I think the football dynamic might be at play - if America East is wounded badly, Maine and New Hampshire, who play football in the CAA, will be upset. The other part of it is that America East isn't greatly outnumbered anymore on the football field:
America East - Albany, Stony Brook, UNH, Maine
CAA - Delaware, Towson, William & Mary, James Madison
Big East - Villanova
Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island, Richmond
Lose JMU and/or Delaware to FBS and CAA football becomes America East football.
The football-playing schools are actually the minority of the CAA next year now that College of Charleston is on board. Why would Charleston want to create a conference like the one they're leaving?
The CAA was down to 6 before when ECU, Richmond etc all bailed and they came back as 12. CAA has a tv AEC, SoCon, Big South, MAAC don't that should make the CAA the league dog in this group. The only conf. that should worry about dying are WAC, Summit, A-Sun b/c they are at the bottom of the totem pole.