After holding off on formal expansion plans until after the Penn St. story slowed down a bit…along with the UCF scandal…the Big East is poised to make it’s expansion moves.

* The Big East had been working on a plan that would bring in Boise St., Air Force and Navy for football only, with UCF, SMU and Houston for all sports.

Big 12:

* As we know, WVU is headed to the Big 12…and they are suing to leave the Big East early. There are a number of takes on the validity and merit of the suit but most seem to think that the goal is simply to get the Big East to agree to a buyout so WVU can leave early.

* That said, the Big 12 expects WVU to be a member next year. It’s an optimistic public stance they must take to show support to their next member.

* With the Big 12 expecting WVU to join next year, it’s a safe assumption that the Big 12 also expects Missouri to be gone next season as having 11 schools makes little sense.

* For Louisville fans hoping to get in the Big 12…it’s not looking good. With Missouri set to leave and WVU joining, the #10 is set. And with BYU not in the conversations for the Big East #12 spot, it lessens the chance of Louisville and BYU joining the Big 12.

Big East:

* So the path to resurrection now rests in the 6 invites that have/are expected to be extended: Boise St., Air Force and Navy for football only, and SMU, UCF & Houston for all-sports.

* Boise St., UCF, SMU and Houston are reportedly working together on this…as they would be the keys to building enough cache for the conference to get the others on board.

* Air Force and Navy are the keys to the exit fee bump, so one needs to accept for that to kick in ($5 million to $10 million). It’s a safe assumption that even at $10 million, ANY school would leave in a second to join one of the top 5 BCS conferences.

* Air Force wants to join in 2013 to avoid any MWC exit fees…and that timing is a problem for the Big East.

* The CUSA schools face what will be about $9 million in lost revenue ($7 million exit fee plus lost TV revenue). That’s almost $30 million going to the remaining 9 CUSA schools…a pretty nice payday. But in moving to the Big East, it’s a bit of a gamble…as the BCS AQ is not a lock to remain after 2015.

* BYU is very much in the mix for the Big East in a football-only capacity.

* Temple and Memphis as the other schools being considered for the #12 spot. Both would accept. But with Memphis, there might be more pressure to add them as an all-sports member, to take advantage of their basketball program in Memphis, a new market, while Temple has Big East member and fellow Philadelphia school Villanova blocking their all-sports entrance into the Big East. If either school joined as an all-sports member, it would bring the total all-sports members to 17.

* The football only schools would need conference homes for their other sports.

* As for options, there are some rule changes that would need to take place for some conferences to be in play. For instance, the WAC would love to keep Boise St. and bring in Air Force for basketball. But an NCAA rule states that if a conference sponsors FBS football, you may not participate in football in another conference at the same level.

* The Big Sky is another option for both Boise St.  and Air Force as it is an FCS football conference without an NCAA conflict. However, the Big Sky only changed their own internal rules to permit associate members in the sport of football (in adding Cal-Poly and UC Davis). They would need to change the rules further to permit non-football members.

* The WCC is a potential option for Air Force, as a partner for BYU.

* Boise St. reached out to the Big West as well. There is a chance that the Big West could be the only option for Boise St.

* The Missouri Valley Conference claimed to not be interested in expansion when the Air Force rumors started in early October.

* If Memphis were selected over Temple (if BYU rejected a football only invite) then Memphis would likely reach out to the Atlantic 10 to join with it’s former CUSA mates Charlotte and St. Louis. Being that Memphis football is such a poor quality product right now, it would seem unlikely that they would be invited without their basketball program.

* Oddly, even with expansion to 12, needing 7 new members, ECU, a school that would accept a football only spot, is not on the radar. It would take 2-3 of the 6 current invitees rejecting the Big East before ECU became a real option.

Big East Overall Expansion Plan:

* The overall expansion idea is simple: if the Big East can get BYU to join as #12 and replace WVU, they would have (2) divisions based on geography…and a championship game to generate more money.

The divisions would likely be:
East: Uconn, Rutgers, Navy, Cincinnati, UCF, USF
West: Louisville, Houston, SMU, Air Force, BYU, Boise St.

The very idea of this 12 school conference is to provide a scaled down version of the original proposed CUSA/MWC partnership that was to be 22 schools. So rather than be 22 schools (or 27 with the Big East schools), the “football partnership” would be only 12, and a mix of large markets and/or powerful schools. Uconn and Rutgers provide NYC access as well as New England.

Big East Spin: What to Expect?

Once these schools accept and join the Big East, you’ll start to hear the spin as to why this is good. On paper, people will see Big EAST and question why this bastard of a combination was even created, spreading from Connecticut to Florida to Texas to Colorado to Idaho and perhaps even Utah.

What you will hear from the Big East spin machine will be:

1) benefit of this smaller 12 school partnership over the larger 22-28 school merger
2) inclusion of so many top metro cities as an appealing option to the TV networks
3) The inclusion of some football options with more national appeal such as Air Force and Navy…as well as media darling Boise St. BYU would be another homerun if they could be convinced to join.

And when people point out the geographic oddity that this conference is?

You’ll hear all about the “zipper” or “travel partners”. I prefer the Noah’s Arc approach: whereby the 12 members will be almost paired with a school near them…and then hundreds of miles away there will be another pair.

For instance:
Uconn/Rutgers in the northeast
Navy/Temple for mid-atlantic
UCF/USF for Florida/south
Cincinnati/Louisville for the midwest
Houston/SMU for Texas/southwest
Boise St/Air Force for the Mountain/West region

Of course, if BYU were there instead of Temple, you’d hear:
Air Force/Navy for service academy balance
BYU/Boise St. for mountain/west region

WVU will replace Missouri who is expected to leave for the SEC. WVU will pay a $5 exit fee since the $10 fee hike only kicks in once Air Force or Navy join the Big East…and neither has done so.

The plan is for WVU to join next year, the same time Missouri is expected to leave. If somehow Missouri opted to remain (which is not going to happen), the Big 12 would likely bring in Louisville to expand to 12. The Big 12 is still however, uncertain if they plan to remain at 10 with WVU or expand to 12 and qualify for a championship game.

If the Big 12 lost Missouri and expanded to 12, Louisville would be the #11 school added after WVU. The issue at hand is finding a #12 option. BYU remains a candidate, however there have been some issues with their inclusion. There is also the chance that if the Big East continues to lose members, that Notre Dame might flee for the Big 12 as well, since the conference has shown some willingness to invite Notre Dame as a non-football member. Such a move would also permit BYU to remain in the WCC for non-football sports and join as a football only member.

* It is being reported that the Big East has extended invitations to 5 schools:

UCF (all sports)
Houston (all sports)
SMU (all sports)
Boise St. (football only)
Air Force (football only)

* These schools have been told that if they accept, the Big East would raise their exit fees to $10 million, a 100% increase.

* Navy is the next option for the #12 spot for football, as a football only invite. But even with the $10 million exit fee, Navy has been hesitant to commit.

* If Navy ultimately rejects the Big East, Temple is expected to be invited as the 12th football member, as a football-only member. Temple had seemed to be the #2 all-sports invite option, but pressure from Villanova has put Temple is a less beneficial position. Temple is expected to accept the football-only invite if extended, as it would be an upgrade to the BCS conference from their current football-only home, the MAC.

* CUSA schools have a $7 million exit fee and forfeiture of all TV money. So UCF, Houston and SMU would have to pay roughly $8.1 million to leave CUSA to join the Big East for the 2013 season.

* The football-only invitees, Boise St. and Air Force have the most work though. Both will need to finalize plans to join other conferences for their non-football sports.

* An NCAA rule dictates that a school may not participate in one conference for football and another for it’s other sports if said conference also sponsors football. In other words, while the WAC would appear to many to be an ideal home for Air Force and Boise St. for non-football sports, it would require the NCAA to vote on a rule change. Same holds for remaining in the MWC for non-football sports, although the MWC has made it clear that is not an option.

* The Big Sky has a rule of it’s own in place that states that it would not accept a member that does not participate in football. So if the Big Sky were to be an option for either school, that conference would need to change it’s rules. They have shown flexibility of late in bringing in UC Davis and Cal Poly as football-affiliate members.

* The WCC expanded with BYU and said they would not expand. But with Air Force available, there remains a chance that conference could expand to 10 with Air Force.

* Air Force had been seeking a move to the Missouri Valley Conference, but that conference has stated they are not interested in expanding at this time with Air Force.

* In order for Air Force and Boise St. to join the Big East for football, it appears that the only options would be if the WCC accepted Air Force and if the Big Sky changed it’s conference rules and accepted Boise St. That of course would be a large step down for basketball as the Big Sky ranks as one of the lowest basketball conferences while the MWC is a top 10 conference.

* If Temple joins for football-only, they would remain in the A10 for other sports.

And yes folks, it is a reality: The Big EAST might soon have schools as far west as Colorado and Idaho. Furthermore, Air Force would be in the Big EAST for football and the WEST Coast Conference for other sports.

And with all the the options (or lack there of) that the Big East is considering, there is one that they refuse to seriously consider…I know it seems rash…but…to drop the sponsorship of the sport.

Again, I know it seems rash. But there is a solution, and it involved working with the BCS and with CUSA to get it done. Because as it looks now, the Big East is done as a BCS quality conference and baring a hail mary, there is little else that can be done.

To understand the Big East desperation, all one needs to do is look at what has become of the Big East.

Let’s start at the beginning.

The Big East originally formed as a basketball conference in 1979 with the 8 members of Uconn, Boston College, Syracuse, Providence, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Georgetown. Expectations weren’t exceptionally high for the lineup, so schools like Rutgers and Holy Cross actually turned down invitations (a decision Rutgers certainly regretted). Villanova and Pittsburgh joined within the next 2 years from what is now the Atlantic 10. But as we know, it was 1985 that changed the future of the Big East. Because that year, national football powerhouse Penn St. was rejected by the Big East when they applied…a decision the Big East has forever regretted.

Fast forward to 1991 and the Big East looked to capitalize on it’s basketball success, by sponsoring football. BC, Syracuse and Pitt were the lone football members, so the conference brought in Miami for all-sports as well as 4 football only members from the region: Temple, WVU, Rutgers and Virginia Tech.

But when you look at what the Big East was looking to become at this time, it wasn’t much different than what Penn St. had proposed almost a decade earlier: an all-sports, eastern conference to rival the SEC, Big Ten and ACC in football. The problem being that Penn St. was out of the mix, outside of the Big East. And in 1993, Penn St. opted to join the powerful Big Ten. Looking back, we now that right then, the Big East was never going to be what it could have been: a power.

The conference that Penn St. and Joe Paterno had proposed would have had many of the same schools as the Big East, notably football power Miami. But Penn St. had enough cache, that with their backing, there was considered an outside chance that Notre Dame would have had interest. Furthermore, you had schools like Florida St. and Georgia Tech that would have been targets, along with other ACC schools. When you look at the clout that Penn St., Miami and Notre Dame had in the 1980′s, it’s not a stretch to think that Florida St., Georgia Tech, Maryland and others would have considered leaving the ACC for this conference.

What could have been in 2011?
Boston College, Uconn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Penn St.
WVU, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Miami

But without Penn St., there was no Notre Dame. And without those two, there was no power to expand with stronger programs.

The time for a football/basketball split was then, when there was a chance. But the Big East passed.

So in 2003, we saw what happened: Miami, Virginia Tech and then Boston College left for the stronger ACC.

The Big East then replaced these programs (two being the top football programs to warrant the conferences BCS bid) with CUSA schools. Louisville was having some football success, but an ideal match due to their basketball program. Cincinnati had basketball success, but little in football. And USF was an FBS newcomer with only 4 years under their belt, brought into the Big East due to the perceived advantages of adding a Florida school.

But none of those programs came close to what was lost.

The time for a split was again now, where the 8 football schools could have left, brought in other all-sports schools to groom. Instead, the hybrid remained with those 3 football schools…with 2 non-football schools to keep the basketball schools happy.

And the Big East continued to be on the fence in regards to the merit of their BCS AQ. But with so many TV sets in the northeast, it was a given that the BCS would go out of it’s way to keep the BCS in the region. With only Boston College in the ACC (BCS) and Penn St. in the Big Ten (BCS) it meant that the majority of the football schools in the region were in the Big East: Uconn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU.

TCU was brought in to help that…a move that didn’t just help the Big East BCS ranking, but hurt the MWC, the conference just behind the Big East for the final BCA automatic bid.

But now TCU is gone…before they ever started.

And Pitt and Syracuse are gone.

So if you’re the BCS, you now have (3) northeast schools in the ACC, (1) in the Big Ten, and now only Uconn, Rutgers and WVU in the Big East. As we speak, WVU is also a candidate for the Big 12 and perhaps even the SEC and might be gone from the Big East.

And if you’re the BCS, there is no longer the risk of alienating the northeast markets if you have 4-5 of the top northeast schools in BCS assured conferences like the Big Ten and ACC.

The Big East is now in a position of desperation.

The only schools available are essentially warm bodies. None of the realistic options would improve the Big East BCS rankings enough like TCU would have. This is why Bosie St., some 2200 miles away from the nearest Big East school is being considered a “candidate”. UCF is a great addition, but they are not TCU. Temple is a school the Big East already kicked out when they had only 8 members…yet is now considered a crucial option for the BCS bid. But because the NCAA states a conference must have 8 all-sports members to sponsor football, both UCF and Temple are expected to be the 1st invitations extended. Yes, UCF and Temple control the fate of the Big East in the BCS.

Then you have Air Force all the way in Colorado being considered for football.

And to add some stability for the football product in the event Louisville and/or WVU leave, SMU in Dallas and Houston are considered candidates…for all sports.

So now we’re looking at a conference that could look like:

Providence, UConn, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Temple, Villanova, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Navy, Georgetown, Depaul, Marquette, Notre Dame, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU.

For football: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Navy, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU…and that’s assuming Air Force and Boise St. don’t join.

The Big East lost founding football members Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. They kicked out founding football member Temple. They then lost founding football members Pitt and Syracuse. And they most recently lost BCS bid savior, TCU. That’s 6 schools in a conference that has never had more than 8 football participants at a time.

When is enough, enough?

Isn’t it time for the Big East to hit the brakes, look around, and do something that might be based on logic and college sports and not “business” first?

CUSA schools have a $7 million exit fee while Big East schools pay only $5. CUSA schools also forfeit their TV revenue upon leaving. You read that right: CUSA schools like UCF, SMU and Houston will have to pay over $10 million each to leave CUSA, while making no money from CUSA.

With the Big East being so unstable, is it even worth leaving?

The time has come for the Big East to make a move that makes sense. It’s not expanding to Idaho and Colorado. It’s not adding new all-sports members like UCF and Temple (of Houston and SMU). And since they would need to add at least 2 all-sports schools (UCF, Temple) it’s not even worth adding football-only members like ECU, UMass, Memphis, Marshall because they’s STILL HAVE to add 2 all-sports members.

The solution: work with CUSA.

* CUSA is currently working on a football partnership with the MWC for a BCS bid. Instead, the Big East should work with CUSA and the BCS on another option: CUSA football expansion and a transfer of the BCS bid.

* Instead of the Big East scurrying to find warm bodies, work with CUSA to absorb the 6 Big East football members as football-only CUSA members.

* The 6 Big East schools would remain in the Big East for other sports (unless of course they prefer CUSA, which is doubtful).

* In accepting the Big East football-only schools, the two conferences would work with the BCS to ensure that the new conference gets a BCS bid. Yes, ranking exist to decide on BCS bids. But these same rankings existed primarily to justify WHY it was such a small club and conferences were being excluded. There is no reason why an agreement couldn’t be made to give CUSA an AQ and also give the MWC an AQ.

* In fact, the BCS could take it a step further and dictate that the top 5 BCS AQ would be worth one value, while the final 2 AQ were a lower value, still higher than the at-large bids.

The new CUSA lineup for football:

East:
UConn
Rutgers
UCF
USF
ECU
WVU
Marshall
Cincinnati
Louisville

West:
UAB
USM
Tulane
Memphis
Houston
Rice
SMU
Tulsa
UTEP

* Schools would play 7 games versus divisional schools, with 2 rotating games against schools in the other division
* Divisions would essentially be two separate conferences where the rivalries would be primarily focused on divisional rivals
* Division champions would meet in championship game with winner getting BCS bid.

Meanwhile, if you’re the networks, you’re loving this. You now have college football in a conference that covers the football strong Florida and Texas markets as well as the population rich northeast.

Alas, such logic is seldom used by conference administrators. And looking at the Big East track record, easily the most mismanaged conference in the BCS, we can assume it’s a lock they would never consider this option.

* UCF is expected to receive and all-sports invitation as soon as even today.

* Temple is considered to be the next all-sports invite from the Big East.

* Air Force is still in the mix for a football-only invite and has been exploring other conferences to host their other sports. Air Force and the WAC have had discussions. However, an NCAA rule exists stating that if a conference sponsors a sport at the same level as the school (FBS football for example), then a school is not allowed to host it’s football in one FBS conference and it’s other sports in a conference that also sponsors football. This is why Hawaii had (they also wanted) to move to the Big West for non-football sports when it moved football to the MWC…because the WAC sponsored FBS football.

* In addition to the WAC, Air Force is also exploring the MVC (conference rumored to have no interest in expanding) as well as the WCC. The Big Sky is another fallback option, although that conference would need to change it’s bylaws in order to accept a non-football member.

* Air Force is hoping that in showing their flexibility with the Big East, that Army and Navy would join for football as well. Ideally for Army and Navy, the Big East would expand to only 10, to ensure that each academy would have two conference games versus the other academies, with 6 other conference games. This would allow each to have 3 OOC games per year while still playing both other academies. The process would work for 12 schools in the Big East assuming the conference remained with an 8 game conference schedule.

* Boise St. is still high on the Big East wishlist for football-only, but it is considered a longshot. Boise St. would need to get accepted into another conference like the WAC, MVC, WCC or Big Sky. Same issues apply as to Air Force in regards to conference flexibility.

* Those questioning why the Big East would add UCF and Temple for all-sports, it’s due to an NCAA rule. FBS conferences must have 8 all-sports members to compete as an FBS conference. UCF and Temple would give the Big East 8 schools.

* In addition to UCF and Temple, the Big East is also considering SMU and/or Houston. It is believed that if the Big East brings in UCF and Temple to get to 8, and can bring in 3 from the group of Air Force, Army, Navy, Boise St…that for the 12th school, they would pick SMU or Houston, with SMU in the lead.

* If the Big East cannot get the football-only schools from the group of 4, it is believed that the Big East would bring in SMU and Houston to get to 10 football members, with all 10 being all-sports members.

* Villanova remains an option. If the Big East could get some of the football-only schools, and was at an odd 11, Villanova would be a top candidate to be #12.

* In addition to Air Force, Boise St., Army and Navy, there is another school that is an option for football-only: ECU. ECU seems to be the option for #12 if the conference opts against two Texas schools (or they pass) and Villanova opts not to upgrade to FBS.

* In the event that the Big East were at an even number for all-sports and found hesitation from 1 of the Texas schools, Memphis would be a longshot for a 12th football spot as well.
Wonder what this would look like on a map?

Here are the current 14 Big East members, with some of the current candidates included on the map.

View Proposed Big East in a larger map

So here’s where we stand:

Big 12 Stability:

* Yes, the Big 12 seems to be doing what they did just last year…pledge unity with each other, with Texas and Oklahoma being the primary torch carriers for the conference. This year, the recommended changes weren’t to help the top ranking members like last years decisions were. This time around, unity was defined as spreading the wealth. So what is on the table is equal revenue sharing for Tier 1 and Tier 2 television rights. But the kicker…

* The 6 year conference grants rights: on the table is where all Big 12 members would forfeit their TV rights to the Big 12 for a 6 year period…and the current TV deal runs for 5 years. So if a school left the Big 12, they would not even have their own TV rights for that year. The result would be a revenue loss greater than a simple “exit fee” would be. But…

* Missouri seems to be holding things up. There are reports from the SEC that they are not expecting to expand beyond 14. But it seems to be a semantics game at this point. We know the SEC has some level of interest in Missouri. We know this because all the Big 12 members, including their acting commissioner, have made reference to Missouri and the school waiting to decide if they will remain in the Big 12. As we know they are not considering an offer from another conference, it would seem that Missouri is still considering the SEC.

* The SEC semantics game is likely legal posturing. They have made it clear that a school must reach out the the SEC and apply to the SEC in order to ever be considered. Legally, the SEC is positioning themselves so that IF they added Missouri, it would be Missouri reaching out to them.

* Missouri will have a meeting on Tuesday to discuss their conference situation. If they opt to pursue the SEC, they would follow the same path as Texas A&M in negotiations. If they opt to remain in the Big 12, it is a 6 year commitment. Missouri would need to join the other Big 12 members and everyone sign the 6 year grants waiver. Result would mean Missouri would be off the table for the SEC or any other conference (Big Ten) for 6 years.

* If Missouri does have the SEC as an option, it would be tough to pass on after the past 2 years in the Big 12. Especially since passing means that if the SEC finds 13 schools to be too difficult and needs a 14th, they would be left out of that mix in favor of a school like WVU or if the SEC could obtain an ACC school.

* The Big 12 has replaced expansion committee chair, Missouri chancellor Deaton, with Kansas St. president Kirk Shultz. The assumption is the potential conflict of interest if Missouri is considering the SEC. Other sources claim Shultz has been the chair all along.

* Big 12 Commissioner Chuck Neinas says he expects Missouri to remain in the Big 12.

Big 12 Expansion:

* The Big 12 expansion plans have been all over the map. Journalists who regularly have excellent sources and information have conflicting reports on a day to day basis.

* At first, it appeared that the Big 12 would be “aggressive” and likely expand to 12.

* Then, due to feedback from the TV partners, it appeared 10 would be the number with BYU or TCU topping the list. The rationale was that the networks would value either school as much as Texas A&M, so the annual revenue would remain the same.

* It appeared that the lesser Big 12 programs favored expansion to 12 because it would promote security. That way, if 4 or 5 schools left in the future, the Big 12 would have 7-8 members and a controlling stake in their future. At even 7 schools, the Big 12 would be in a position to cherry pick schools from lower conferences. This time around, it appeared only 4-5 schools would have remained, removing much of the leverage and forcing the Big 12 “left overs” to do what other conferences, like the Big East, wanted.

* Texas was less interested in expanding beyond 10 due to potential revenue split by 12 schools and the chance it would lower the annual payouts per school…and loss of control by having 12 schools instead of just 9 others.

* Expansion in Texas was not desired by Texas. Other schools outside Texas like Kansas opposed expanding in Texas as well.

* As of today, it appears that the Big 12 is still undecided on 10 or 12 members.

* BYU still appears to top the list. The school would need to work their own ESPN/BYUtv situations into the Big 12 TV partnerships. They would also need to move their sports from the WCC to the Big 12.

* Reports yesterday claim that the Big 12, due to recommendations from their commissioner, are less hesitant on adding a Texas school (TCU). It is unknown if this decrease in reluctance is for TCU as the #10 member and sole expansion school…or if it is in the event that the Big 12 opted to expand eastward to get to 12 with TCU, Louisville, and WVU.

* If the Big 12 expands to 12, there seem to be a few paths they will consider:
A) Adding BYU, Louisville and WVU
B) Adding BYU, Louisville and TCU
C) Adding BYU, Boise St. and Louisville
D) If BYU passes, just Louisville
E) If BYU passes, just TCU
F) If BYU passes, add Louisville, TCU and WVU
G) If BYU passes, add Louisville, WVU and Rutgers
H) other 3 school scenarios less likely such as Boise St., Louisville and WVU

Big East & ACC Expansion:

* School presidents will meet in Washington D.C. this Sunday to discuss all options.

* Uconn has been posturing for an ACC invite. The ACC seems willing to add UConn but is waiting on Notre Dame at this point.

* Notre Dame is waiting to see what happens to the Big East before deciding on their future (ACC of Big Ten). More on that in a second.

* ACC looks like they might likely expand to 16 in the next year or two, perhaps sooner. If Notre Dame applies (due to Big East issues), Uconn will be invited for #16. If Notre Dame passes, the ACC might very well still add UConn and add Rutgers for #16.

* The  ACC took more control over the northeast markets with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Syracuse will likely play an ACC game in NY (Yankee Stadium, Meadowlands in NJ) each year too.

* ACC now has Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh in the region. The Big Ten still has the blue chip in Penn St. And the Big 12  is considering their own push with WVU and Louisville. This leaves the Big East with the lesser programs in the region (Uconn, Rutgers, WVU) for their share. So it is easy to see how the ACC expanding to 16 with Notre Dame and Uconn (or even Uconn and Rutgers) would be a final blow to the Big East. The ACC would then have the top 5 programs in the region after Penn St. and the TV revenue that the Big East expected to be for their conference would likely be shifted by ESPN to the ACC.

* WVU is still and will always be considered a candidate for the SEC #14 spot until the SEC fills that spot…even if the conference says 13 is fine. Because the media and fans will always focus on the symmetry of 14 and never embrace the idea of 13.

* The Big East is primarily looking at football-only members. Topping the list are Navy and Air Force.

* Air Force is a less likely option, contrary to reports, because by NCAA rules, Air Force could not remain in the geographically sound MWC for it’s other sports. MWC commissioner Thompson has clearly stated that if Air Force leaves for football, they leave for everything. Air Force would be forced to seek membership for non-football sports in conferences like the WCC, Big Sky or Summit. The WCC is less likely an option due to the conferences primary religious make-up. Both the Big Sky and Summit would be a drastic drop in quality.

* ECU and Temple are also attractive Big East options since both schools would accept football-only membership.

* UCF was considered a top option for #11 or #12 spots prior to Syracuse and Pitt leaving, as the football schools then held the power. The basketball schools were more willing to listen to adding a school like UCF then, as the Big East was stable. The basketball schools have less interest now in adding all-sports members when they are just a few schools lost away from dropping football sponsorship: translation, we don’t want to be stuck with all-sports schools we don’t want if you (football schools like UConn) leave.

* UCF is reportedly being blocked by USF anyways. So much for everyone supporting the good of the league.

* Houston is no longer an option, despite being one just a month ago for #11 or #12. See UCF two mentions above for the reason.

* Louisville coach Rick Pitino wants UL to remain in the Big East. He even promoted Memphis as an option for all-sports if they committed to football. He’s since gone dark on Memphis, instead feeling the Big East should add Navy, Army and Air Force to get to 10 members, then bring in Temple for all-sports for #11 and have Villanova upgrade to FBS for #12. Total would be 12 football/16 all-sports. Problem is that Army is not interest, Villanova does not want Temple, and Air Force and Navy would need stability (and Air Force a home for other sports).

Big East House of Cards:

* The Big East is in trouble. It could take just a single school leaving for everything to fall apart. For instance…

* If the Big 12 expanded with even a single Big East school (Louisville), then the Big East is down to 6 members.

* TCU will indeed consider remaining in the Mountain West if the Big East membership numbers drop further. Especially as the MWC is poised to apply for a BCS AQ with it’s current membership. TCU would secure a BCS AQ  bid for the MWC regardless of the BCS vote on the current MWC membership.

* If the Big East were down to 5 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati and USF…they are in trouble. The basketball schools do not what any all-sports members from the available pool (UCF, Houston, Memphis, ECU, etc). So to get back to even 9 schools without any all-sports schools, it would mean having to add football-only members Navy, Air Force, Army, ECU or Temple. Not all would be willing to join. And these schools do not scream “BCS AUTOBID”. This would be a conference ranked lower than the MWC and on par with CUSA. So there is a real threat of losing the BCS AQ.

* On top of that, you have other conferences still making moves:
A) ACC: if they add two schools, even Notre Dame and Uconn, then TCU stays in the MWC. Big East down to 5
B) ACC: still an option that UConn and Rutgers join, TCU stays in MWC. Big East down to 4.
C) Big 12: you have not just Louisville, but also WVU on the radar. If both left regardless of the ACC, TCU leaves and you’re down to 4 schools.
D) Big 12: a longshot, but 3 Big East schools could be in the mix, TCU leaves too and Big East is down to 3 schools.

* So there stands a chance that if a single school leaves the Big East, the house crumbles. So what happens?

* Big East could be forced to drop football sponsorship. The result would likely be CUSA adding the 4 remaining Big East schools for football only (say UConn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, USF). Those 4 schools would remain in the Big East for other sports.

* Can’t rule out a scenario in which Cincinnati and UCF joined CUSA for all-sports with Uconn and Rutgers for football-only (remaining in the northeast based Big East).

* The simple point:  Big East could be in serious trouble if the Big 12 adds even a single Big East school.

The Big East seems to have gone a slightly different route in their expansion plans compared to what they were doing when solely looking for a #10. One has to question how losing Pitt and Syracuse would change the types of candidates when you look at who they WERE looking at just a few months ago: Villanova (upgrade to FBS), UCF or Houston for all-sports.

And the answer has to do with the hybrid.

It’s a less discussed issue, but clearly, if the top candidates now are football-only members (more on that in a second), then it shows that either the Big East football schools WANT to maintain the hybrid with the 8 non-football schools, and/or the Big East football schools do not feel that they longer have the power (cache or number of votes) to get any and all of the all-sports schools they had been looking at.

So before we look at the Big East candidates, let’s look at the…

Big East Flight Risks:

Despite the rumored pledge to remain together, multiple Big East schools are actively seeking other opportunities. Others are not petitioning as hard, but open to a move:

Uconn: seeking ACC membership

Rutgers: seeking ACC membership, interested in Big Ten membership

WVU: seeking SEC membership for their #14 spot, but also interested in ACC membership should they expand to 16. Also considered a candidate for the Big 12 should they expand to 12.

Louisville: a possible candidate for the Big 12, also considered an option for the SEC #14 if Missouri officially passes and the SEC opts against WVU. This is still assuming no ACC school is SEc #14.

TCU: is considered to be one of the top 2 options for the Big 12 expected #10 spot. Could also be a target for Big 12 if they expand to 12. Should the Big East lose any more members, TCU is also legally able to remain in the Mountain West conference and never officially join the Big East for active play.

And now the rumored top Big East candidates are:

Navy (football-only): Navy has expressed less interest in joining until the stability issues of the conference are resolved involving schools such as Rutgers, UConn, WVU, Louisville and TCU.

Air Force (football-only): Yes, the geography makes no sense. But the rationale is that if the Big East could get Navy, Air Force would join and vice versa, uniting two of the 3 service academies (Army is not interested). The issue with Air Force is that they would need a conference for it’s other sports. Due to NCAA rules, Air Force could not compete in the Big East for football and remain in the Mountain West for other sports as if a conference sponsors a sport at the competition level (FBS), they are not permitted to put that sport (football) into another conference. The “work around” for that rule involves football independence only (BYU could have remained in MWC for non-football sports, Notre Dame is in the Big East for non-football sports.

UCF (all-sports): the school made it clear 8 months ago that they would only join the Big East is extended an all-sports invitation. When the Big East expanded to 9/17 with TCU, it made sense as UCF would be the 10th football and the even 18th for other sports, teaming them with nearby USF. However, sources claim that USF is doing every thing they can to block UCF from joining.

Villanova: the Big East member has considered an upgrade to be the Big East #10 school. Due to stadium issues and hesitations by Big East members that a Villanova addition would add little to the football profile and would potentially diminish the conference unless they committed to a much larger expansion of the proposed rented stadium, Villanova was put on the back burner as a top candidate.

Temple (football-only): a lesser candidate in the Tier 2 to Tier 3 range, Temple would allow the Big East to add an existing FBS program from within the Philadelphia market. Unlike Villanova, Temple leases the NFL Philadelphia Eagles stadium, so has no capacity issues like Villanova would. Of course Villanova would try to block Temple by all means, putting Temple in the “football only” category. Unless the football schools split off from the basketball schools, Temple is a less likely candidate.

ECU (football-only): ECU is the perennial Big East candidate…if by candidate you mean they have been trying for 20 years to get in the Big East. The Big East has lost Temple (voted out), Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College while adding WVU, Rutgers and VA Tech for non-football sports (schools were in A10 prior to Big East), Louisville & Cincinnati for all sports, a relative FBS newcomer at the time for all sports in USF, Depaul and Marquette for non-football sports, Uconn from FBS and most recently, TCU for all sports. Checking the scoreboard, that was 9 all-sports members added and 5 football schools with  ECU being left out.

This time around, things could be different for ECU.

If the Big East football schools no longer have the power to bring in any school they want at whatever price (TCU helped football but did nothing for basketball), then those schools willing to join for football-only will be easier to get voted in.

ECU has gone on the record stating they would join the Big East for football-only. They would likely reach out to the A10 for a non-football home but would likely be rejected. The CAA would be the next option to house their other sports, a logical fit. But if the CAA rejected their former member, ECU would need to look for a lower conference like the SoCon or Atlantic Sun. But with ECU being a “football first” school, it would be well worth the move.

So 20 years later, ECU might have it’s best shot. And in the fashion one would expect after 2 decades of rejection, ECU joining would likely be solely because of internal issues within the Big East, and not what ECU brings to the table. At a time where the top BCS conferences are looking to add schools providing large market penetration, national and state controlling market share, and all-sports excellence, ECU could be in the Big East within weeks solely because the Big East majority does not want to add more all-sports schools.

And ECU might even be able to slip in all of their sports into the Big East due to the USF blocking of UCF or a TCU defection to the Big 12, of any current all-sports school leaving the Big East.

Things have never been so optimistic for the ECU faithful.

Meanwhile, there is a school seemingly off the Big East expansion list that seemed to be #1 or #2 just a month ago: Houston.

Houston became a popular choice after the TCU addition, due to it’s market and proximity to TCU which was so far away from the other Big East members. On paper, it made scheduling for other sports easy: fly your teams to Dallas for a game versus TCU and the next day or so, a short flight to Houston. But like TCU and UCF, Houston would require all-sports membership. In a pre-Pitt/Syracuse to ACC world, the football schools had that cache. But now, an all-sports member from so far outside the footprint is seemingly less desirable to the Big East non-football members.

Other schools considered would start with Memphis.

Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino has gone on the record as saying that Memphis would be a great addition…but would need to commit to football. And with TCU in the league, Memphis would be a logical bridge to connect both USF to TCU and Louisville to TCU. The problem being that Memphis would need to join for all-sports to reap the benefits of their basketball program, but expansion right now is only to improve the football product…something Memphis wouldn’t immediately do.

Another school partially on the radar would be recent FBS upgrade, UMass. The school will participate in the MAC and play it’s games in the NFL New England Patriots stadium in Foxboro. Timing is what hurts UMass’ chances. The school would make for a stronger New England presence and in 2004, had the support of Providence should the basketball schools split from the football split that year. But as an FBS newcomer, UMass would do little to help retain the Big East BCS AQ bid.

The Big East now finds itself in a tough spot.

Even if they retain all 7 schools, they need to add strength and potential. UCF and Houston would be those top candidates. But both require all-sports membership. But if the basketball schools are less interested in adding new all-sports members, it means the Big East must turn to the football-only candidates.

So if 2 weeks from now, the Big East football 7 were to add ECU, Navy and Air Force for a group of 10, one should not be shocked.

Nor should they be impressed.

Timeline for Tuesday, 9/20/11 through Wednesday, 9/21/11

11AM: Multiple Big East sources said they have been told by WVU officials that WVU rejected by ACC & SEC. This news led most to believe that Missouri would be the front-runner for the SEC #14 spot.

11AM: A reminder of some Monday news that didn’t get as much press…that JMU AD Jeff Bourne said he expects JMU to upgrade to FBS within 1-2 years.

1PM: A report by @chuckolivernews seemed to imply that the SEC had interest in Louisville for the SEC #14 spot.

2pm: A report out of Kansas City claimed that the SEC had decided on Missouri for #14 and had an offer for them. This would completely contradict the SEC process, where the conference requires a school to apply to the conference before they would extend an offer.

2:30pm: Some rumors surfaces that if Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. left the Big 12, that the proposed Big East merger would happen but that BYU, Boise St., Air Force and Houston would be included as well.

3pm: T. Boone Pickens explains that the Big 12 could be saved. This was the first sign that the Pac-16 was losing steam, something we’d later see as the Pac-12 opted not to expand.

3:30pm: Uconn continues to make it’s point in wanting to join the ACC.

4pm: Texas A&M makes it clear (likely in response to Pickens comments) that TAMU is joining the SEC, regardless of what happens in the Big 12.

4:30pm: As expected, the SEC disputes claims that they invited Missouri.

5pm: Big East planned meeting detailed for the evening. Uconn was not expected to attend and Villanova asked if they could attend. Uconn president would pass on meeting, but school would have representative.

6pm: Oklahoma remaining in the Big 12 gains more traction.  Based on comments out of Oklahoma, it was clear that Oklahoma at least had a strong sense that the Pac-12 would not be willing to expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

6pm: Penn St. president goes on the record saying Big Ten, nor Big Ten schools are planning anything in regards to expansion.

6pm: Missouri announces public meeting for Thursday in Columbia, presumably to discuss the SEC, Big 12, etc.

6:10pm: As part of Oklahoma’s demands for remaining in the Big 12, they demand that commissioner Dan Beebe be fired.

7pm: Ground shaking, I know…LA Tech communicates with CUSA and Sun Belt

7pm: News of previous Big East plans comes out, includes Navy as football-only and Air Force as well joining.

8pm: It took a while, but WVU officials call the ACC and SEC rejections an “outright lie”.

8pm: Big East and Big 12 cancel any meeting between both parties under fear of legal issues. This was first step in dissolving of the entire merger concept.

8pm: Hold your hats folks, ECU formally applied to the Big East. The twitter universe is still laughing at this one with various hashtags.

8pm: The best in all covering things Pac-12, @jonwilner, reports that the the Pac-12 would have the votes for Pac-16 expansion. And he fully explains how: if Scott were to bring a formal vote on member schools, it would be only if all schools had agree to all Pac-12 demands. This was code that if Texas did not get on board with the Pac-12 TV network, there would be no vote.

8pm: Reports that the SEC had a plan that if Missouri joined with Texas A&M, that Auburn would move to the east division.

8pm: One of the best in realignment news, Pete Thamel, says Missouri is likely the only SEC #14 candidate and that the school would be in a tough spot…keep the Big 12 together after it almost fell apart 2 years in a row or preserve the schools future with a move to the SEC.

8pm: Pete Thamel also reports that no SEC divisional plans had been set, contrary to earlier reports.

8pm: with the Big East meetings occurring at this time, many in the Twitter universe recall how earlier in the day, Penn St. coach Joe Paterno referenced Rutgers as a Big Ten candidate if the conference ever did opt to expand.

9pm: More schools on the outside get some press. Wyoming tells the world what we already knew, that they are not in the position where other conferences are calling them about membership.

9pm: Mountain West confirms that they have had early discussions with Iowa St. The assumption is that the MWC was making a play for Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St. if the Big 12 imploded. TCU would likely have been brought back as well for a 14 school conference (with Baylor being left out).

9pm: Memories of what could have been…the Paterno proposed eastern football conference that would have have been comprised of the original Big East football members, likely ACC schools like GA Tech and Florida St., as well as possibly Notre Dame.

10pm: As mentioned above, the Pac-12 opted to remain at 12 members. The rationale is quite simple: the Pac-12 was open to adding Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech as the move would bring in 2 programs that would improve the football profile of the conference and improve the per-school revenue. But from the beginning, any expansion would need to involve fully equal revenue sharing. Texas was unwilling to modify it’s LHN network, so the Pac-12 passed.

10pm: With the Pac-12 off the table, Oklahoma will likely reach out to the SEC unless all it’s demands are met in the Big 12. This includes nearly full revenue sharing of the LHN and the removal of Dan Beebe. If the SEC were to include Oklahoma as #14, the state of Oklahoma might require Oklahoma St. as well. So if the SEC wanted OU, it might mean having to expand to 16. Missouri could always still be #16, but again, only if the Big 12 still implodes with an Oklahoma departure…which seems unlikely without the Pac-12 leverage.

Since Midnight: Big East schools have vowed to remain together following their meeting. ESPN reports that the conference will look at UCF, Navy, Air Force, and East Carolina. I’m not sure why Houston is not on ESPN’s list when Houston was high on the Big East radar for the #10 spot just weeks ago. Note that the same ESPN writer here claims ECU has the Raleigh market, despite ECU being on the other side of the state. Obvious issue with this unity pledge: it’s garbage. Uconn and Rutgers are not turning down the ACC if invited.

Since Midnight: Confirmation that the LHN was the deal-breaker in the Pac-12 decision to remain at 12 and pass on the Pac-16.

Since Midnight: report that Big East will be aggressive in expansion. Navy and Air Force at the top of the list and the conference will consider increasing the exit fee from $5 million.

Since Midnight: BYU is expected to be the #10 school added to the Big 12, assuming that Oklahoma does not pursue SEC membership.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011:

You’ll find most of the info from yesterday still holds but with a few additions.

* In addition to the Big East non-football schools discussing a split, the potential Big 12 remnants (should Pac-16 occur) and the remaining Big East football schools are considering a merger. There are multiple scenarios on the table:
1) Big East hybrid brings in all remaining Big 12 schools wich is expected to be a maximum of 5…would give Big East 12 for football and 20 for all-sports.
2) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big East umbrella without basketball-only schools
3) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big 12 banner (assuming the better Big 12 bowls for the time being)

* As mentioned on this site earlier, Villanova did officially apply to the ACC. Mentality is they don’t want to be left behind. Nova would upgrade to FBS football if need be, but would also love to join as a non-football member should a 15th school like Notre Dame join for non-football sports.

* The Big East has claimed that they will hold Pitt and Syracuse to the conference contract, meaning both schools will need to wait 27 months before leaving for the ACC. That’s 3 lame duck seasons and a $5 million exit fee. You can bet that the Big East and ACC lawyers will be negotiating, trying to find a way to get both schools out early for a set fee. ACC schools would likely contribute to the cause since the sooner they get those schools in, the sooner they can renegotiate their TV contracts by adding the Pitt and Syracuse value.

* Note that the Big East TV contract is up for renewal soon. It’s unlikely that networks will be willing to pay as much knowing that both schools and perhaps others will be leaving soon. So it would be wise for the Big East to try to milk the ACC for extra money via exit fees in return to letting the schools out early.

* If the Big East is planning to hold exiting schools to the 27 months, then one shouldn’t be shocked if the ACC invited Uconn and Rutgers sooner than later as they would need to plan 3 years in advance due to exit dates. Adding those 2 schools, 4 total, would give the ACC the majority of the markets/schools that the proposed new Big East TV contract would include.

* As expected, the Big East basketball school coaches want the hybrid to remain as for now, it means they compete against Uconn, Louisville, etc.

* The Mountain West has had preliminary discussions internally (and feeling out the school) about asking TCU if they’d like to remain in the Mountain West. If the Big East were to lose Uconn and Rutgers to the ACC and say Missouri was not part of the Big East/Big 12 merger, TCU might be wise to consider remaining in the MWC. Key will be if the MWC can get a BCS autobid, something the Big East/B12 merger will likely have. But if the group is: TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, USF and 1-3 CUSA schools, TCU might still find this group to be more appealing than remain/returning to the MWC.

* The Mountain West and CUSA are again discussing a football-only merger. The idea would be for the 2 separate conferences to combine their TV contracts for football, possibly staging some sort of championship game of champions. Note that the primary motive of the merger will be to gain a BCS automatic berth by claiming that it’s 1 spot for 24 schools, taking political heat off the BCS as it would give BCS access to those 24 schools.

* MWC might try to get BYU back if the conference had a BCS AQ.

* ECU, a school expected to once again be left out of the conference realignment shuffle by the BCS conferences, released a statement you’d expect from the former Iraqi Minister of Propaganda, proclaiming ECU is actively involved in what is happening now. That is not true if by “involved” they mean they have BCS options on their own.

* Both Oklahoma and Texas have granted authority to their school presidents to pursue Pac-12 membership. For Texas though, the regents would need to be back involved if a formal move to the Pac-12 were recommended by their president.

* Oklahoma made it clear that they are less interested in rebuilding the Big 12 due to the threat of litigation by Big 12 members, claim such threats should not be the basis of goodwill if trying to keep a conference member from leaving.

* The ACC has had discussions with Texas regarding all-sports membership, but one of the reported issues is that if Texas joined for all-sports (which is what the ACC seems to be demanding), the ACC would prefer Texas and Kansas, NOT Texas and Texas Tech.

* Uconn feels it has a better than average chance of joining the ACC.

* SEC is rumored to have less interest in WVU as previously thought.

Monday, September 19, 2011:

* As we know from yesterday, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will be joining the ACC

* Per sources, the ACC move came as a shock to the Big 12 schools, notably Texas, and has put the primary focus by Texas to be to join the Pac-12 (with Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech) or to rebuild the Big 12.

* Per reports, the Texas and ACC discussions HAD been solely about Texas joining for non-football sports and going independent in football.

* Notre Dame has been another ACC option for non-football sports. The idea was to expand to 14 for football with Syracuse and Pitt, and to bring in Texas AND Notre Dame for non-football sports. The addition of Texas without Notre Dame for non-football sports is not high on the ACC wishlist.

* Per sources, the ACC is showing some flexibility with Texas joining with Texas Tech for all-sports.

* Per sources, the ACC is not willing to be flexible in regards to the Texas LHN, meaning the network revenues would need to be distributed evenly to all ACC members (making membership in the ACC less appealing to Texas).

* Texas had similar interest in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has no flexibility in regards to the Texas LHN.

* Per sources, the Pac-12 will almost certainly expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* Pac-12 expansion to 16 would be likely approved by the Pac-12 presidents if Texas agrees to the Pac-12 TV demands in regards to the LHN.

* Texas is willing to roll-up the LHN into the Pac-12 TV regional model, but the holdup is in the distribution of revenue. The Pac-12 is holding to it’s demands that a school like Texas will not be permitted to keep more revenue and would need to put that into the “Pac-12 kitty” to be shared by all members. The rationale is that there are Pac-12 TV regional networks in places like Los Angeles that will generate more revenue that say, “Mountain” (Colorado/Utah) yet USC and UCLA have agreed to split the revenue evenly…so Texas would be required to as well if a power like USC is.

* According to Pac-12 writer Jon Wilner, Missouri IS indeed a target for the Pac-12.

* Kansas is a Pac-12 target to a lesser extent.

* Kansas and Missouri would only be considered for the Pac-12 IF Texas passes on the Pac-12 TV demands.

* The Pac-12 is considering a 4 school “Pod” system for alignment so that schools aren’t grouped into hard 8 and 8 divisions. The pods being the preference because each school wants access to California and schools like Arizona and ASU fear being cut off forever if grouped with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, Colorado and Utah.

* Missouri and Kansas would be part of a pod with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* The very mention and consideration of Missouri and Kansas as potential Pac-16 options are to put MORE pressure on Texas to take it or leave it (regarding Pac-12 offer). Because if Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Missouri and Kansas leave the Big 12, and Texas has then the ONLY option to rebuild the Big 12, Texas would be forced to be in a rebuilt Big 12 conference with a core membership of: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. Even if they pulled a coup and brought in Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, TCU…it would be a vastly inferior TV product…especially with the risk that Rutgers and Uconn could still head to the ACC, WVU to SEC.

* The Big East basketball schools are considering a split from the Big East. The fear being that with the Big East down to 7 members, they will need to expand and the likely candidates would be less desirable basketball schools (since the Big East might need to bring in Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. to get Missouri and Kansas without lawsuits from the other 3 mentioned schools.

* The Big East basketball schools are also positioning themselves so that if the core football schools leave for the Big 12, the non-football schools would not be forced to remain with less desirable basketball programs like USF and TCU.

* If the Big East non-football schools did split, they would likely target expansion candidates to 9 or 10 total members. Schools considered at the top of the list would include Xavier, Richmond, St. Louis, Butler, Dayton.

* There have been no developments with the SEC. TAMU has not officially joined until the Big 12 determines it’s own future and there are no threats of member lawsuits. If the Big 12 falls due to a Pac-16 creation, then the SEC would formally bring in Texas A&M for #13. There would be no rush for a #14, but if the Big 12 fell, Missouri would likely apply for the 14th spot, potentially even if the Pac-12 invited them, despite Missouri preferring Big Ten membership. WVU is also considered by many to be a candidate, but has much less to offer financially compared to Missouri in regards to TV market penetration.

* Over the next week of two, we could possible see:

Pac 14: Oklahoma & OSU joining
Pac 16: Oklahoma, OSU, Texas & Texas Tech joining
Pac-16: OU, OSU, Kansas and Missouri joining
ACC 14/16: Texas and Notre Dame joining for non-football sports
ACC 14/16: Notre Dame and Villanova joining for non-football sports
ACC 16: Texas and Texas Tech joining
ACC 16: Uconn and Rutgers joining
SEC 13: Texas A&M joining (confirmed)
SEC 14: TAMU and Missouri joining
SEC 14: TAMU and WVU joining
Big 12 Rebuilt: Texas, TTech, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor and Iowa St. adding 4 new members such as Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, BYU, TCU, Houston
Big East Reboot: 7 remaining schools bring in 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 football/20 school basketball conference
Big East Split: 7 remaining football schools bring in all 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 school all-sports conference
Big 12 Reboot: 5 remaining Big 12 schools bring in 7 remaining (or less is some leave) for reboot of Big 12 conference (would allow football schools to all leave Big East, causing a split from basketball schools)
Big East as Basketball-Only: 7 remaining Big East schools, all basketball members, bring in 3 other non-football schools, keeping the Big East brand.

That’s it so far…but it’s only 12:00ET today.

The ship is sinking and everyone is looking for a life boat. The question though, is it too late?

According to reports, 7 non-football members of the Big East, minus Notre Dame, are holding a conference call today to discuss their own conference options in regards to the state of the Big East.

The seven schools (Providence, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Villanova, Georgetown, DePaul and Marquette) have been sitting by the past few weeks as conferences like the Big 12 have considered expanding with a number of Big East football schools. The SEC has had, at some level, WVU on it’s radar as well. But with the departure of founding member Syracuse as well as Pittsburgh to the ACC, the Big East is indeed on life support.

In 2003, when 3 Big East football schools left for the ACC, the Big East discussed the option to split them: the 5 non-football schools (and perhaps Notre Dame) considered leaving to form their own conference with 8-5 other non-football schools. The football side, then at 5, considered the same as they needed at least 3 more football schools to maintain their FBS and BCS status.

The compromise made then might have ultimately been the root of the problem. In order to maintain balance in voting rights, the basketball schools approved the additions of Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida as a means to keep football sponsorship and the members such as Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Rutgers and WVU. However, the error might have been that the football side did not exert their strength as football schools, the primary NCAA revenue sport. So the football schools caved enough to bring in DePaul and Marquette as non-football members. The result: a 16 team bloated hybrid with 8, mostly small, private/catholic non-football members and the 8 large public universities sponsoring football.

When the Big East was forced to improve it’s football product, they brought in TCU, tipping the voting balance to 9/8 in favor of the football schools.

But in trying to preserve a hybrid at a time of great change in the landscape of college sports, the Big East has potentially dropped the ball. While holding on to nostalgia of a world where college basketball provided enough revenue for NCAA schools…memories of the 1980′s when Big EAst basketball schools were national brands while football still seemed to have more of a regional pull. Unfortunately for the Big East, they held on to those 80′s records, Wig-Wam leg warmers, neon jewelry, and skinny ties in a world where big bucks became solely tied into college football.

Had the split happened then, the Big East might have been able to better prepare itself for today. Sadly, had the split happened even last year, they would be in a better position. Instead, with only 7 members and the risk that 2-3 more members could leave for the ACC or SEC, the Big East is in no position of leverage. The Big 12 could opt to rebuild now by simply bringing in the Big East football schools of their choice (Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, TCU could team with Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., and Missouri for a 10 team conference.

But back to the non-football schools…

The reason for the discussions now are because of lack of options.

Sure, the Big East COULD possibly bring in any and all remaining Big 12 schools to have a 10-12 school football conference and 18-20 school conference for all other sports.

But if you are the non-football schools, when is enough? Louisville is the only school to enter the Big East that the non-football schools were 100% behind due to their primary focus being their shared sport: basketball. But other than Kansas and Missouri, the Big East non-football schools would potentially be forced to bring in schools whose basketball programs are lackluster. Sure, Kansas and Missouri would make schools like Villanova happy. But Kansas St.? Iowa St.? Baylor? These same Big East schools caved to allow Cincinnati, South Florida and TCU to join. And they might still lose schools they want like Uconn and Rutgers to the ACC, WVU to the SEC.

So when does it stop?

It was supposed to stop with Cincinnati and USF. It didn’t.

It was supposed to stop with TCU as #9 and the support of the non-football schools for Villanova to upgrade to FBS for the #10 spot…which never happened due to both Villanova and the football schools.

So now the non-football schools realize that there is little else that can be done.

If they stay, the Big East will NEED to replenish with football schools. And that is assuming that the Big East doesn’t lose more schools. Potential losses?

Louisville, WVU, Rutgers to Big 12
Uconn and Rutgers to ACC
WVU to SEC

For the Big East non-football schools, the path options are simple:

1) Be proactive and leave the Big East:
This move would likely have the 7 members leaving and inviting 3 schools such as…

Xavier (replace lost Cincinnati market)
Richmond (a school Georgetown has supported in the past for membership)
St. Louis (a logical market to add to support Depaul in Chicago and Marquette in Milwaukee)
Dayton (the school located close to Xavier has some of the best fan support to the extent that the NCAA opts to host it’s “no longer called a play-in game” there.
Butler (located in Indianapolis, is a replacement option for Notre Dame and a bridge from Xavier to Depaul/Marquette)

This would allow the non-football schools to cherry pick some of the best non-football schools to create what would be considered the best non-football sponsoring basketball conference. Of course, that is just an assumption, because nobody can foresee what effect losing schools like UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, etc will have on these programs.

The other option…
2) Prepare and wait:

The non-football schools can discuss a plan. They can show their willingness to invite Kansas and Missouri to replace Pitt and Syracuse. And they can exhibit some good will and even approve a school like Iowa St. for the football schools to bring the football total to 10 if need be. But the basketball schools can use the threat of leaving as a negotiation ploy to make sure the conference isn’t filled with schools they don’t want.

Of course, in a football world, the threat might not carry much weight. Because if you are the 7 remaining football schools, it’s just as easy for you to split from the Big East and have total control over your own membership. In the end, even if Big 12 schools aren’t available, adding Houston, UCF and Memphis will generate more money for the football schools than if they were to add any basketball-only schools.

And if the football schools leave, the basketball schools keep the Big East brand.

Moral to the story: Big East is on life support. Within 5 years or shorter, it might not even exist.