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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:30 pm 
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Interesting Discussion.

I've been one that's been saying the ACC is not doomed. Can there me more shifts with losing and adding---yes; but it would be hypothetical and premature to say who would go where, given the loyalties, politics, and other uncontrolable factors that shape developments.

Suppose the B1G is motivated to reach 16 quickly; or would have to go 18 just to get the two for 16 from the ACC, assuming most or all would come from there. And, the SEC would be at it again, maybe near forced to, or opportunities for certain schools are too desirable to pass up.

Say, again hypothetically of course, after the B1G and the SEC are done extracting from the ACC, the ACC is left with eight to ten full members, some of them among the ACC's best in terms of sport's output. Rather than the B12 saying, "we'll just take a couple or so of them", it becomes time for a big package of unification.

WVU went to the B12 which gave them a very respectable home. But the ACC, B1G, and SEC, passed on WVU in their expansions, leaving WVU little options for conference prestige. Likewise, one or two ACC schools are not going to want to head to the B12 unless they have to do so to remain among the elite. As much as some dismiss it, geography is still important. Also, near and tradtional rivalries are important. Access factors for traveling fans have not gone away. But if there is a significant "group" of ACC schools that transition, establishing or retaining a divisional structure that is geographic/traditional friendly, then there is more plausibility.

The B12 can add without ACC schools, though what's out there right now that's available don't excite. Also, the ACC could lose 4 or so, and replace with schools such as UCONN and Cincy. If they had to go further, types such as Temple, Navy fb, Tulane, Rice, etc. may get considered.

The B12 is talking about an alliance. After another raid hit on the ACC, the B1G and ACC consolidate. Say the ACC has 8 left members at worst, which assembles with the B12's 10 members. As part of the deal, WVU shifts to the ATLANTIC COAST division and has 9 members. The MIDLANDS division stays with its 9. This combined 18 would certainly be overall strong in the mega-conference/playoff initiatives. It may be better than each expanding on their own.

Of the Big12/ACC consolidation: MIDLANDS DIV. - UT, TTU, TCU, BU, OU, OSU, UK, KSU, ISU
(readily made division).

Of the Big12/ACC consolidation: ATLANTIC COAST DIV.- (the remaining ACC schools) - very hypothetical example - WVU, VPI, WFU, CU, UM, FSU, GT, L'ville + Cincy (from BE) - geographically sensible
(ACC division abandons very NE presence; strong in Fla./southeast; solid Ohio Valley presence).

Hypotetically for example purposes: The B1G had prior taken - Notre Dame (FT), Pitt, Syracuse, and BC (or UCONN from BE). 18 total - geographically sensible
(The B1G gets the beloved ND as full member -- complete lock on NE).

Hypotetically for example purposes: The SEC had prior taken - UNC, NCSU, Duke, & UVA -- (got the ACC core to break but hang together). 18 total - politically & geographically sensible
(SEC gets expanded into NC & VA with desirable schools -- takes old ACC core largely unbroken (the research triangle, UNC/Duke/NCSU, being together is very important for them; drawback, 3 from NC - but one is private which gives the SEC a 2nd private.)

OK PAC12, your move.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:49 pm 
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I've been saying that for a while, but I have a hard time seeing the SEC jump to 18. I'm not saying they won't but 16 has been talked about, only the Big Ten has said 18.

By that logic I think a raid is more likely than an alliance since the ACC would have 9 members left (after losing 3/ND to B1G and 2 to ACC) which means there would be 9 in the West and 10 in the East.

The only solution would be to add either BYU, Houston, or Tulane as the 10th in the West but I think the Big 12 (by which I mean UT/OU) would rather raid the ACC and cut out a school like Wake Forest or one that over expands the footprint like Syracuse/BC than add one of those above schools to their division (BYU might work if it wasn't for the BYUtv and the Sunday deal).

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 10:46 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
I've been saying that for a while, but I have a hard time seeing the SEC jump to 18. I'm not saying they won't but 16 has been talked about, only the Big Ten has said 18.

By that logic I think a raid is more likely than an alliance since the ACC would have 9 members left (after losing 3/ND to B1G and 2 to ACC) which means there would be 9 in the West and 10 in the East.

The only solution would be to add either BYU, Houston, or Tulane as the 10th in the West but I think the Big 12 (by which I mean UT/OU) would rather raid the ACC and cut out a school like Wake Forest or one that over expands the footprint like Syracuse/BC than add one of those above schools to their division (BYU might work if it wasn't for the BYUtv and the Sunday deal).


I agree that the SEC doesn't want to go past 16 but may find itself where it may be in their best interest to do so.

I do believe that the SEC would like UNC but may have to do grab Duke to get them.
I believe that the SEC wants in Virginia but if they take UNC and Duke that means going past 16 to get there. I do not believe that the SEC would stay at 17 in that scenerio.

I also believe that the B1G is interested in FSU. FSU would be huge for the B1G Ten Network. FSU could bring the BTN an additional $47 million per year in cable fees. The SEC doesn't want FSU but I believe that the SEC doesn't want FSU in the B1G more. I could be wrong, the SEC might not care at all.

I don't think you will see both the B1G and the SEC at 18, one will be 18 and the other will be 16.

The SEC needs to decide if they are ok with the B1G adding UVa, GT, FSU and either UNC or BC and settle for UNC and Duke (or Virginia Tech and NC State) or if they would be more comfortable grabbing UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech and Florida State with the B1G stopping at UVa and Georgia Tech.

Two things are known. Both the SEC and B1G will make more money and they will remain the top 2 conferences.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:20 pm 
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I'm still watching the WV board for the OP to post the supposed GoR. The poster's active on the thread again...still hasn't "occurred" to them to write the thing instead of "waiting" for an opportunity to scan and post. Those WV'ers are a sad, sad sort.

With the news of the nBE's NBC offer, I suspect the B12 just got a nice piece of evidence why it shouldn't expand with the current batch of available schools. I suppose that pretty much leaves BYU and AFA as the realistic priorities, and destroying the ACC as the dream scenario.

So what happens if the B1G decides to stay at 14?

Quote:
OK PAC12, your move.


They'll drop the ninth conference game to do what they can to recoup the losses of what was to be "paydirt" with the B1G-PAC.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:58 pm 
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With the Big Ten planning on the possibility of a 10 game conference schedule and all these discussion of scheduling alliances by the Big 12, what would be the odds the Big 12 may expand with a 11th school only? Not sure if this was discussed in contingency planning meetings a few weeks back.

Expanding with a 11th school would provide the opportunity for balanced five home and away football games and reduce the need from 3 to 2 OOC games. It would retain round robin football and avoid splitting up the Texas and Oklahoma schools into separate divisions.

BYU?
Tulane?
UConn?
Florida State?

Would it take the interest of a school such as Florida State to make it worth the effort to expand with just 11 schools? Or could the possibility of adding BYU as a 11 school provide the interest for TV to make it worth the expansion of an additional school.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:05 pm 
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lash wrote:
With the Big Ten planning on the possibility of a 10 game conference schedule and all these discussion of scheduling alliances by the Big 12, what would be the odds the Big 12 may expand with a 11th school only? Not sure if this was discussed in contingency planning meetings a few weeks back.

Expanding with a 11th school would provide the opportunity for balanced five home and away football games and reduce the need from 3 to 2 OOC games. It would retain round robin football and avoid splitting up the Texas and Oklahoma schools into separate divisions.

BYU?
Tulane?
UConn?
Florida State?

Would it take the interest of a school such as Florida State to make it worth the effort to expand with just 11 schools? Or could the possibility of adding BYU as a 11 school provide the interest for TV to make it worth the expansion of an additional school.


I've been saying the Big XII should go to eleven since they dropped to ten and wanted the CCG money/benefits. The more it's known about these other conference media deals, the stronger the case becomes for the Big XII to resist the twelfth member if their ideal candidates aren't willing to join. A VERY compelling case can be made to the NCAA that adding a school they don't want to get a CCG that they need based on a size that can no longer enjoy round-robin benefits is not good for the conference on the whole.

Get the school you'll know will accept for eleven and then keep asking the ones you know will turn you down thereafter.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:06 am 
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lash wrote:
With the Big Ten planning on the possibility of a 10 game conference schedule and all these discussion of scheduling alliances by the Big 12, what would be the odds the Big 12 may expand with a 11th school only? Not sure if this was discussed in contingency planning meetings a few weeks back.

Expanding with a 11th school would provide the opportunity for balanced five home and away football games and reduce the need from 3 to 2 OOC games. It would retain round robin football and avoid splitting up the Texas and Oklahoma schools into separate divisions.

BYU?
Tulane?
UConn?
Florida State?

Would it take the interest of a school such as Florida State to make it worth the effort to expand with just 11 schools? Or could the possibility of adding BYU as a 11 school provide the interest for TV to make it worth the expansion of an additional school.


I don't think 11 teams will add enough value so I don't think that happens.

I think you can eliminate UConn and Tulane from BXII plans unless they plan to expand to 18 or 20.

I think FSU will only come with a partner so add Miami and/or Clemson to the list.

I think you can add Boise State to go with BYU.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:12 am 
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11 is the worst number for a conference unless you play all 10 other teams.
BYU and BSU seem to make the most sense for new members. The MWC harbors dreams of BYU rejoining, but I don't see it.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 3:03 pm 
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If the intent is to be 11 for a very long time and no CCG is in order, then 11 does not look preferable unless the one addition is very extraordinary, and nothing else really good is available. Of course, the B1G had that.

However, if 11 is reached with a great addition, then the conference could be in a stronger position to find a great #12 later.

Beyond the travel/distance element, Boise State has not been distinguishing in olympic-type sports. BSU's academic profile would not appeal to schools such as Texas and Kansas. Also, it must be considered that when Boise's nice fb run on the blue carpet loses its steam, what else do they have to offer other than an Idaho presence?

BYU is decent at multiple sports and is somewhat closer with a stable fan base for even rough times. It come down to whether the B12 and BYU can resolve the issues that divide them to make it happen.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:40 pm 
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Boise wouldn't add value to the Big XII. And tapping them won't create a pipeline to the west coast. If you're going to get a school from the Rockies that will get you into the west coast that isn't BYU or AFA, it's Colorado State.

Considering what CSU is spending for their new stadium, you better believe I suspect they've been talking to someone in a major conference.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 10:38 am 
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I'm not sure if many people would be watching the CSU/WVU football games


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:56 am 
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BePcr07 wrote:
I'm not sure if many people would be watching the CSU/WVU football games


Probably about the same number that watch ISU/WVU or Baylor/WVU or Kansas/WVU.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 3:09 pm 
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BePcr07 wrote:
I'm not sure if many people would be watching the CSU/WVU football games


True, but of the two, I don't see West Virginia as the safe, long-term bet.

In this economy especially, trying to sell an eight or nine-digit athletic facility is going to expect certain assurances, and at a public institution, no less, this has got to be going somewhere. It's not like the school is going to make incredible money playing in a conference like the Mountain West. True, the stadium they have now is a dump...and I know Colorado real estate isn't the cheapest, per se, but this is in the $250m zone? Really?

They're going somewhere for that much money...


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 5:22 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
BePcr07 wrote:
I'm not sure if many people would be watching the CSU/WVU football games


True, but of the two, I don't see West Virginia as the safe, long-term bet.

In this economy especially, trying to sell an eight or nine-digit athletic facility is going to expect certain assurances, and at a public institution, no less, this has got to be going somewhere. It's not like the school is going to make incredible money playing in a conference like the Mountain West. True, the stadium they have now is a dump...and I know Colorado real estate isn't the cheapest, per se, but this is in the $250m zone? Really?

They're going somewhere for that much money...


My guess is that CSU's goal is the Pac 12. The Pac likes schools with big research budgets. In 2012, CSU had $340 million in grants while CU-Boulder had $380 million in research grants. Although, the University of Colorado system had $815 million total for all four schools.

CU would probably fight having CSU in the Pac, but I think CSU would be very happy to go to the north division which might alleviate some of CU's opposition.

I am not saying this will happen. It is just my opinion of what CSU's goal is. They certainly wouldn't turn up their noses at an invitation from the Big XII, either.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 9:49 pm 
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I don't disagree that Colorado St could end up in the XII eventually. I believe most people are aware that West Virginia's stay in the XII will be limited to some degree. I have heard from multiple sources that the Pac-12 would like to have 2 teams per state (except California - 2 NorCal and 2 SoCal). If that's the case, Colorado St would definitely find their way to that conference if they ever decide to expand to 14 or 16. On that note, would they take Utah St?


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