Expansion appears most often from a result of a "moment of opportunity" per a desired target, rather than a grand design falling into place at once. The PAC12 and Big12 are sitting on expansion because the combined ingredients of desirabilty and availability of a preferred school(s) are not in the forefront at the moment. That's why there's so much speculation, or wishful thinking, that a conference such as the ACC will break, giving such new opportunities or generate a ripple effect that could be positive for the top more western-based conferences.

I don't know if this "possibly 18" comment, originating from an alleged B1G source, or generated from an informed individual such as OSU's Gee, has a real serious dimension to it, let alone having found clarity on the real motive on the figure. If the ACC is the target to be the new feeder, the B1G would have to think "18" for any breakage in North Carolina and Virginia schools. Those ACC fans are solid in the State of North Carolina and take those rivalries immensely serious, particularly per bb. Fan backlash is not a matter of could, but would, happen. So the idea is that the B1G takes their picks, and other great picks trickle to the Big12 and elsewhere. There's way more formidable bumps to this effort than extracting a lone Maryland.

The PAC12 is largely a coastal conference (west) as the ACC is (east). The PAC does not have other power conferences to contend with in their domain. The ACC, has two stronger ones (SEC, B1G) overlapping, and a third (B12) reaching with WVU, with perhaps other new ambitions in the territory. The B12 got themselves a GoR, the ACC didn't.

The ACC could lose schools such as Miami, Pitt, and Louisville, and replace/survive without losing its basic identity. But if it involves schools from NC & VA, it really becomes another kind of BE. And a school such as Wake Forest may not be important for ambitions elsewhere, but internally in the ACC coming from basically North Carolina, they are valued as part of the bond.

While the SEC dominates, there's some great SEC-ACC rivalries: UGA-GT, SO. Car.-Clemson, UF-FSU, and now Kentucky-L'ville. Vandy-WFU, though from two states, is continuing with growing notice. Would VPI in the SEC offer something? Well, look how close they are to Knoxville, Tenn. But, VPI coming on their own will take other movement in the ACC. And additional movement by the SEC. There's some complicated entanglements in the ACC, and it differs among the ACC schools.

The bottom line, if the ACC holds, which I personally believe they shall for at least the time-being; the B12 may have to look west a bit more if they truly desire to expand anytime soon. Otherwise, it is types such as Cincy and USF that would be truly available eastward.

The ACC is really the old BE mixed with some ACC teams.

Miami,VATECH,Pitt,BC,Syracuse,ND and Louisville.

The B10 does not want Duke,BC,Wake Forest

The SEC want VATECH and NC ST.

I agree, except for Miami...were it not for the bad-boy image of the football program, it would have been UMFL in the conference instead of FSU. Although, I'll throw another the ACC could lose and survive: Virginia Tech. Probably one of the most overrated programs in the country. I don't know how the ACC would feel if VPI administrators told the conference they were talking to Big XII officials...to what sincerity the ACC values VPI, we may never fully know, but were they to walk, I don't think the core of the conference would lose sleep.

I think western expansion is what both the ACC and Big XII need to do.

I basically agree with you Cutter. On the Miami point, I'd also concur taking in the context of a given time period and what other schools could be involved in such a situation. As to the ACC moving westward, the conference may still be interested in UCONN in the NE, but could also see Cincy. Hardly much else close by that's now desirable.

VPI is an interesting discussion. Maybe they have grown into the ACC and now feel bonded with the traditional core. Agree though, within the ACC, VPI may not be valued as the stalwart the way schools such as UNC, Duke, UVA, NCSU, and Clemson personify.

Some posters keep stating VPI and NC State are headed to the SEC. I saw a Bleachers Report blog from last May suggesting such; but that's hardly evidence. I live right in SEC and ACC turf, and have seen nothing from conference officials, University administrators, and local sports journalists offering any speculation on it. Maybe when these claims are stated, such would be coupled with the credible source. That's not dismissing that one day VPI and/or NCSU could become SEC members among other possibilities; but the idea that unsubstantiated rumors are repeated enough, such shall make it happen, is no assurance or confirms the preferred objective of the SEC whatever it may be. On the other hand, the B1G has released certain vibes about further expansion, but that also carries unsubstantiated rumors.

I think the ACC acquired the best programs that are most like the generic ACC institutional profile. Either they are "small," academically rigorous public schools (Pittsburgh) or prestigious private ones (UMFL, BC, Cuse, ND). Only FSU, VT, and Louisville don't exactly fit that type, but, pretty much all of the "new gang" could leave the conference and the ACC would survive. It's because of those schools in the Carolinas and the one in Virginia still make up the core.

The next "ACC-like" schools that would fit the profile? Army, Navy, Tulane, Rice, SMU, Buffalo, and UMOH. UConn and UMass are both out there, and Cincy and Temple are further out...but none of them, other than the SA's, would add any value to the conference's revenue stream. It's kind of why Tulane and Rice make the most sense (to me, anyway) as targets...go west, get a network, and now you're in the best swath of recruiting territory enjoyed by any one major conference.

It's the same logic with the Big XII going with BYU, UNM, and/or SDSU. Get that pipeline to the west and between TX, the Appalachians, and CA, it's going to make for an extremely strong conference in terms of visibility. Picking off programs like Cincy, while I feel strongly about their overall value as a program, only adds to the ranks of schools who would likely bolt eastward if given the opportunity. Same with USF...it's these institutions that administratively see themselves as "east coast" schools. They will be homesick when they're making these trips to Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

The SEC wants UNC and will grab Duke to get them.

The only question in my mind is "Does the SEC go past 16 to get into Virginia" and if so, "Who will be #18 to go with Virginia Tech?" NC State? 3 from same state? FSU? Does UVa spurn the B1G to stay with UNC and Va Tech?

If the FSU and Miami leave, the ACC survives. (replaced by USF and UCF)
If BC leaves, the ACC survives. (replaced by UConn)
If Virginia Tech leaves, the ACC survives. (replaced by Cincinnati)

IF 2 of the following leaves, UNC-Duke-Virginia-Virginia Tech-Clemson, the ACC does not survive. They become the Big East just like the Big East has become Conference USA.

Does the Big 12 or SEC want Duke or Wake Forest and their tiny football stadiums?
No

Do Virginia or UNC want the B12 ?
No

The B12 will look to FSU,Miami,Clemson,Syracuse,BC and ND Pitt to go to 16.

The SEC will look toward NC sT and VATECH to go to 16

The B10 will look toward UVA,UNC,GATECH and Pitt/ND to go to 18

The ACC Duke,Wake Forest will look toward CINN,UCONN,USF,UCF and Navy and the C7 for other than football.

Living close to UNC, and Duke & NCSU, these schools & their fans are ACC first, right where they are at. Even know a couple of semi-involved figures on track with that. If UNC was very unlikely up for grabs, the B1G could well lose coming up against the SEC.

UNC, UVA, Duke, NCSU are not breaking unless a disaster. VPI wants to be with them. Clemson & GT would rather be with them than way out across the Mississippi River (if not the SEC). Even FSU--- they could have left, but didn't.

Louisville? Thank you Maryland.

Giant tv DOES COUNT.
The SEC,BIG10 and BIG 12 have that,the ACC does not.
Miami,FSU,Clemson will leave for the B12 after the Maryland suit becomes clearer.GaTech,Pitt,Syracuse, bc will al move .
So would Louisville if given the offer.

Article out of Ft Worth discussing possible future Big 12 expansion at http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/02/03 ... rizon.html

Appreicate you sharing this, Freaked. It's a story that's getting repeated, so the idea is certainly being explored and talked about between the B12 and the ACC. Though the B12 has the GoR, that does not mean there's an absence of vulnerbilites regarding the future playoff situation and expansion for both conferences.

It is hard though, to see what specifically can be gained from a scheduling alliance. Coming up with impressive schedules are not a problem for many of the schools now. It has to be something much deeper for expansion protection (ACC mostly for now) and being assured a playoff spot (B12 & ACC).

The article implies that the B1G wants 16 (and 18 has been dropped before but sounds excessive). The SEC would do the same.

If the SEC and the ACC did take two each from the ACC, that would leave the ACC with 10 current all-sports members. Combined with the B12, that would be a 20 member coop. conference. OK, doable and the combo conference would be larger than the other mega conferences.

Hypothetically, if the B1G and the SEC both went to 18, assuming all the extractions are from the ACC, that would leave the ACC with six members. So the B12 merges with those six and has one 16 member conference. They can easily reach 18 themselves by including BE members Cincy & UCONN--to strengthen the ACC-side; or if ND becomes fully part of it, then Cincy or UCONN.

OK, then such above could become all pretty and achieved, and three of the four mega-conferences are all in-place. The PAC12 would need to find 4 to 6 on their own to keep up, depending on if others are 16 or 18 (of course, not all may be at the same #s', but pressures to even things out per playoffs, and new aspirants to be part of the select groupings shall always be there). The PAC12 would want some B12 schools if they HAD to move in such a direction. If that happened, thus the B12/ACC configuration would be reduced. And the 16 numbers would be more plausible for all involved.

I am sure the TV bigwigs want all this. It will be fewer contracts, maybe less expense and more profits, with more power/control to select featured games.

As stated before though, the devil is in the details. And these conferences are in competition with each other. It's not a conference at the Chicago Hilton among all the power conferences to decide who goes where. It's talk between the B12 and the ACC to stay in the top of the game.

The SEC in particular, is not going to let themselves be choked from two ends & the middle with Delany plucking several prime ones on/in their southern turf. The SEC has never been idiots before at this, and certainly not when they have been in the lofty position they are now for a very sustained period.

Well, 4 mega-conferences of 16-18 would be neat and tidy, but what exactly are the implications of implementing that format ?

Would the 4 conference champions immediately be seeded into the Final Four for the Football National Championship ?

Not sure the NCAA could sign on to excluding everyone else....
perhaps you are implying that once the "Big 4" are all set up, they withdraw from the NCAA and stage their own championship ?
Or would they push the NCAA to subdivide D-1 football into The Big 4 // FBS = what's left of ACC,BE,MAC,SBC,CUSA,MWC // FCS ?

From my perspective, this new "BCS" format already leaves the Big 5 in control of 85 - 90% of the money (depending on whether a non-big 5 team cracks the final 4 in a given year).
I'm not sure what is pushing further expansion...
egotism ? Delany's got a lot of that...
more revenue for the conf. cable network ? OK, but you'll have that many more mouths to feed.

When you look at an SEC school (Tennessee) that should have an immensely profitable athletics department, yet they are struggling to break even,
it seems to show that much of the increase in money from all this craziness is just going to line the pockets of high-priced coaches.

What can stabilize this ?
ACC would be well-advised to adopt GOR and leverage their BB to create an ACC Netwrok (in an effort to get their per school revenue on a par with the other guys).
Otherwise if the Big Ten / SEC are at the door and nobody in the ACC wants to leave, but doesn't trust the other schools not to, Swofford could discuss full-scale merger with the Big XII.

I'm confused by your statement? You do realize that NCAA governs these schools football as far as establishing and enforcing the rules but these schools have basically created their own way of crowning a championship outside of the NCAAs control. The NCAA has no say who gets picked to go to the MNC and won't have any say in the new playoff (unless you've seen otherwise, but I'm pretty sure they are establishing and selling the rights as a collective outside of the NCAA's control which would lead me to beleive that the NCAA will still not have any additional say).

The only thing that could stop this would be the gang of 5 (possibly soon to be the gang of 6) who could all vote against the Big 4 and try to establish some access for them but if they push too hard the Big 4 may just split off (like you said) from the rest and create a new division like when they split D1-A and D-AA or split off from the NCAA altogether.

Obviously the Big 4 would start it then conferences like the ACC(post raids), MWC, and MAC could be added later on condition that they go to 16 that way the Big 4 would have a 4 to 3 majority vote and the lesser conferences would just be happy to be in the club despite not having the same access to the playoffs/elite bowls and it would add some solid bball schools like Memphis or UConn for a possible bball tournament that would take the power teams away from the NCAA.

_________________
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...

Why not a complete merger of the ACC and Big 12?

Split the 24 schools into four six team divisions. Partition the NCAA to allow semi final conference games along with both Simi final games advancing to play in the championship game. Semi final games at two highest rated schools advancing to neutral site for conference championship game third week of December in warm city site (Dallas? Miami?)

North: Pitt, WVU, Louisville, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State

East: Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke

South: NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State

West: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Texas

For example the first week of December East Division Champion Virginia Tech visits North Division Champion Kansas State while South Division Champion Florida State, visits West Division Champion Oklahoma.

Third week of December semi final winners of Kansas State plays Oklahoma in Dallas with winner advancing to four team playoff.

Champions game loser advances to four team playoff or Sugar Bowl.

Simi final losers advance to Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, or Champs Bowl.

Basketball takes top four teams of each division to NYC for 16 team mega conference tournament.

ACC schools sign 13 year GORs to match Big 12.

SEC and Big Ten forced to raid Big East, MAC, MWC, or Conf USA to have enough teams to play semi final and championship games. Hey NCAA guess you have to have at minimum of 24 teams to qualify for semi final and championship game format for conference playoff formats eh!