably the same for the Big 12 .

40 million for Sugar Bowl the same as the SEC. This will be slightly more per Big 12 school with only 10 schools to share 40 million.

Based on this report when both the Big 12 with 10 schools and the SEC with 14 are in the high end of the contacts, the Big 12 will be somewhere in the neighborhood of the SEC.

The Big 12 will probably be somewhere in the range of 30 million per school compared to the SEC and Big Ten at 34 million.

4 million dollars per school less is not too far off from the two major power conferences.

If you add 2 additional schools this gap becomes more significant.

The gap could increase from 4 to 10 million with expansion of two schools.

This SEC report should be very worrisome for fans of the ACC.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:41 pm 
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Lash,thanks for posting USAToday list of projected conference tv numbers.Here is article out of KC(previously posted in another thread)using projected Forbes revenue numbers showing Big 12 being the average per school league leader for 2012-2013.Link at http://www.kansascity.com/2013/01/16/40 ... -list.html


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:44 pm 
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So much for the idea of 18 or - God forbid -20 team conferences.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 10:57 am 
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Dennis Dodd blog article with comments from Big 12 Commish regarding league expansion discussions expected at Big 12 meetings later this month.Link at http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... -expansion


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:43 pm 
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freaked4collegefb wrote:
Dennis Dodd blog article with comments from Big 12 Commish regarding league expansion discussions expected at Big 12 meetings later this month.Link at http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... -expansion

If the Big 12 did not want to wait for the Big Ten to strike a second time for the ACC, what would be a probable move for the league to take. To me it not a matter of if and just when the Big Ten comes back for two more ACC schools.

I do believe the Big 12 would like both Clemson and Florida State eventually when the dust settles from Big Ten advancements.

A conservative move would be to expand to 12 schools a allow a championship game to observe some of the cost for taking two teams. This would then leave 2 to 4 openings depending on 14 or 16 and openings eventually for Florida State and Clemson.

Unlike the Big East and ACC which expanded for markets, basketball and sometimes academic benefits, the Big 12 has always expanded primarily with football in mind.

The Big 12 has so many options it could expand in any direction, however, I believe east and south are the most likely scenario.

I also do not believe the Big 12 will leave West Virginia on a island without close by rivalries to ease travel. The Big 12 will always look out for WVU because the school drastic measures and legal process is why the Big 12 was able to complete the new TV contract and GORs.

There are two schools that could be possibly considered if the Big 12 wants to help grow a couple programs per the comment of Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten.

Cincinnati would be obviously a good choice to provide WVU a close by rival.

Keeping the bigger view in mind of eventually wanting Clemson and Florida State in the mix, there is one school which had rumors of WVU Athletic Director pushing for the Big 12. East Carolina?

I dismissed this East Carolina rumor at the time because everyone just assumed at that time Louisville and Cincinnati were the obvious choice if the Big 12 expanded to 12 with benefits to WVU included.

East Carolina could be just as easy of a travel partner for WVU as Louisville or that matter Cincinnati.

East Carolina is primarily football focused which the Big 12 will always take into account with any expansion.

East Carolina would be bridge from WVU into South Carolina and Florida.

Keeping in mind an eventual travel partner for Florida State could be another Florida school, South Florida?

If the Big 12 wanted to expand now and get back to 12 schools, East Carolina and USF could be the two schools that fit into the larger geographical puzzle once the league someday is maxed out at 16 members.

If the rumors hold true the SEC really wants North Carolina and Duke and the Big Ten really wants Virginia and Georgia Tech, that would leave the following school available for the Big 12.

East Carolina
USF

Florida State
Clemson

Virginia Tech
North Carolina State

Using the pod system which would be required for 16 member leagues, the Big 12 could break up in the following:

Pod 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Pod 2: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State

Pod 3: Iowa State, WVU, Virginia Tech, East Carolina

Pod 4: North Carolina State, Clemson, Florida State, USF

Iowa State would be the odd team out here, however, in Pod system would always be able to play close by Kansas schools.

Just for fun, the Pac 12 is not left out and would finally get its eastern exposure with the following pod of the following four schools?

Pac 16 Eastern Pod

Pitt
Syracuse
Boston College
Notre Dame


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:47 pm 
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lash wrote:
Pac 16 Eastern Pod

Pitt
Syracuse
Boston College
Notre Dame



Hot damn! I like this idea! I've been wondering what's going to happen with those schools.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 1:18 pm 
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lash wrote:
Using the pod system which would be required for 16 member leagues, the Big 12 could break up in the following:

Pod 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Pod 2: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State

Pod 3: Iowa State, WVU, Virginia Tech, East Carolina

Pod 4: North Carolina State, Clemson, Florida State, USF

Iowa State would be the odd team out here, however, in Pod system would always be able to play close by Kansas schools.

I like this theory but think you are way off on East Carolina and USF.

Why take USF if Miami is available? Spare me the death penalty thing, the Miami/FSU combo would be an easy grab w/o dipping into the non AQ pool. Also if given the choice do you think WVU/VA Tech would want to take ECU or Pitt? Seems like two pretty obvious picks over ECU/USF.

Pod 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Pod 2: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State

Pod 3: Iowa State, WVU, Virginia Tech, Pitt

Pod 4: North Carolina State (or Duke), Clemson, Florida State, Miami

Also, I've been saying this for a while now and u even noticed it...Iowa State doesn't not want to be in the Eastern pods, they want to be with Kansas/KSU/OU/OSU, and most likely WVU/Pitt/VA Tech don't want them either. The only way that works is to break into two 9 team division with the current Big12-WVU on one side, and the ACC expansion targets+WVU on the other, and for #17/18 I think Syracuse/Lville both fit the bill perfectly.

West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
East: Syracuse, Louisville, WVU, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina State (or Duke), Clemson, Florida State, Miami

This leaves ND in a pickle in the ACC with only Wake Forest and Boston College who will most likely add (if they can) UConn, Temple, Cincy, USF, UCF, ECU, and most likely the rest of the new Big East putting them in another bad position. Either they can join up with the Catholic 7 in non-fb sports, or finally bite the bullet and rescue long time rival BC in the process by joining up with the Big 10 leaving only Wake Forest out in the cold.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 1:43 pm 
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The B1G will have to be the first to move again on the ACC for the breaks to happen. It shall come down to the negotiated terms of the Maryland transition and if the financial incentives the B1G offers shall contine to lure. Doubt if the SEC moves first, but certainly the SEC has a contingency plan in place. There's buzz about Texas, but that's not reality, given the circumstances. The SEC would be looking at North Carolina first, and vibes are UNC would favor the SEC if moving became a must. Two from the research triangle may not be out of the question.

Again, all this is speculative, and if the B1G becomes successful with new aggressive efforts. I still think the B1G's ultimate objective is to incorporate Notre Dame. Their moves may center around this unsettling initiative. Notre Dame could solidify the ACC by offering up 3 more fb games to the ACC and become a full ACC member. But they shall not.

ND has more immediate things to worry about, such as sympathetic stories about ficticious Internet girlfriends as build-up to potential Heisman awards and side-story hype for the media prior to playing 'Bama.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:16 pm 
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If the ACC is honestly going through the motions for a network, I think FSU and Clemson are off the table until a B1G or SEC invite come their way.

BYU's probably one of the movers. MWC is a backup should the B12 not support expansion. #12 is anyone's guess, but I suspect it's either Cincy or Rice (yeah, really).

UConn's not going to take the bait. They are the "next in" for the ACC, and I guess we can scratch off SDSU. I suspect SDSU had been exploring its options outside of the MWC and Big East, but were turned down. If it comes out SDSU did approach the Big XII, then the Big XII made a huge mistake.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 6:08 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
lash wrote:
Using the pod system which would be required for 16 member leagues, the Big 12 could break up in the following:

Pod 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Pod 2: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State

Pod 3: Iowa State, WVU, Virginia Tech, East Carolina

Pod 4: North Carolina State, Clemson, Florida State, USF

Iowa State would be the odd team out here, however, in Pod system would always be able to play close by Kansas schools.

I like this theory but think you are way off on East Carolina and USF.

Why take USF if Miami is available? Spare me the death penalty thing, the Miami/FSU combo would be an easy grab w/o dipping into the non AQ pool. Also if given the choice do you think WVU/VA Tech would want to take ECU or Pitt? Seems like two pretty obvious picks over ECU/USF.

Pod 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

Pod 2: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State

Pod 3: Iowa State, WVU, Virginia Tech, Pitt

Pod 4: North Carolina State (or Duke), Clemson, Florida State, Miami

Also, I've been saying this for a while now and u even noticed it...Iowa State doesn't not want to be in the Eastern pods, they want to be with Kansas/KSU/OU/OSU, and most likely WVU/Pitt/VA Tech don't want them either. The only way that works is to break into two 9 team division with the current Big12-WVU on one side, and the ACC expansion targets+WVU on the other, and for #17/18 I think Syracuse/Lville both fit the bill perfectly.

West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
East: Syracuse, Louisville, WVU, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina State (or Duke), Clemson, Florida State, Miami

This leaves ND in a pickle in the ACC with only Wake Forest and Boston College who will most likely add (if they can) UConn, Temple, Cincy, USF, UCF, ECU, and most likely the rest of the new Big East putting them in another bad position. Either they can join up with the Catholic 7 in non-fb sports, or finally bite the bullet and rescue long time rival BC in the process by joining up with the Big 10 leaving only Wake Forest out in the cold.

thalamus,
From my observations over the years, conference alignment cannot or does not always take the direct path. In other words, there is always surprises. Some schools just happen to be in the right place at the right time and some schools get left out in the cold.

Big East voting against admitting Penn State is a very good example of expansion taking a surprise turn when the Big Ten expanded beyond its name sake for 11 schools and grabbed up Penn State. This decision today is why the waves continue with expansion.

Florida State is most likely regretting turning its back on the SEC for a more easy route in the ACC. Bet the school wishes it could go back in time to take South Carolina place.

Most recent movements have charter ACC member Maryland jumping to the Big Ten and allowing Rutgers which seemed all but left out in the cold suddenly in the warm confines of the Midwest based league.

In a perfect world where we could start all over, alignment would probably have many teams playing in different leagues.

I believe the Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12 , and SEC are indirectly working to create four super conferences. It is why we have the Rose and Sugar bowl alignments with payouts of 40 million for each of those four super leagues. It is precisely why the Wisconsin Athletic Director is on record as stating why the Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12, and SEC should split from the NCAA and control their own destiny.

I likewise believe these power leagues want to control all future football playoff money and do not want a full blown 8 or 16 member play off to allow upstart leagues any more access than already have.

This is where the pod system actually helps with control. Splitting into four pods allow for two semi final and a final conference game leading into the four team playoffs.

Each of the four super conferences would fill the void during December with these conference playoffs and reduce the demand for fans wanting a full blown playoff increasing the current four team playoff that will be installed in 2014.

Additional money would be made by these conference semi final and final conference games and keep the money with each of the four power leagues.

Of course the NCAA will have to approve this format or get out of way of progress.

Now back to Miami and Pitt in place of East Carolina and USF. I agree that both of these schools are a better choice, however, both may not jump until the Big Ten makes another raid on the ACC.

If the Big 12 wants to expand to 12 prior to the ACC becoming more unstable, East Carolina and USF may just be in the right place and the right time(i.e. Rutgers to the Big Ten)


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 6:57 pm 
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The Big 12 can be proactive, that's for sure...but it's likely to prevent the SEC from topping them. That said, things could work out where they can be reactive and get the schools they want.

For instance, it seems everyone is waiting on the Big Ten.

The Big Ten has GA Tech, UVA and UNC in their sites. But they'd need a fourth...and there's all the ACC and Big East to look at. FSU might not have the academics, but who cares at this point. So you've got FSU, Miami, Duke, Boston College, maybe even Notre Dame as options. Maybe even Vanderbilt is they went with a GA Tech, UVA, UNC path.

For the SEC, they'd got VA Tech, NC State for new states, FSU, Clemson and GA Tech for same-states. Clearly FSU is the best option for any conference for football.

So if you're the Big 12, you might back into a situation where you can snag Clemson and Florida State. If not FSU, then Miami is there. It's a win-win.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 7:04 pm 
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Everything above is fine but no way does the Big 12 grab ECU/USF because they are there. They could have had Cinncy/Lville and passed and opted to stay at 10. They are courting FSU/Clemson, I know crazy things have happened but I think Tulane would get the nod over ECU/USF if they absolutely needed 12.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:54 am 
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Quinn wrote:
The Big 12 can be proactive, that's for sure...but it's likely to prevent the SEC from topping them. That said, things could work out where they can be reactive and get the schools they want.

For instance, it seems everyone is waiting on the Big Ten.

The Big Ten has GA Tech, UVA and UNC in their sites. But they'd need a fourth...and there's all the ACC and Big East to look at. FSU might not have the academics, but who cares at this point. So you've got FSU, Miami, Duke, Boston College, maybe even Notre Dame as options. Maybe even Vanderbilt is they went with a GA Tech, UVA, UNC path.

For the SEC, they'd got VA Tech, NC State for new states, FSU, Clemson and GA Tech for same-states. Clearly FSU is the best option for any conference for football.

So if you're the Big 12, you might back into a situation where you can snag Clemson and Florida State. If not FSU, then Miami is there. It's a win-win.


This would be a psychotic solution to their "Only contiguous states rule" though I doubt they would enforce that rule for an exceptional expansion target.

Also how would that be for taking a shot at a rival league. Take one of their best academic schools and then take a school that is in the capital city of their conference.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:40 pm 
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hickory_cornhusker wrote:
This would be a psychotic solution to their "Only contiguous states rule" though I doubt they would enforce that rule for an exceptional expansion target.

Also how would that be for taking a shot at a rival league. Take one of their best academic schools and then take a school that is in the capital city of their conference.


Exactly. To take a shot the return blow could hurt more. Vandy is not going anywhere. GT is in a capital city too down south.
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As to the B1G going into the ACC, and saying "we shall take you, you, and you", and let's add a 4th from the SEC; and then the SEC can have 2nd choice schools in N.C. & Virginia; followed by the B12, the 3rd picker, that just happens to get a couple of real left-overs, Clemson & FSU, the two most viable fb programs in the ACC------suggests a weak, inept, and troubled SEC. And the SEC and B12 are suppose to kiss Delany's ring as exclaim "thank you for the ACC left-overs"? If all this is coming about, then the demise of the SEC should be in the headlines. Where's this Dodd fellow of this?

While it may disappoint many, the ACC may survive. My remarks are not anti-B1G or pushing SEC interests, of which, is undeclared at best. Nor is it affection for the ACC which has done some short-sighted stuff with their plans. Having 18 or 20 member conferences is a direction solely based on greed. However, we can't forget the power of the B1G, they did recently add the two most coveted schools in the history of expansion--Maryland and Rutgers (sic)!

No dismissal of anyone who sees matters unfolding a certain way. And a number of individuals here have similar views. But perhaps what most of us can agree upon, this stuff shakes out with suprises and unpredictable results. Let's face it, WVU ending up in the B12, Boise St. & SDSU were once headed to the BE, Texas & A&M split, MD & Rutgers in the B1G, Mizzou by-passed by the B1G but now in the SEC, the ACC turned hybrid with ND, WAC destroyed, C-USA again in disruption, whatever the heck the BE is now, etc., I just can't buy there's any grand cooperative design. Even the B1G has expanded piecemeal, and can anyone be really convinced their vision is now comprehensive and concrete and attainable without certain derailments and resistance?

We've seen some schools go from one big conference to another. Beyond the FSU & Miami (when independent) stuff years back, there's not been much of two major conferences vying for the same school(s) from the third conference. Well, it shall ultimately get to that because the pool of great additions to pluck grow smaller. The B12 got smart with their GoR moves. I first thought they got too conservative. But they got that line drawn. The ACC had two dissatisfied schools. One left. The other is back in the saddle--for now. Never look pass what one already has, when embarking on expansion.


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