The move gives the SEC exactly what it needs: a new region with new markets to help improve it’s already massive television package. With Texas A&M joining and the SEC already a dominant force in it’s current footprint, there were few schools that could give the SEC some of the financial benefits they wanted…despite Missouri being just a so-so sports product compared to some more powerful programs like say, Florida St. In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a strong toehold in Big 12 country to go with Texas A&M with the SEC now expanding as far west as the market of Kansas City.

But the real benefit might be in regards to the creeping up on the Big Ten.

In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a school right in the Big Ten backyard…and sharing what had been very much a Big Ten city in St. Louis, thanks to all the nearby Illinois graduates as well as all the Big Ten alumni living in St. Louis.

The SEC can now go forward with an SEC Network, knowing that they will have instant success in new markets like Houston, Kansas City and St. Louis.

Missouri is expected to join the SEC next season.

But that might be a problem for the Big 12.

The Big 12 added West Virginia to replace Missouri. But due to a 27 month waiting period by the Big East, WVU will not be expected to join the Big 12 next season. A lawsuit by WVU vs. the Big East was greeted with a loawsuit by the Big East vs. WVU. So the Big 12 will likely be forced to participate at 9 members next season.

* But now, various outlets including Pete Thamel of the New York Times are reporting that Louisville has gotten some political pressure placed on the Big 12 to invite Louisville instead of WVU. Thamel’s sources are saying it’s now 50/50 between Louisville and WVU for the post-Missouri #10 spot. Both schools need to hope now that the Big 12 opts for 12 schools, inviting both of them along with a 12th like BYU.

* While all eyes are on the Big 12 and Big East, the WAC put out some interesting news as well, saying they plan to add 2 more schools by the the 2013-2014 season.

Much of what the WAC does will depend on how things play out with other conferences. But it seems safe to say that no CUSA, WAC or Sunbelt schools will be included.

That leaves FCS upgrades as the only options.

Lamar likely tops the list since they have made the most strides to join over the past year. The other schools the WAC was interested in have showed less interest. Montana remains at the top of the wishlist, but has so far declined the upgrade invitation. Montana St. is a school that many assume would need to upgrade as well for Montana to make a move. Portland St., Sacramento St., Cal – Poly, and UC-Davis are the other schools the WAC had shown some level of interest in from the west. In Texas, in addition to Lamar, Sam Houston St. has been on the radar.

WVU will replace Missouri who is expected to leave for the SEC. WVU will pay a $5 exit fee since the $10 fee hike only kicks in once Air Force or Navy join the Big East…and neither has done so.

The plan is for WVU to join next year, the same time Missouri is expected to leave. If somehow Missouri opted to remain (which is not going to happen), the Big 12 would likely bring in Louisville to expand to 12. The Big 12 is still however, uncertain if they plan to remain at 10 with WVU or expand to 12 and qualify for a championship game.

If the Big 12 lost Missouri and expanded to 12, Louisville would be the #11 school added after WVU. The issue at hand is finding a #12 option. BYU remains a candidate, however there have been some issues with their inclusion. There is also the chance that if the Big East continues to lose members, that Notre Dame might flee for the Big 12 as well, since the conference has shown some willingness to invite Notre Dame as a non-football member. Such a move would also permit BYU to remain in the WCC for non-football sports and join as a football only member.

As for TCU, a Big 12 invitation would be a dream cone true. Left out of the Big 12 when the Big 8 and SWC merged two decades ago, TCU has had more movement than any school in Division 1:

Southwest Conference > WAC > CUSA > MWC > agreed to move to Big East (BCS conference) > Big 12 (as they never participated in the Big East, the school would be free to move without the 27 month waiting period that current Big East members must face).

Many had thought the Big 12 would avoid adding another Texas school, due to the ill-will perceived coming out of University of Texas, as well as the Texas A&M departure.

However, TCU does bring a more successful football program than Texas A&M at this time, a program better than most of the available candidates.

While many feel that adding TCU does little for adding new TV markets to the conference, since Texas dominates most of the cities in the state, there is another factor to consider: alumni. With TCU in the Big 12, it gives all the alumni from Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas and Kansas St. that live in Dallas (one of the cities with the most Big 12 school alumni) more opportunities to support Big 12 athletics.

Another important note is that if TCU joins for #10, it is expected that the Big 12 will remain at 10. This would exclude schools like BYU, Louisville and WVU. However, with Missouri remaining, the Big 12 would be wise to consider expansion to 12 with Louisville and WVU, as Missouri would be a natural bridge to both states. An eastern expansion would give the conference enough members for a championship game, but also increase the conferences exposure in the eastern markets, with some residual penetration into the now weakened northeast media markets now split between the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (WVU, Uconn, Rutgers).

As for the Big East, despite any spin, the loss of TCU would be a serious blow. TCU was added as a means to boost the football performance. For the majority of the BCS bids that the Big East has had, the Big East had the lowest BCS ranking of the AQ bids. At times, the Big East BCS representative reanked in the 25-32 spot and many question why the Big East had an AQ while schools like TCU, Boise St., Utah and others were at times left out of the BCS despite a top 10 ranking.

The Big East would then be down to 6 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. The conference planned to regroup from 7 with the addition of 2-3 schools. Now they will be looking to add 3-4. The candidate pool is far from attractive in regards to a BCS bid. Air Force will likely pass at this point, as would Navy for football only…unless the Big East comes up with a solid plan and all remaining schools remain. Uconn has it’s eyes set on the ACC, hoping the conference can get Notre Dame to join and Uconn for #16. Uconn and Rutgers remain options for the ACC should they expand to 16.

If the big 12 stops at 10, it means that the Big East 6 will likely remain and there is enough political cache to retain the BCS bid. But if Louisville and WVU were to leave (Big 12/SEC), that might change. All of a sudden, schools like SMU, Houston, Memphis, ECU, Temple, Villanova, UMass, etc aren’t going to be enough to add to football prestige.

On paper, it would seem like an easy decision. The SEC IS college football, the best in the nation. The conference is stable with large per-school revenue payouts. For the SEC, Missouri offers even more penetration into Big 12 country (in addition to Texas A&M) and into Kansas City and helps the SEC make it’s way into Big Ten territory via the statewide appeal of the program and into St. Louis. These markets would help the overall viewership of the SEC and be a huge boost to a potential SEC Network.

For Missouri in the Big 12, the benefits are less tangible. It would be less money. It would mean remaining in a conference that two years in a row has nearly fallen apart. And if the Big 12 fell apart and Missouri passed on the SEC, it is doubtful that opportunity would present itself again, nor a coveted Big Ten invitation. What Missouri would get would be to maintain rivalries with nearby Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., and the connection to Oklahoma and Texas.

Yet, based on comments this weekend, it appears Missouri is leaning towards remaining in the Big 12.

So within a few hours, we should know the fate of a number of conferences.

Various reports claim that if Missouri remains in the Big 12, that the Big 12 might be adding BYU, TCU and Louisville.

The result would be the Big East down to 5 members: WVU, Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati and USF. So even as the Big East has lined up talks with UCF, SMU, Air Force for all-sports, Temple for either football-only or all-sports, and Navy for football-only, the Big East would need to look at adding all of these schools or others currently not on the list (such as ECU, Memphis, Houston).

If spurned by Missouri, the SEC might then very likely invite WVU to be the #14 school, another blow to the Big East.

And if Missouri were to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, there remains a strong chance that the Big 12 could invite BYU, TCU, Louisville and WVU. This would result in the Big East being down to Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati and USF. And at this point, one has to wonder if the Big East would even both with expansion since it would require the conference to invite 5-6 schools to get back to 9 or reach the number 10 they had set out for late in 2010.

If you’re the Big East basketball schools, how thrilled would you be having to add SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple, Air Force for all-sports and Navy or ECU for football-only? It would seem that if the Big East were down to 4 members, you’ll start hearing talks of UCF and perhaps even Cincinnati joining CUSA for all-sports and Uconn and Rutgers for football-only. Or course at this point, CUSA might have more cache than the Big East and require all-sports membership. Uconn and Rutgers would then be forced with the choice: join CUSA for all-sports or approach the MAC or Sunbelt for football-only…or participate as independents.

Which brings us to Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has passed on full membership as the Big East has served their needs for non-football sports while allowing them to preserve independence in football.

But if the Big East falls apart, all the large football schools, is Notre Dame going to remain with the 7 small private/catholic schools? Likely not.

So if the Big 12 opts to take 3 Big East schools, Notre Dame might be forced to make the all-sports move to the ACC…and option they would likely prefer over the Big Ten due to northeast market exposure (Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh) as well as southern recruiting benefits of ACC membership.

And it is believed that once the ACC has a final decision from Notre Dame, that Uconn would be in the mix. So if Notre Dame joins for #15, Uconn would be brought in for #16. And if Notre Dame officially passes on the ACC, the Uconn and Rutgers would likely be brought in for the 15 and 16 spots.

The result again: Big East destruction.

In the perfect world, Missouri will announce they are remaining in the Big 12 and that the Big 12 opts to remain at 9. And if they were to expand, adding now independent BYU for #10 would keep the conference shifts minimal. But even this would require the SEC to pass on a #14 school and for the Big East current 7 football schools to remain together.

So here’s where we stand:

Big 12 Stability:

* Yes, the Big 12 seems to be doing what they did just last year…pledge unity with each other, with Texas and Oklahoma being the primary torch carriers for the conference. This year, the recommended changes weren’t to help the top ranking members like last years decisions were. This time around, unity was defined as spreading the wealth. So what is on the table is equal revenue sharing for Tier 1 and Tier 2 television rights. But the kicker…

* The 6 year conference grants rights: on the table is where all Big 12 members would forfeit their TV rights to the Big 12 for a 6 year period…and the current TV deal runs for 5 years. So if a school left the Big 12, they would not even have their own TV rights for that year. The result would be a revenue loss greater than a simple “exit fee” would be. But…

* Missouri seems to be holding things up. There are reports from the SEC that they are not expecting to expand beyond 14. But it seems to be a semantics game at this point. We know the SEC has some level of interest in Missouri. We know this because all the Big 12 members, including their acting commissioner, have made reference to Missouri and the school waiting to decide if they will remain in the Big 12. As we know they are not considering an offer from another conference, it would seem that Missouri is still considering the SEC.

* The SEC semantics game is likely legal posturing. They have made it clear that a school must reach out the the SEC and apply to the SEC in order to ever be considered. Legally, the SEC is positioning themselves so that IF they added Missouri, it would be Missouri reaching out to them.

* Missouri will have a meeting on Tuesday to discuss their conference situation. If they opt to pursue the SEC, they would follow the same path as Texas A&M in negotiations. If they opt to remain in the Big 12, it is a 6 year commitment. Missouri would need to join the other Big 12 members and everyone sign the 6 year grants waiver. Result would mean Missouri would be off the table for the SEC or any other conference (Big Ten) for 6 years.

* If Missouri does have the SEC as an option, it would be tough to pass on after the past 2 years in the Big 12. Especially since passing means that if the SEC finds 13 schools to be too difficult and needs a 14th, they would be left out of that mix in favor of a school like WVU or if the SEC could obtain an ACC school.

* The Big 12 has replaced expansion committee chair, Missouri chancellor Deaton, with Kansas St. president Kirk Shultz. The assumption is the potential conflict of interest if Missouri is considering the SEC. Other sources claim Shultz has been the chair all along.

* Big 12 Commissioner Chuck Neinas says he expects Missouri to remain in the Big 12.

Big 12 Expansion:

* The Big 12 expansion plans have been all over the map. Journalists who regularly have excellent sources and information have conflicting reports on a day to day basis.

* At first, it appeared that the Big 12 would be “aggressive” and likely expand to 12.

* Then, due to feedback from the TV partners, it appeared 10 would be the number with BYU or TCU topping the list. The rationale was that the networks would value either school as much as Texas A&M, so the annual revenue would remain the same.

* It appeared that the lesser Big 12 programs favored expansion to 12 because it would promote security. That way, if 4 or 5 schools left in the future, the Big 12 would have 7-8 members and a controlling stake in their future. At even 7 schools, the Big 12 would be in a position to cherry pick schools from lower conferences. This time around, it appeared only 4-5 schools would have remained, removing much of the leverage and forcing the Big 12 “left overs” to do what other conferences, like the Big East, wanted.

* Texas was less interested in expanding beyond 10 due to potential revenue split by 12 schools and the chance it would lower the annual payouts per school…and loss of control by having 12 schools instead of just 9 others.

* Expansion in Texas was not desired by Texas. Other schools outside Texas like Kansas opposed expanding in Texas as well.

* As of today, it appears that the Big 12 is still undecided on 10 or 12 members.

* BYU still appears to top the list. The school would need to work their own ESPN/BYUtv situations into the Big 12 TV partnerships. They would also need to move their sports from the WCC to the Big 12.

* Reports yesterday claim that the Big 12, due to recommendations from their commissioner, are less hesitant on adding a Texas school (TCU). It is unknown if this decrease in reluctance is for TCU as the #10 member and sole expansion school…or if it is in the event that the Big 12 opted to expand eastward to get to 12 with TCU, Louisville, and WVU.

* If the Big 12 expands to 12, there seem to be a few paths they will consider:
A) Adding BYU, Louisville and WVU
B) Adding BYU, Louisville and TCU
C) Adding BYU, Boise St. and Louisville
D) If BYU passes, just Louisville
E) If BYU passes, just TCU
F) If BYU passes, add Louisville, TCU and WVU
G) If BYU passes, add Louisville, WVU and Rutgers
H) other 3 school scenarios less likely such as Boise St., Louisville and WVU

Big East & ACC Expansion:

* School presidents will meet in Washington D.C. this Sunday to discuss all options.

* Uconn has been posturing for an ACC invite. The ACC seems willing to add UConn but is waiting on Notre Dame at this point.

* Notre Dame is waiting to see what happens to the Big East before deciding on their future (ACC of Big Ten). More on that in a second.

* ACC looks like they might likely expand to 16 in the next year or two, perhaps sooner. If Notre Dame applies (due to Big East issues), Uconn will be invited for #16. If Notre Dame passes, the ACC might very well still add UConn and add Rutgers for #16.

* The  ACC took more control over the northeast markets with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Syracuse will likely play an ACC game in NY (Yankee Stadium, Meadowlands in NJ) each year too.

* ACC now has Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh in the region. The Big Ten still has the blue chip in Penn St. And the Big 12  is considering their own push with WVU and Louisville. This leaves the Big East with the lesser programs in the region (Uconn, Rutgers, WVU) for their share. So it is easy to see how the ACC expanding to 16 with Notre Dame and Uconn (or even Uconn and Rutgers) would be a final blow to the Big East. The ACC would then have the top 5 programs in the region after Penn St. and the TV revenue that the Big East expected to be for their conference would likely be shifted by ESPN to the ACC.

* WVU is still and will always be considered a candidate for the SEC #14 spot until the SEC fills that spot…even if the conference says 13 is fine. Because the media and fans will always focus on the symmetry of 14 and never embrace the idea of 13.

* The Big East is primarily looking at football-only members. Topping the list are Navy and Air Force.

* Air Force is a less likely option, contrary to reports, because by NCAA rules, Air Force could not remain in the geographically sound MWC for it’s other sports. MWC commissioner Thompson has clearly stated that if Air Force leaves for football, they leave for everything. Air Force would be forced to seek membership for non-football sports in conferences like the WCC, Big Sky or Summit. The WCC is less likely an option due to the conferences primary religious make-up. Both the Big Sky and Summit would be a drastic drop in quality.

* ECU and Temple are also attractive Big East options since both schools would accept football-only membership.

* UCF was considered a top option for #11 or #12 spots prior to Syracuse and Pitt leaving, as the football schools then held the power. The basketball schools were more willing to listen to adding a school like UCF then, as the Big East was stable. The basketball schools have less interest now in adding all-sports members when they are just a few schools lost away from dropping football sponsorship: translation, we don’t want to be stuck with all-sports schools we don’t want if you (football schools like UConn) leave.

* UCF is reportedly being blocked by USF anyways. So much for everyone supporting the good of the league.

* Houston is no longer an option, despite being one just a month ago for #11 or #12. See UCF two mentions above for the reason.

* Louisville coach Rick Pitino wants UL to remain in the Big East. He even promoted Memphis as an option for all-sports if they committed to football. He’s since gone dark on Memphis, instead feeling the Big East should add Navy, Army and Air Force to get to 10 members, then bring in Temple for all-sports for #11 and have Villanova upgrade to FBS for #12. Total would be 12 football/16 all-sports. Problem is that Army is not interest, Villanova does not want Temple, and Air Force and Navy would need stability (and Air Force a home for other sports).

Big East House of Cards:

* The Big East is in trouble. It could take just a single school leaving for everything to fall apart. For instance…

* If the Big 12 expanded with even a single Big East school (Louisville), then the Big East is down to 6 members.

* TCU will indeed consider remaining in the Mountain West if the Big East membership numbers drop further. Especially as the MWC is poised to apply for a BCS AQ with it’s current membership. TCU would secure a BCS AQ  bid for the MWC regardless of the BCS vote on the current MWC membership.

* If the Big East were down to 5 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati and USF…they are in trouble. The basketball schools do not what any all-sports members from the available pool (UCF, Houston, Memphis, ECU, etc). So to get back to even 9 schools without any all-sports schools, it would mean having to add football-only members Navy, Air Force, Army, ECU or Temple. Not all would be willing to join. And these schools do not scream “BCS AUTOBID”. This would be a conference ranked lower than the MWC and on par with CUSA. So there is a real threat of losing the BCS AQ.

* On top of that, you have other conferences still making moves:
A) ACC: if they add two schools, even Notre Dame and Uconn, then TCU stays in the MWC. Big East down to 5
B) ACC: still an option that UConn and Rutgers join, TCU stays in MWC. Big East down to 4.
C) Big 12: you have not just Louisville, but also WVU on the radar. If both left regardless of the ACC, TCU leaves and you’re down to 4 schools.
D) Big 12: a longshot, but 3 Big East schools could be in the mix, TCU leaves too and Big East is down to 3 schools.

* So there stands a chance that if a single school leaves the Big East, the house crumbles. So what happens?

* Big East could be forced to drop football sponsorship. The result would likely be CUSA adding the 4 remaining Big East schools for football only (say UConn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, USF). Those 4 schools would remain in the Big East for other sports.

* Can’t rule out a scenario in which Cincinnati and UCF joined CUSA for all-sports with Uconn and Rutgers for football-only (remaining in the northeast based Big East).

* The simple point:  Big East could be in serious trouble if the Big 12 adds even a single Big East school.

* The Big 12 has reinstated the expansion committee, which was shelved when Oklahoma first threatened to leave.

* It is understood that if the Big 12 expands to 10 with a single replacement for Texas A&M, and that #10 school is either BYU or TCU, that the revenue figures for the television contract will remain as they are now.

* BYU is considered the top choice, with TCU now working it’s way into the #2 position as backup. But BYU is reportedly less interested in the Big 12 due to stability questions…as well as being forced to move it’s non-football sports out of the WCC.

* Missouri is in no way, at this time, fully committed to the Big 12. The SEC remains an option until all the agreements are formalized and signed by all Big 12 schools. This will require regents meetings by each Big 12 school, so it will take time. Meanwhile, with the instability 2 years in a row, Missouri would be wise to take the SEC opportunity now given the stable and lucrative nature of SEC conference membership.

* In the search for a 10th school, the process is not expected to need to go beyond BYU or TCU. If BYU were offered first and rejected, TCU would accept. If TCU offered first, TCU would accept.

* The “lower” Big 12 schools are stronger in support of expansion to 12. This would bring more stability in the event of a future departure. Oklahoma and OSU are proven flight risks to the Pac-12 or SEC. Missouri to the SEC or Big Ten (should Big Ten ever opt to expand again). Texas is a risk for not only Pac-12 and potentially the Big Ten, but also as a football independent via the LHN revenue. In adding 3 schools such as TCU, BYU and Louisville, or TCU, Louisville and WVU, the Big 12 would be safe if even 4 schools left the conference.

* Texas is less interested in expanding beyond 10 schools, which is why 10 seems to be the magic number.

* It is unknown if the networks would increase the annual value of the television contracts (average payout per school) if the Big 12 were to expand to 12. But one can assume that if BYU or TCU were viewed as equal to Texas A&M, then adding both and a more northeast school like Louisville would be an option. However, loss of Texas power via more members is certainly a concern by Texas as some conscious level.

* Because there is less of a push to go to 12, some seemingly lucrative 12 school scenarios so not seem to have as much support such as: Boise St/BYU/TCU, Boise St/Air Force/TCU, TCU/BYU/Louisville, Louisville/TCU/WVU

* Assuming something strange and drastic happened and both BYU and TCU were not available, the Big 12 would look at other candidates for #10 out of the Boise St., Louisville, Houston, SMU, Air Force pool.

With last nights bevy of press conferences, we were supposed to accept on the surface that “everything is swell”. We were to walk away with the general perception that a minor roadbump had occurred in the marriage of the member schools and that the schools, one that would be forgotten 50 years from now when the Big 12 is still in existence in it’s present form.

For the past year, we’ve looked at the Big 12 as a family our of a present day Americana tragady:

* Texas the patriarch and primary breadwinner of the family.

* Oklahoma the powerful matriarch who generates her own income

* Texas A&M the oldest son who resents father Texas

* Missouri the attractive daughter who is always winking to the smart & financially set (and diversified) neighbor to the north Big Ten and the rich proper southern gentleman, the SEC.

* Oklahoma St., the son from Oklahoma’s first marriage to the Big 8, connected to mother Oklahoma regardless of the marriage between Oklahoma and Texas

* Texas Tech, the lesser son of Texas’ first marriage with the SWC, who due to promises to Texas’ forefathers, would almost certainly be tied to Texas no matter what happens in the family.

* And a bevy of unplanned children in Baylor, Iowa St. Kansas and Kansas St. who on their own offer little, unable to contribute to the family as much as the other 6 schools.

And based on the press conferences and statements out of Oklahoma and Missouri last night, we are supposed to think that this American story is one we can all relate with: a family in turmoil who overcomes all the obstacles to make things work and secure a happy future.

Just like something we’d see on on Lifetime Network.

It’s a nice story, but it’s an incorrect interpretation by us all.

The story of the Big 12 isn’t one made for Lifetime, it’s one that is more appropriate for Animal Planet.

This isn’t the story of a happy human family in turmoil, it’s the story of an angry wolfpack, with pack members fighting for dominance, challenging the status of the Alpha, and not caring what happens to the ecosystem around them in the process.

Texas is clearly the Alpha. It was Texas who held all the cards last year when the Pac-16 almost happened with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas A&M.

Texas A&M is the nearby subordinate to Texas, knowing that there is very little they could do to ever gain the level of respect as the Alpha and opting to leave the pack to get out of the Texas shadow. It does not matter that they are leaving so much history behind. Leaving is the only way to find their own identity.

Oklahoma isn’t the matriarch, they are the angry #2 in the pack. And since alone they do not have the ability to take out the alpha, Texas, to take over leadership, the only thing they can do is knock Texas down a bit in the eyes of the rest of the pack.

It is these 3 schools that laid the foundation for what has happened over the past month. Texas greed via the LHN network, inferiority complex by Texas A&M and Oklahoma contributing to the problem with threats of leaving.

And when you’re conference leadership, those 3 powerful schools, act that way…it transforms this pack of animals into the closest thing we have in our own present day American society: jealous and petty businessmen, as we saw with the proposed Baylor legal threats on the SEC/TAMU.

So now on 9/23/11, we are to believe all has been resolved and unity is not just on the horizon, but is on fact in place.

But not so fast.

One thing is for sure. No matter how you look at it, no matter the intent, there are again clear winners: Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas and Kansas St. These 4 schools had no options but to step backwards if they were left out of the Pac-16 or SEC14, as joining with Big East schools would not come close to generating the revenue of these core Big 12 schools.

As for the future of the Big 12 membership, at least in the near future, here’s what we can expect to see:

* Big 12 members are interested in expanding to 12 to secure stability in the event that any members do leave (the same flight risks of Texas, Oklahoma with OSU, and Missouri).

* Texas is less interested in expanding to 12 because it would mean splitting the Tier 1 and Tier 2 TV revenue by 12 mouths instead of 10.

* Networks have let the Big 12 know that if the conference replaces Texas A&M with either BYU or TCU, that the value of the contract will remain as is and not take a drop.

* If the Big 12 were to add 3 schools to get to 12, it is unknown if the networks would improve their revenue payouts in a manner that would create equal per-school revenue as it is now.

* If the networks are willing to give the Big 12 the same amount by replacing Texas A&M with BYU or TCU for #10, one could hypothesize that if the Big 12 added BYU, TCU and say Louisville for 12, that there could be flexibility in increasing the total value of the contract so that the per-school revenue would remain the same as it is now. Plus, this would generate the ability for a revenue rich conference championship game.

* Again, Texas seems less interested in 12 than other Big 12 members, so it is unlikely to happen unless the per-school payout to Texas were to improve (meaning status-quo is not favorable to Texas)

Timeline for Tuesday, 9/20/11 through Wednesday, 9/21/11

11AM: Multiple Big East sources said they have been told by WVU officials that WVU rejected by ACC & SEC. This news led most to believe that Missouri would be the front-runner for the SEC #14 spot.

11AM: A reminder of some Monday news that didn’t get as much press…that JMU AD Jeff Bourne said he expects JMU to upgrade to FBS within 1-2 years.

1PM: A report by @chuckolivernews seemed to imply that the SEC had interest in Louisville for the SEC #14 spot.

2pm: A report out of Kansas City claimed that the SEC had decided on Missouri for #14 and had an offer for them. This would completely contradict the SEC process, where the conference requires a school to apply to the conference before they would extend an offer.

2:30pm: Some rumors surfaces that if Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. left the Big 12, that the proposed Big East merger would happen but that BYU, Boise St., Air Force and Houston would be included as well.

3pm: T. Boone Pickens explains that the Big 12 could be saved. This was the first sign that the Pac-16 was losing steam, something we’d later see as the Pac-12 opted not to expand.

3:30pm: Uconn continues to make it’s point in wanting to join the ACC.

4pm: Texas A&M makes it clear (likely in response to Pickens comments) that TAMU is joining the SEC, regardless of what happens in the Big 12.

4:30pm: As expected, the SEC disputes claims that they invited Missouri.

5pm: Big East planned meeting detailed for the evening. Uconn was not expected to attend and Villanova asked if they could attend. Uconn president would pass on meeting, but school would have representative.

6pm: Oklahoma remaining in the Big 12 gains more traction.  Based on comments out of Oklahoma, it was clear that Oklahoma at least had a strong sense that the Pac-12 would not be willing to expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

6pm: Penn St. president goes on the record saying Big Ten, nor Big Ten schools are planning anything in regards to expansion.

6pm: Missouri announces public meeting for Thursday in Columbia, presumably to discuss the SEC, Big 12, etc.

6:10pm: As part of Oklahoma’s demands for remaining in the Big 12, they demand that commissioner Dan Beebe be fired.

7pm: Ground shaking, I know…LA Tech communicates with CUSA and Sun Belt

7pm: News of previous Big East plans comes out, includes Navy as football-only and Air Force as well joining.

8pm: It took a while, but WVU officials call the ACC and SEC rejections an “outright lie”.

8pm: Big East and Big 12 cancel any meeting between both parties under fear of legal issues. This was first step in dissolving of the entire merger concept.

8pm: Hold your hats folks, ECU formally applied to the Big East. The twitter universe is still laughing at this one with various hashtags.

8pm: The best in all covering things Pac-12, @jonwilner, reports that the the Pac-12 would have the votes for Pac-16 expansion. And he fully explains how: if Scott were to bring a formal vote on member schools, it would be only if all schools had agree to all Pac-12 demands. This was code that if Texas did not get on board with the Pac-12 TV network, there would be no vote.

8pm: Reports that the SEC had a plan that if Missouri joined with Texas A&M, that Auburn would move to the east division.

8pm: One of the best in realignment news, Pete Thamel, says Missouri is likely the only SEC #14 candidate and that the school would be in a tough spot…keep the Big 12 together after it almost fell apart 2 years in a row or preserve the schools future with a move to the SEC.

8pm: Pete Thamel also reports that no SEC divisional plans had been set, contrary to earlier reports.

8pm: with the Big East meetings occurring at this time, many in the Twitter universe recall how earlier in the day, Penn St. coach Joe Paterno referenced Rutgers as a Big Ten candidate if the conference ever did opt to expand.

9pm: More schools on the outside get some press. Wyoming tells the world what we already knew, that they are not in the position where other conferences are calling them about membership.

9pm: Mountain West confirms that they have had early discussions with Iowa St. The assumption is that the MWC was making a play for Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St. if the Big 12 imploded. TCU would likely have been brought back as well for a 14 school conference (with Baylor being left out).

9pm: Memories of what could have been…the Paterno proposed eastern football conference that would have have been comprised of the original Big East football members, likely ACC schools like GA Tech and Florida St., as well as possibly Notre Dame.

10pm: As mentioned above, the Pac-12 opted to remain at 12 members. The rationale is quite simple: the Pac-12 was open to adding Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech as the move would bring in 2 programs that would improve the football profile of the conference and improve the per-school revenue. But from the beginning, any expansion would need to involve fully equal revenue sharing. Texas was unwilling to modify it’s LHN network, so the Pac-12 passed.

10pm: With the Pac-12 off the table, Oklahoma will likely reach out to the SEC unless all it’s demands are met in the Big 12. This includes nearly full revenue sharing of the LHN and the removal of Dan Beebe. If the SEC were to include Oklahoma as #14, the state of Oklahoma might require Oklahoma St. as well. So if the SEC wanted OU, it might mean having to expand to 16. Missouri could always still be #16, but again, only if the Big 12 still implodes with an Oklahoma departure…which seems unlikely without the Pac-12 leverage.

Since Midnight: Big East schools have vowed to remain together following their meeting. ESPN reports that the conference will look at UCF, Navy, Air Force, and East Carolina. I’m not sure why Houston is not on ESPN’s list when Houston was high on the Big East radar for the #10 spot just weeks ago. Note that the same ESPN writer here claims ECU has the Raleigh market, despite ECU being on the other side of the state. Obvious issue with this unity pledge: it’s garbage. Uconn and Rutgers are not turning down the ACC if invited.

Since Midnight: Confirmation that the LHN was the deal-breaker in the Pac-12 decision to remain at 12 and pass on the Pac-16.

Since Midnight: report that Big East will be aggressive in expansion. Navy and Air Force at the top of the list and the conference will consider increasing the exit fee from $5 million.

Since Midnight: BYU is expected to be the #10 school added to the Big 12, assuming that Oklahoma does not pursue SEC membership.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011:

You’ll find most of the info from yesterday still holds but with a few additions.

* In addition to the Big East non-football schools discussing a split, the potential Big 12 remnants (should Pac-16 occur) and the remaining Big East football schools are considering a merger. There are multiple scenarios on the table:
1) Big East hybrid brings in all remaining Big 12 schools wich is expected to be a maximum of 5…would give Big East 12 for football and 20 for all-sports.
2) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big East umbrella without basketball-only schools
3) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big 12 banner (assuming the better Big 12 bowls for the time being)

* As mentioned on this site earlier, Villanova did officially apply to the ACC. Mentality is they don’t want to be left behind. Nova would upgrade to FBS football if need be, but would also love to join as a non-football member should a 15th school like Notre Dame join for non-football sports.

* The Big East has claimed that they will hold Pitt and Syracuse to the conference contract, meaning both schools will need to wait 27 months before leaving for the ACC. That’s 3 lame duck seasons and a $5 million exit fee. You can bet that the Big East and ACC lawyers will be negotiating, trying to find a way to get both schools out early for a set fee. ACC schools would likely contribute to the cause since the sooner they get those schools in, the sooner they can renegotiate their TV contracts by adding the Pitt and Syracuse value.

* Note that the Big East TV contract is up for renewal soon. It’s unlikely that networks will be willing to pay as much knowing that both schools and perhaps others will be leaving soon. So it would be wise for the Big East to try to milk the ACC for extra money via exit fees in return to letting the schools out early.

* If the Big East is planning to hold exiting schools to the 27 months, then one shouldn’t be shocked if the ACC invited Uconn and Rutgers sooner than later as they would need to plan 3 years in advance due to exit dates. Adding those 2 schools, 4 total, would give the ACC the majority of the markets/schools that the proposed new Big East TV contract would include.

* As expected, the Big East basketball school coaches want the hybrid to remain as for now, it means they compete against Uconn, Louisville, etc.

* The Mountain West has had preliminary discussions internally (and feeling out the school) about asking TCU if they’d like to remain in the Mountain West. If the Big East were to lose Uconn and Rutgers to the ACC and say Missouri was not part of the Big East/Big 12 merger, TCU might be wise to consider remaining in the MWC. Key will be if the MWC can get a BCS autobid, something the Big East/B12 merger will likely have. But if the group is: TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, USF and 1-3 CUSA schools, TCU might still find this group to be more appealing than remain/returning to the MWC.

* The Mountain West and CUSA are again discussing a football-only merger. The idea would be for the 2 separate conferences to combine their TV contracts for football, possibly staging some sort of championship game of champions. Note that the primary motive of the merger will be to gain a BCS automatic berth by claiming that it’s 1 spot for 24 schools, taking political heat off the BCS as it would give BCS access to those 24 schools.

* MWC might try to get BYU back if the conference had a BCS AQ.

* ECU, a school expected to once again be left out of the conference realignment shuffle by the BCS conferences, released a statement you’d expect from the former Iraqi Minister of Propaganda, proclaiming ECU is actively involved in what is happening now. That is not true if by “involved” they mean they have BCS options on their own.

* Both Oklahoma and Texas have granted authority to their school presidents to pursue Pac-12 membership. For Texas though, the regents would need to be back involved if a formal move to the Pac-12 were recommended by their president.

* Oklahoma made it clear that they are less interested in rebuilding the Big 12 due to the threat of litigation by Big 12 members, claim such threats should not be the basis of goodwill if trying to keep a conference member from leaving.

* The ACC has had discussions with Texas regarding all-sports membership, but one of the reported issues is that if Texas joined for all-sports (which is what the ACC seems to be demanding), the ACC would prefer Texas and Kansas, NOT Texas and Texas Tech.

* Uconn feels it has a better than average chance of joining the ACC.

* SEC is rumored to have less interest in WVU as previously thought.

Monday, September 19, 2011:

* As we know from yesterday, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will be joining the ACC

* Per sources, the ACC move came as a shock to the Big 12 schools, notably Texas, and has put the primary focus by Texas to be to join the Pac-12 (with Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech) or to rebuild the Big 12.

* Per reports, the Texas and ACC discussions HAD been solely about Texas joining for non-football sports and going independent in football.

* Notre Dame has been another ACC option for non-football sports. The idea was to expand to 14 for football with Syracuse and Pitt, and to bring in Texas AND Notre Dame for non-football sports. The addition of Texas without Notre Dame for non-football sports is not high on the ACC wishlist.

* Per sources, the ACC is showing some flexibility with Texas joining with Texas Tech for all-sports.

* Per sources, the ACC is not willing to be flexible in regards to the Texas LHN, meaning the network revenues would need to be distributed evenly to all ACC members (making membership in the ACC less appealing to Texas).

* Texas had similar interest in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has no flexibility in regards to the Texas LHN.

* Per sources, the Pac-12 will almost certainly expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* Pac-12 expansion to 16 would be likely approved by the Pac-12 presidents if Texas agrees to the Pac-12 TV demands in regards to the LHN.

* Texas is willing to roll-up the LHN into the Pac-12 TV regional model, but the holdup is in the distribution of revenue. The Pac-12 is holding to it’s demands that a school like Texas will not be permitted to keep more revenue and would need to put that into the “Pac-12 kitty” to be shared by all members. The rationale is that there are Pac-12 TV regional networks in places like Los Angeles that will generate more revenue that say, “Mountain” (Colorado/Utah) yet USC and UCLA have agreed to split the revenue evenly…so Texas would be required to as well if a power like USC is.

* According to Pac-12 writer Jon Wilner, Missouri IS indeed a target for the Pac-12.

* Kansas is a Pac-12 target to a lesser extent.

* Kansas and Missouri would only be considered for the Pac-12 IF Texas passes on the Pac-12 TV demands.

* The Pac-12 is considering a 4 school “Pod” system for alignment so that schools aren’t grouped into hard 8 and 8 divisions. The pods being the preference because each school wants access to California and schools like Arizona and ASU fear being cut off forever if grouped with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, Colorado and Utah.

* Missouri and Kansas would be part of a pod with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* The very mention and consideration of Missouri and Kansas as potential Pac-16 options are to put MORE pressure on Texas to take it or leave it (regarding Pac-12 offer). Because if Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Missouri and Kansas leave the Big 12, and Texas has then the ONLY option to rebuild the Big 12, Texas would be forced to be in a rebuilt Big 12 conference with a core membership of: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. Even if they pulled a coup and brought in Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, TCU…it would be a vastly inferior TV product…especially with the risk that Rutgers and Uconn could still head to the ACC, WVU to SEC.

* The Big East basketball schools are considering a split from the Big East. The fear being that with the Big East down to 7 members, they will need to expand and the likely candidates would be less desirable basketball schools (since the Big East might need to bring in Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. to get Missouri and Kansas without lawsuits from the other 3 mentioned schools.

* The Big East basketball schools are also positioning themselves so that if the core football schools leave for the Big 12, the non-football schools would not be forced to remain with less desirable basketball programs like USF and TCU.

* If the Big East non-football schools did split, they would likely target expansion candidates to 9 or 10 total members. Schools considered at the top of the list would include Xavier, Richmond, St. Louis, Butler, Dayton.

* There have been no developments with the SEC. TAMU has not officially joined until the Big 12 determines it’s own future and there are no threats of member lawsuits. If the Big 12 falls due to a Pac-16 creation, then the SEC would formally bring in Texas A&M for #13. There would be no rush for a #14, but if the Big 12 fell, Missouri would likely apply for the 14th spot, potentially even if the Pac-12 invited them, despite Missouri preferring Big Ten membership. WVU is also considered by many to be a candidate, but has much less to offer financially compared to Missouri in regards to TV market penetration.

* Over the next week of two, we could possible see:

Pac 14: Oklahoma & OSU joining
Pac 16: Oklahoma, OSU, Texas & Texas Tech joining
Pac-16: OU, OSU, Kansas and Missouri joining
ACC 14/16: Texas and Notre Dame joining for non-football sports
ACC 14/16: Notre Dame and Villanova joining for non-football sports
ACC 16: Texas and Texas Tech joining
ACC 16: Uconn and Rutgers joining
SEC 13: Texas A&M joining (confirmed)
SEC 14: TAMU and Missouri joining
SEC 14: TAMU and WVU joining
Big 12 Rebuilt: Texas, TTech, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor and Iowa St. adding 4 new members such as Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, BYU, TCU, Houston
Big East Reboot: 7 remaining schools bring in 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 football/20 school basketball conference
Big East Split: 7 remaining football schools bring in all 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 school all-sports conference
Big 12 Reboot: 5 remaining Big 12 schools bring in 7 remaining (or less is some leave) for reboot of Big 12 conference (would allow football schools to all leave Big East, causing a split from basketball schools)
Big East as Basketball-Only: 7 remaining Big East schools, all basketball members, bring in 3 other non-football schools, keeping the Big East brand.

That’s it so far…but it’s only 12:00ET today.