Here's what is holding everything up....

They are currently negotiating exit fees / departure date for the C7.
The C7 want to leave in 2014, but right now they are contractually obligated to pay an exit fee to leave prior to 2015.
I think Aresco and the football schools are amenable to them leaving in 2014, but the exit fee negotiation is tied to a lot of other money issues...
(buying the "Big East" name, deals regarding the MSG basketball tournament contract, how much of the $60+ million pile of money the C7 get to walk away with).

Assuming the C7 plans to invite 5 more to become the 12-team BB Big East, they can't really issue a formal invitation to those schools that can be acted upon,
until they establish the date of C7 departure (for instance Xavier will likely be invited; WHEN ?
The Xavier announcement would typically state a date at which time they would leave the A-10).

I suspect the C7 has a pretty good idea of who they want as commissioner and the other schools, but they will move forward on that OFFICIALLY only after the details
of their departure from the Big East have been finalized.

I would imagine there's going to be a rapid-fire progression once the divorce is final.

I don't see why dividing up other people's money should be so tough; and I don't see why basketball doesn't use the NCAA shares of the leaving schools to buy the Big East name with.

It seems like it should be simple:
Everyone takes what they earned.
C7 is the Big East
Football finds a new name, gets the NCAA Units from SU, Pitt, ND, WVU, Louisville.
MSG as hoops Tournament site is up to MSG to decide.

And it should be that simple, because the C7 can't afford more than that as a lump-sum payment to the BEFB side; and the BEFB doesn't want some kind of long-term payment plan… because half of them want out to a better league.


I think once they hammer out a deal, it'll be like the Mountain West announcement. Where we get:
- Hi, I'm the new commissioner of the Big East.
- Effective next season, the Big East will be comprised of Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, DePaul; as well as Xavier, Butler, _____, _____, and _____ who accepted invitations this morning to join us.
- Our games will be on the Fox and Fox Sports family of networks.
- Our men's basketball conference tournament site will be announced at a later date.
- Thanks for coming.

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Things have been pretty quiet with the Catholic 7 lately since the divorce has yet to be finalized but I wonder if the Catholic 7 would consider a 14 member league. Before this year's basketball season it looked as though St Louis would be an odd man out and wouldn't become part of the new league but with the Bilikens' success so far this year they are making a strong argument for inclusion. Sure 14 would not be nearly as neat and tidy as 12 but it could still work:

East--Providence, St John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, Richmond, VCU
West--Dayton, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, St Louis

I don't think 14 is really an option right now, they have a deal from FOX which is for the whole package and I don't think it will go up if they add more schools.

That's the list though, but cross off either VCU or Richmond and STL or Dayton (seems to me that Dayton/Richmond are out)

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with the latest developments posted on the csn board. It said that Creighton is too far west, Richmond over VCU and Siena, Detroit are candidates(long shots, more like A10 options).
EAST-SHU, Providence, G'town, SJU, Nova, Richmond*
WEST-DePaul, Marquette, Xavier*, Butler*, St.Louis*, Dayton*

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According to John Feinstein at The Washington Post:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/catholic-7-schools-including-georgetown-charting-a-new-yet-familiar-path/2013/02/16/f1eaa870-7876-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_story.html

Right now the "All-American Athletic Conference" has five eastern schools and two midwest schools. Let's pretend/assume they want to avoid non-Catholic, non-football playing schools. I will jump to conclusions and add Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis, and Creighton. That makes the balance 6-5 in favor of the midwest. Is there a sixth eastern school that would fit? Holy Cross? St. Joseph?(Villanova would likely say no. St.Bonaventure? Detroit-Mercy? (I know, not exactly east) Marist?

Feinstein's article was a great read and since he writes for the Washington Post I think we can trust him as a credible source.

It is interesting that elements of the Catholic 7 feel that Creighton is too far West for non-revenue sports travel when only the other Midwestern schools would be visiting on an annual basis--the East Coast members would only be visiting every other year and that trip to Omaha could be paired with a trip to another Midwestern destination to save travel costs.

I am also curious as to how Detroit Mercy and Siena have crept into the conversation. I wouldn't consider either program a big media draw and neither of them is performing at the level that the VCU Rams are at the moment. Personally, I think the question that should be asked is which Richmond school gets the last Eastern slot--the private one or the public one that's hot right now.

I'm also wondering why there is any speculation at all regarding whether or not Butler is on board with the move--with all things considered I feel like they can hit up a few alums and scrape up the money to buy their way out of the A-10 and honestly I think the A-10 would want them gone if they were losing all the other Midwestern members.

Initially I was very concerned for the A-10, then less so when the Catholic 7 said they were only going to 12 and even less when Creighton was likely. But now it seems possible (maybe even likely) all 5 expansion targets will be out of the A-10. This would drop them to just 9 members, 6 private and 3 public. I think at this point Fordham would have to look to the Patriot League and I think there is a strong possibility they would join. That would leave 5 private schools in the A-10 and the MAAC would have 11 schools. A perfect fit to go to 16.

So the question becomes, do they want to leave behind UMass, URI, and VCU? UMass has FBS aspirations and will likely leave on their own anyway. URI, I can't see that being a big loss. VCU they probably don't want to lose, but they may head back to the CAA on their own after how much the A-10 stands to lose.

I am highly curious to see who wins the A-10 vs CAA battle coming up. And I also want to know if the AEast is trying to make a move as well.

I think you and I are on the same page here. I really think we are going to see some serious post-Catholic 7 realignment jockeying between the conferences in the Northeastern United States:

The A-10 is at the top of the pecking order but deeply divided between public and private and could very well be picked apart if they can't get their ducks in a row quickly after the C-7 announcement.

The CAA is next in line but they too are highly factionalized between northern/southern, public/private, football/non-fb factions.

The MAAC, as the private school bb league, could stand to gain from picking up members from the leagues above them or have their best members poached (and then have to turn to the NEC for replacements).

America East is a public school league but some of their members (Stony Brook and Albany) could be attractive to leagues above them but could also have a school or 2 land in their lap if a conference above them is picked apart.

At the bottom of the pecking order stands the NEC. The cumulative effect of realignment is bound to hurt them.

At the end of the day I think one of these leagues is going to disappear as a result of realignment. The Patriot League is safe b/c they can rest on their academics to hold their league together but as for the others, their commissioners ought to be on guard and actively pursuing expansion candidates b/c if they fail to be proactive their league might not still be there or be a shadow of its former self.

You mentioned America East--I think their best play in all of this is to target Rhode Island and the northern wing of the CAA (Northeastern, Hofstra, Drexel, and perhaps Delaware too) If they got all of these schools they would have 12 members and would have enough football members to take over administration of CAA football.

I think that's the best play for them as well and it appears that's what they're going for. They tried to grab C Conn and Bryant but failed. I think they'll reconsider it soon enough. A joint power play by the A-10 and AEast is in both of their best interests.

Northeastern - A10
GMU - A10
Hofstra - A10
UNC-Wilmington - ???
Charleston - ???
Drexel - AEast
Towson* - AEast
Delaware* - ???
William & Mary* - Patriot League
James Madison* - Sun Belt

The two southern schools would fit in nicely with the SoCon. I think Davidson will pass on the A-10 and the extra travel. They can sit back and dominate the SoCon. I wonder about Delaware though. A lot of FCS schools are on the move, what's their plan I wonder?

I just wrote this over in the A10 thread...lol

Charleston and UNCW fit in SoCon after they lose a few to FBS (App St, GA SO, and possibly UTC) I could see them taking these two quickly and doing a fb merger with the Big South (especially if they loses Liberty).

UDel could upgrade, I know it hasn't been a hot topic but they've talked about it before and with all there other teams moving on/up/around them they might decide its worth it to pull the trigger.

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A10 has a TV contract, SoCon doesn't, that could make Davidson take the A10 invite if offered.

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NFL CHAMPS '29 '30 '31 '36 '39 '44 '61 '62 '65 '66 '67 '96 '10

BW/WAC/MWC CHAMPS '77 '82 '85 '88 '89 '91 '92 '93 '99 '12
['08 NCAA BASEBALL CHAMPS]

My best guess for Delaware, if there's a mass exodus from the CAA, is that they go North to America East--this would satisfy Delaware's need for an FCS football home and they would have neighbors in America East in Drexel, Towson, and UMBC.

Tkalmus--I agree about UNC Wilmington and College of Charleston to the SoCon and SoCon football merging with Big South football or at least cherrypicking the Big South for their best football schools. The SoCon's 7 football members would merge nicely with the Big South's 5:

VMI
Elon
W Carolina
UT Chattanooga
Furman
Wofford
Presbyterian
Citadel
Gardner-Webb
Charleston Southern
Coastal Carolina
Samford

Mark Blaudschun blog article(previously posted in another thread)discussing BE split and future of Catholic 7 at http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=5238