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PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:41 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
tkalmus wrote:
To be fair,

Navy/BYU don't count in the "lock them out of big time games" since neither are in an AQ conference.

Purdue and Michigan State supposedly (by most accounts) were willing to sell the Irish game for an annual PAC12 matchup.

Texas (who first off isn't in the B1G or PAC) only has a home and home scheduled with the Irish in 2015/16 and 2 neutral site matchups in 2019(in Texas but TBD DFW/Hou/SA)/2020 (Chicago) and nothing more as of yet (though much has been rumored) but they've only ever played 10 times before these matchups (mostly through bowls) so they also shouldn't be in this conversation...

The enablers are clearly the ACC and USC/Stanford.

For those who want the Irish to join a conference, the other major conferences need to cut the Irish out of the post season conversation and make them communicate through the ACC (thus giving the ACC more control over the Irish and taking away their influence at these meetings).

Then we need to see the PAC12 go to 16, and the ACC to get raided for at least UNC possibly by the SEC meaning they'd be at 16, and with everyone at 16 obviously the B1G will also be expanding so they just need to grab a 15th members (KU/UVA) and offer ND its final chance to join the conference because when all this happens (around 2025 or so) the GOR would have to be up and so will the new bowl/post season agreements. If ND thinks they may be finally getting cut out of the process, then clearly they would have to end their independent streak and join up with either the B1G or the ACC once and for all. But they'll hold onto it until then so I wouldn't expect any changes for at least the next 10 years.


I don't think BYU and Navy's place is overstated in the big picture, though. Both could be major conference members if they wanted to (Navy chooses not to, having avoided the Big East for decades, and BYU runs on a "PAC or bust" philosophy). But, more relevant to Notre Dame: being independents, it resolves scheduling conflicts where they exist when running up against more restrictive conference scheduling (ie: why Notre Dame's Big Ten games are always in the first few weeks of the season, unlike USC, Stanford, Pitt, or BC). Army's just as much of an enabler.

I added Texas because they wanted what Notre Dame got from the ACC, and may still currently desire it. A school like Texas trying to copy the model of Notre Dame is as destructive toward the cause of "reigning in the Irish" as the ACC and the two PAC schools because of the "stroke" Texas has as a national program and within the Big XII (and the Big XII is now a lot more flexible with non-conference scheduling at ten than it was when twelve).

The scheduling issues for indepdents, Notre Dame included, are weeks 6-11, deeper in the conference season. Given a willing crew of various independents, the ACC, and the PAC duo, the Irish really have no reason to budge. With the flexibilities of the Big XII, including their campaign for Notre Dame in an associate membership agreement, I think they, too, can feed into what the Irish desire.

And what about the bowls? Any bowl will probably find a way to fit the Irish in. They're covered in the ACC now, and most believe some of those games the Irish will never see even if 6-6. They just get all the breaks...


Come on man, BYU won't get in the PAC, and even if they get in the Big 12 they won't go any further than that. And Navy did join the Big East minus the AQ (now AAC) but has only a tiny outside chance to join the ACC (which ironically depends on NDfb status).

But no matter how you slice it, these schools will continue to play ND because they'll never make it into the next alignment of the Big 4, because the Big 4/5 can't do anything to BYU (they're already cut out of the playoffs/BCS bowls) nor Navy (now in the AAC and unlikely to ever make the playoff/BCS bowls) to stop it...so there is no point to bring them up.

And as far a Texas goes (obvious bias aside)...

How does Texas want "what Notre Dame got from the ACC and may still currently desire it?"

I'd love to hear that factoid. Because other than rampant speculation on message boards there has been no indication that any of it is true. Texas signed a GOR, when it was clearly in a position of power to stay in the Big 12 w/o it and offered to take equal money, meaning at least 10mil/yr less money (could have been much more after adjusting for losing the other 4 members, Texas/OU's value obviously increased w/i the conference), while the just about every other school in the conference except OU got a pay raise some worth more than 15 million a year and not including TCU/WVU's huge windfall.

As much as fans like to talk a big game after the fact, w/o Texas in the mix, OU might have had enough need to join A&M in the SEC leaving the remaining school scrambling to join the Big East (ironically with TCU/WVU). I'm not saying that Texas single handily decided saved the Big 12, but they were clearly one of the top reasons.

But even still, the "stroke" Texas has as a national program along with the LHN, would clearly allow UT to go independent however the haven't set themselves up to be successful as one for multiple reasons.

A: they do not have enough rivalry games to fill their schedule each year. ND has/had Michigan, Mich St, Purdue, USC, Stanford, Navy, BYU, BC, Pitt, Army, Northwestern, Miami, and GA Tech; most of which they've played 30+ times. While Texas has, other than OU prior to the formation of the Big 12, has only really played Tulane (19 times) and LSU (17 times). While I'm sure they'd keep OU on the schedule, and re-add A&M on Thanksgiving, LSU and Arkansas don't want to play (LSU turned down multi attempts to schedule a series, and Arkansas has pushed a game that was originally scheduled in 2005, three times from 2008 and again from 2014 all the way until 2021 due to "strength of schedule" concerns and the game is supposed to be played in Arkansas for Pete's sake) and depending on the fall out Tech, Baylor, and TCU may not either. So other than ND, BYU, Army (last 3 indys) OU, and A&M they'd have to fill 7 games every year, of which at least 3 would need to be in the middle of the season which is tough to do.

B: they don't have anywhere to park their non-fb sports, the ACC is too far, and the B1G/PAC/SEC are too powerhouse to cave to that arrangement. ND has the ACC, and if they ever try to force ND into anything they could always call up the Big East (who would be a fool not to take them). Texas basketball and baseball need a good home, they aren't just throw away sports as many seem to believe, and the MWC/ACC don't quite cut the mustard.

C: while Texas could make more money own as an indy, I doubt it would be much more as ESPN has in the LHN contract that they get right of first refusal and a look-in negotiation to roll everything into a single deal, and I highly doubt that they would pay Texas much more than the near 40 million they make off of their current deal (23 mil/yr from the Big 12 + 15 mil/yr from the LHN) and if Texas declines I assume (as it has yet to make a profit for ESPN, although its great for UT) they would cancel the LHN if UT didn't hand over their tier 1/2 right for a reasonable price.



O and BTW, for the most part only schedules conference games after all the OOC games with the exception of what appears to a be single early conference matchup on week 3 each year (TCU/Tech 2013 and some combo of KSU/TCU/Tech/WVU in 2014) and I'm not sure how playing 9 conference games is more "flexible" just because its a ten member league, if anything a 12 member league with 8 games seems like the most flexible.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:57 am 
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The argument for conference round-robin play is that all members play each other each season, and the conference champion is really a true one. OK, fair enough.

On the flip side, it is not so bad to "mix it up" some, having more diversity over several years. Some rotation can counter some stagnation. It helps when scheduling results may look too predictable.

And if the conference really has great intensity or seeks it, that CCG can be a real plus for featuring the conference, and hopefully show lucrative results.

I believe the status quo in the B12 is a reflection of what the conference has been through in recent times; and it defines their holding pattern, GoR included.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:04 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
The argument for conference round-robin play is that all members play each other each season, and the conference champion is really a true one. OK, fair enough.

On the flip side, it is not so bad to "mix it up" some, having more diversity over several years. Some rotation can counter some stagnation. It helps when scheduling results may look too predictable.

And if the conference really has great intensity or seeks it, that CCG can be a real plus for featuring the conference, and hopefully show lucrative results.


I think it makes for bad football. The problem with the game is that so much is centered on not losing that when a good team does, the consequences are so untenably ridiculous. Plus, the whole "it's better to lose in week one than twelve" because of the twisted methodology of determining rank in this game...why should one bother to pay attention if not in the national conversation?

A lot of football is played between September and November. And there is a ton of drop-off between November and January. It's not a knock on round-robin, but until a proper playoff structure can be had in FBS, it makes "RR" outmoded.

tkalmus wrote:
But no matter how you slice it, these schools will continue to play ND because they'll never make it into the next alignment of the Big 4, because the Big 4/5 can't do anything to BYU (they're already cut out of the playoffs/BCS bowls) nor Navy (now in the AAC and unlikely to ever make the playoff/BCS bowls) to stop it...so there is no point to bring them up.


The point simply is: with there being anywhere from 8-10 games the Irish can readily have, if not more, how feasible is it to force the Irish to steer its football into a conference?

Poo-poo on the likes of Navy, BYU, Army, or any other "fodder," but the games make for one less schedule challenge, and pad the Irish from any such pressure were it to come from the likes of other conferences and programs. Where those 8-10 games ND automatically play, just remember the markets associated with that schedule.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:54 am 
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UNC emails re: UMD-ACC dispute.

Things were actually pretty dire there. Apparently, UNC *was* considering its options. Sounds like the SEC could have really almost had their shot.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:39 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
UNC emails re: UMD-ACC dispute.

Things were actually pretty dire there. Apparently, UNC *was* considering its options. Sounds like the SEC could have really almost had their shot.


Good stuff, Cutter. I wonder if ALL the Emails got released.

A tidbit that was picked up, was that FSU & Virginia (and said others) had to be convinced on the merits of signing a GoR. I expect they were told the ACC prospects to develop a lucrative ACC channel were good. Somebody did a nice sales job on a matter that was little more than theory at the time.

Apparently Cincinnati was trying hard to get into the ACC right after Maryland's announcement. Obviously, Louisville had the inside track already.

There was no mention of UConn, whom many anticipated would be Maryland's replacement. I believe the ACC still held some grudge about UConn stemming from the BE lawsuits during 2003; and BC certainly was pushing not to include UConn. However, Louisville had been looking strong in both fb & bb, reached into a new area, and bridged some in the direction of Notre Dame. Also, Louisville did not fear using their politicians in the effort as was displayed at the time the B12 added WVU. That's a whole new avenue beyond Emails.

Had UVA committed to jump to the B1G; agree, the SEC had a strong shot at UNC. It could have come down to one, maybe two, schools leaving, beyond Maryland, that would have led to a radically changed ACC, and further expanded the SEC and the B1G beyond 14 each.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:38 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
A tidbit that was picked up, was that FSU & Virginia (and said others) had to be convinced on the merits of signing a GoR. I expect they were told the ACC prospects to develop a lucrative ACC channel were good. Somebody did a nice sales job on a matter that was little more than theory at the time.


This was FSU's slant (crap, it's now a pay-to-view article in their archive). An abridged version with other subjects is here. But, to paraphrase: Barron was pro-ACC from the start, and wasn't likely to budge. He allowed Swofford to come in and meet with detractors, including Haggard and other boosters. Haggard said he was sold once shown the money from a potential network.

Quote:
However, Louisville had been looking strong in both fb & bb, reached into a new area, and bridged some in the direction of Notre Dame. Also, Louisville did not fear using their politicians in the effort as was displayed at the time the B12 added WVU. That's a whole new avenue beyond Emails.


My guess is: free Papa John's pizza for life. That's how Louisville got their spot. :P

Yeah, the way the article reads, the author thinks UL had it in the bag based on the speed of the decision. UC couldn't do anything, and UConn was pretty much out. I still think it was a mistake for the ACC to come out of all of this with Pittsburgh, Notre Dame's afterthoughts, and Louisville, while seeing Maryland walk and turning down WVU, UConn, and Johns Hopkins lacrosse.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:52 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
UNC emails re: UMD-ACC dispute.

Things were actually pretty dire there. Apparently, UNC *was* considering its options. Sounds like the SEC could have really almost had their shot.

Quote:
Sports Illustrated posted a story on its website that detailed how much more money Maryland would make in the Big Ten. The first paragraph read: “The University of Maryland stands to make nearly $100 million more in conference revenue by 2020 with its switch from the ACC to the Big Ten. …”

Is the money from the Big Ten Network that much greater than the ACC TV money?”

Cunningham’s response: “Yes. Likely $20 (million)/yr by 2017.”

So it seems the ACC GoR bought UNC another 12 years to decide whether it wanted to join the B1G or join the SEC . . . at a cost of more that $200 million in forgone revenue. Moreover, signing the GoR also cost schools such as UVA and GT $200 million each, in order to give UNC that 12 years, but these schools already know the B1G wants them and that they won't be joining the SEC (GT has been there/done that, and UGA already has the state sewn up for the SEC).

This could get ugly . . . really ugly. If all goes according to plan, by about 2020 UMD will be flush with cash, will have added back the sports they recently dropped, will be funding their sports at a level UVA will not be able to match, and may have paid off debt and improved facilities. UVA will be looking across the border in envy, being constantly reminded that signing the GoR was a huge mistake. I'm confident that no one will ever be able to convince them to sign another ACC GoR. Not many schools can afford to forgo $20 million per year.

When the GoR expires in 2027, all ACC schools with an opportunity to join either the B1G or the SEC will leave. (Until we know otherwise, I'm assuming SEC media revenue will track close to B1G levels.)


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:28 pm 
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The ACC is alive because FSU has the most fragile ego of any athletic program in the country. The money was there to move the school out of the ACC, but Barron was too much of a softie for them, and probably felt like FSU deserved to be treated the way Swofford did by coming in and kissing butt to critical trustees and boosters.

Are they going to be pissed when they see how much the Big Ten and SEC start marking once renegotiated. And that's at them being at 14. B1G's going to go to 16 eventually...the gap between UMD and the ACC is going to be a lot more than $20m.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:09 pm 
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Interesting emails...

So correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like...

The UNC/Duke to the SEC rumors, while not confirmed seem more likely to be true as UNC doesn't look like they were considering the Big Ten.

Likewise, the fact that they needed to convince UVA to sign the GOR means that they are likely next in line for the Big Ten and not the SEC.

The fact that Cinncinati was mentioned was interesting though I don't think that means they are above UConn for the next expansion.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:51 pm 
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The B1G and the SEC are way ahead of the curve on all this compared to the ACC. The SEC network will be airing by August, 2014. Even if the ACC gets their own network running, shall it even approach the revenue value of the B1G and what the SEC is pursuing? The sells job the ACC folks pointed at, was the populated, eastern, mid-Atlantic, and southern markets where they are footprinted. Developing the necessary passion to go with it, is a real factor. Depending on where a school is located, real security lies being in the B1G, SEC, or PAC12. The GoR buys time, but is the ACC going to be in the same spot whenever it gets close to expiring? Bishin Cutter, Dennis, etc., brought up this point in above posts.

I think it was tute79 (pardon me if I am incorrect) on another thread that referred to a 72 member super-division, that could contain 4 conferences of approximately 18 members each. 64 would only account for exisiting members of the power-five minus ND. That's not enough unless some get kicked to aside for the necessary adjustments.

The B12 cannot feed every other power conference the way all of them would seek it. Maybe 4 or 5 of the current B12 schools would have appeal for another power conference. As well, some ACC schools would readily appeal for elsewhere, while others shall not.

Here's the thought.
*The ACC and the B12 both have extractions. They both take on additions of schools poised to be included with the power conferences.

*The B1G gets to 16, then 18. OK, that could be Kansas, UVA, GT, ND (all-sports), whomever.

*The SEC gets to 16, maybe then 18. They get into NC with UNC/Duke, maybe an in-footprint school such as FSU; maybe another or two from the current B12. Just doing concept here, not real specifics as to schools.

*The PAC12 gets to 16/18. They could take 2 to 4 from the current B12. Maybe they add one or two MWC schools that would geographically connect the new configuration, and be viewed worthy for the purpose.

*Those left in the B12 and the ACC merge as one conference, with two divisions---an Atlantic Coast Division, and a Middle-America-type division. WVU could move to the Atlantic Coast division. BYU and a few others from the MWC could be picked-up for the more west division.
The Atlantic Coast division could incorporate UCONN, Cincy, and whomever else would be deemed worthy. The challenge would be to have two nine member divisions that are balanced per departures and additions.

At 65 that includes ND, the new super-division could only add 7 new schools for inclusion to reach a limit of 72. Adding BYU, UCONN, Cincy, would only leave room for 4 more, and in the west may be where the need would be greatest.

The real problem with a set model in numbers shall be the lack of flexibility occuring. Colleges/univerisites can change, some grow quickly, others diminish with more constrained funding. There will never be a clear-cut best 72 (maybe a best 50 or so some years). There's no room for exceptions.

I believe some among the power conferences and networks have discussed something similar to the general outline. They would have to create the super-division first, then find a way to get the GoRs' in the B12 and the ACC relaxed to allow movement. That's the real challenge from within the structure.


Last edited by sec03 on Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:37 pm 
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I don't see value in the content the ACC presently has were it to even start a network, other than basketball, I mean. The big corridor gap between DC and significantly north of NYC is a legitimate issue. The ACC can't expect it will have a presence in the corridor with just Syracuse, Pitt, BC, and some Notre Dame games. The lack of AQ in lacrosse is bad, and so is having this good baseball collection without ANY interest north of Virginia due to the pro's. Hoops is the only thing it has, and even there, it's a big risk for the ACC to have this conference without schools directly represented in the Beltway, Philly, and NYC metro. The Garden isn't going to flood over for Syracuse-Pitt. UVA won't be able to sell out in DC, either. There's no reason it ever should.

The thing that makes the ACC strong are the NC and VA schools, and even GT. That UVA needed some work to come to agreement of the GoR is a pretty big concern. Not "oh, they're next after Maryland" kind of big, but "maybe they aren't so tight in the coastal states" big.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:50 am 
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I'm wondering if some 72 (or pick your own number) of schools break off into a super-division,
if they get together and run their entire operation as a single entity like the NFL.

Yeah, there will be geographical conferences / divisions, but no need for separate SEC / B1G / BXII / PAC / ACC offices.

It might make sense for all these schools to come together under a single management structure, share the wealth, and shift teams (like WVU) around a bit as makes sense.

The super-division office could eventually displace the NCAA in terms of sanctiining their operations.


Thoughts ?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:00 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
I'm wondering if some 72 (or pick your own number) of schools break off into a super-division,
if they get together and run their entire operation as a single entity like the NFL.

Yeah, there will be geographical conferences / divisions, but no need for separate SEC / B1G / BXII / PAC / ACC offices.

It might make sense for all these schools to come together under a single management structure, share the wealth, and shift teams (like WVU) around a bit as makes sense.

The super-division office could eventually displace the NCAA in terms of sanctiining their operations.


Thoughts ?

We've discussed this and while it seems plausable, once you shift WVU to the ACC and therefor Lville to the SEC or ND to the Big Ten and A&M/Mizzou/Nebraska back to the Big 12 you'll see lots of belly aching.

The only way this works is if it occurs semi-naturally and you see the Big 12 vitually die off (it will still be around with AAC Western replacements) and the 4 remaining "Major" conferences decide to give this a go.

Until then, no one will consent to being moved around.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:44 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
tute79 wrote:
I'm wondering if some 72 (or pick your own number) of schools break off into a super-division,
if they get together and run their entire operation as a single entity like the NFL.

Yeah, there will be geographical conferences / divisions, but no need for separate SEC / B1G / BXII / PAC / ACC offices.

It might make sense for all these schools to come together under a single management structure, share the wealth, and shift teams (like WVU) around a bit as makes sense.

The super-division office could eventually displace the NCAA in terms of sanctiining their operations.


Thoughts ?

We've discussed this and while it seems plausable, once you shift WVU to the ACC and therefor Lville to the SEC or ND to the Big Ten and A&M/Mizzou/Nebraska back to the Big 12 you'll see lots of belly aching.

The only way this works is if it occurs semi-naturally and you see the Big 12 vitually die off (it will still be around with AAC Western replacements) and the 4 remaining "Major" conferences decide to give this a go.

Until then, no one will consent to being moved around.


How about the same thing, but with Colorado back to the Big 12 and BYU replacing the Buffs spot in the Pac-12?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 4:04 pm 
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tute--I think an NFL-like single entity organization is the best option for the overall health of major college football. I don't think its healthy for the SEC and Big Ten to have the monetary advantages they do and the ability to be a looming threat to weaker conferences like the ACC and Big 12. I'm a fan of the major conferences dividing up the Big 12 and shifting some programs with some gravitas to the ACC and going forward as one organization with 4 conferences. I'm also a fan of playoffs occurring with each division with the 4 winners advancing to a national playoff.


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