fighting muskie wrote:
The current Big 12 is such an oddity--it can't grow but at the same time no one can leave due to the intense political pressures to keep the "little sisters" with their higher revenue generating siblings. Furthermore, the Big Ten and SEC don't have the room to accommodate the little sisters in order to land a big fish. The PAC 12 has room to admit 4 schools but they have made it clear that the deal is Texas, Oklahoma, Tech, and Okie St and no one is going to get special treatment when it comes to Tier 3 rights.
This league holds together as long as Texas is able to make money that is on par with what members of the big money conferences are getting but if their television partners get tired of overpaying for Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU games then the dominoes start to fall. Texas has the benefit of being able to play 3 different conferences against each other should they decide to move.
What do you all think: if Texas were picking between the big ten, SEC, and PAC 12 who do they chose, what is the deal, and who else is part of the move?
If Texas goes then the conference is pretty much done.
Texas: I don't think the SEC would ever want Texas. The SEC is already in the state and don't want to deal with the perceived arrogance of Texas and the LHN. The B1G has said they'd like to have Texas, but I don't think either the B1G or Texas would want Texas to be on an island away from the rest of the conference. Building a bridge would suffice, but the B1G would admit non-AAU members along the way and have at least 17+ members. The PAC would be the only option for conferences for Texas as long as theirs a package deal (see island concept with B1G). Also, Texas has the ability to go Independent. For this project, I'm assuming Texas joins a conference and that conference is the PAC. Now who goes where...
PAC add: Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St (stay at 16)
BIG add: Kansas, Kansas St (stay at 16)
ACC add: West Virginia (add 1 more for 16 - Cincinnati or Connecticut)
SEC add: none (could add 2 for 16, but not necessary - would probably only pick up ACC defects if ACC imploded which isn't in this scenario)
AAC add: TCU, Baylor, Iowa St (wouldn't add 1 more for even number because with either Cincinnati or Connecticut leaving for the ACC, the AAC needs to add an odd number)
Next conference to implode (assuming the XII does) would be the ACC. In that scenario...
SEC add: Virginia Tech, North Carolina St (stay at 16)
B1G add: Virginia, North Carolina (stay at 18)
With ACC/AAC leftovers:
SEC add: Louisville, West Virginia
MWC add: Houston, SMU, TCU, Baylor (stays at 16)
PAC add (greedy for 18): New Mexico, UNLV (stays at 18)
MWC (dropped to 14, wants 18): Tulsa, Tulane, Iowa St, Memphis
ACC (new version) - 16 members: Navy, Temple, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida, Miami FL, Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida St; wants 18: adds Southern Miss, Marshall
All because of Texas' decision...