There’s been a number of rumors floating around of late to share: Charlotte to CAA (football only) & App St. to CUSA.

Note, that these are just rumors. But I’ve heard them and have now seen multiple sites discuss them as well.

So here’s the breakdown:

Charlotte & CAA Football:

The CAA is in an interesting upcoming position. The conference took over football sponsorship from the Atlantic 10, when they brought in Northeastern as a full member. Go figure that Northeastern has since dropped football, along with CAA member Hofstra. But with ODU and Georgia St. slated to join CAA Football, there will still be 6 full CAA members to maintain the brand.

But the CAA could be set for some transitions. Villanova is set to join the Big East as a football member, all they need to do is say “yes”. Fellow CAA Football member UMass, is hoping to get a football-only invitation to join the MAC, the conference home of it’s fellow A10 member and rival Temple.  Both schools seem poised to leave sooner than later, which would bring down the membership numbers. There are also concerns that with URI moving to the NEC and if UMass left for the MAC, that the final remaining northeast schools, UNH and Maine might seek other options. UNH has been considered, albeit a longshot, as a potential FBS upgrade as well…but would seem to be without a conference home. But there does exist the chance that UNH and Maine, if isolated with Towson (MD) as the closest football conference rivals, could consider a minor downgrade to join the more regional NEC. There also exists the chance that schools in the America East for it’s other sports such as UNH, Maine, Albany and Stony Brook, could one day form a new FCS conference, perhaps with other regional schools such as URI. Such a move would still require a minimum of 6 schools, so it would likely require the sponsoring conference, like the America East, to pull some sort of a coup by bringing in football schools such as CCSU as full members.

But as for the CAA, just with Villanova and UNH tilting towards leaving, it does open some potential membership holes.

But Charlotte, despite it’s ideal location in relation to the CAA, is an odd choice.

Sure, you have ODU, William & Mary and Georgia St. nearby, as well as JMU not far north from Charlotte. But Charlotte has made it clear that they indent to upgrade to FBS. Their ultimate goal would be joining schools like WVU, USF, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt, etc in the Big East. But that would likely require the Big East to split and then opt to expand from the eventual 10 number to 12. It might even take something more radical like a split and then defections by schools such as Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers, etc to make room for Charlotte in the Big East.

Charlotte would also have it’s eyes on a return to CUSA, joining members such as Memphis, ECU, UCF, UAB, Houston and others.

But first things first, Charlotte needs to field a team, find success at the FCS level within it’s own community, and then impress a conference to invite them to FBS, a prerequisite to upgrading to FBS.

So if the school is already planning to leave, why would the CAA invite them? It would seem that if the CAA does formally invite Charlotte for football-only, it would simply fill a membership spot in the present. But it might also be a way to impress Charlotte enough so that if their FBS aspirations don’t happen, then maybe the school would move it’s other sports from the A10 to the nearby CAA.

Time will tell if Charlotte has indeed been offered CAA football membership and if they accept. But it would appear that Charlotte, in need of a temporary FCS home, would jump at the chance to join a conference at the level of the CAA….and build rivalries with schools such as JMU, ODU, GA State.

Appalachian St. and CUSA:

The idea of Appalachian St. in CUSA is one that has always made sense. With such a strong Texas/West presence since the departures of USF, Louisville and Cincinnati, the remaining eastern CUSA schools such as UCF, ECU and Marshall have long desired more eastern schools. This year, the CUSA basketball tournament is in El Paso. If you’re ECU, UCF or Marshall, you can rule out any portion of your fan base making that road trip.

For the past 6 months, we’ve heard various reports of CUSA “exploring” different membership ideas. These included TCU joining for non-football sports if the Big East had only extended a football invitation. It also includes preliminary discussions with Temple about joining. There have even been reports that CUSA has at some level, considered less popular options such as bringing in both Temple and it’s rival, UMass.

But the CUSA options don’t stop there.

There have been reports that despite the lower TV revenue, they have considered expansion to 16 schools, perhaps with some of the schools just mentioned, as well as other potential upgrades such as JMU, Delaware, and new WAC invitees UTSA and Texas St. And there is always North Texas, whom many think would be the top CUSA candidate, as well as LA Tech, the WAC school that has long wanted to join CUSA.

And we can’t forget about the potential CUSA/MWC merger ideas to expand to 20 when the MWC lost Utah and BYU. That eventual turned to discussions about perhaps joining TV forces (which is no longer an option) or a potential BCS “play-in” game between the CUSA and MWC champions.

So one thing is for sure…CUSA is considering all it’s options, to be in a better position than they were in 2004 following the departures of Louisville, Cincinnati and USF.

And it appears that Appalachian St. is a very real option for CUSA. But it would take Appalachian St. opting to upgrade to FBS first.

But it does mean that either CUSA expects to lose members and need replacements (such as UCF or Houston to the Big East) or they are thinking outside the box to expand to 13-16 members.

Perhaps Charlotte too could be an option for any of these scenarios.

Southwest Conference Revival?

The last rumor is in regards to the very entity of Conference USA. And this rumor seems to have the least amount of legs.

The western presence in CUSA has certainly changed the makeup of CUSA. The change has created some tensions with the eastern schools as each one has made it clear they would prefer to be in the Big East. The western schools have made less noise, perhaps knowing that they are less likely to join the Big 12 than an eastern school is to join the Big East. The eastern schools have long wanted a stronger easter presence, and the western schools seem to have the power to make that happen…in a couple ways.

Sure, they could expand to 14 by bringing in Appalachian St. and say Temple (or Charlotte). The conference could then split into two regional divisions:

East: Temple, Marshall, ECU, Appalachian St., UCF, Memphis, UAB
West: USM, Tulane, Tulsa, Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP

But the western schools could also pull a more daring move: leave Conference USA.

Some rumors exist that Rice and SMU, former Southwest Conference members own the name “Southwest Conference”. And a minor revival could be a real option. Depending on the ultimate goals of such a radical move, membership could the same 7 “West” schools just mentioned, as well as other potential schools such as North Texas, UTSA, Texas St., New Mexico St. and LA Tech.

But due to the radical nature of such a move, one can see why it seems the least likely of the hot conference realignment rumors.

With such a change, these schools would be handing over the name “Conference USA” to the remaining members, likely to be UCF, Memphis, ECU, Marshall and UAB. These schools would likely be attempt to retain USM as the 6th member. Schools such as Appalachian St., Temple, Charlotte, JMU, ODU, UMass, Delaware and others would become potential targets.

So in many ways, the only way for a new east-coast FBS conference to form for all the potential upgrades like Appalachian St., UMass, JMU, ODU, Delaware, and Charlotte, would be for CUSA to go through radical change.

But the result would be the same: an FBS conference of larger state schools in the Big East/ACC footprint:

UMass, Temple, Delaware, JMU, Marshall, ECU, ODU
UCF, Appalachian St., Charlotte, UCF, Memphis, UAB, USM

Rumors exist and at times in this field, they come true. But thus far, all (3) seem like stretches. If I were a betting man and chose sports over playing casino online, I’d think that Charlotte to the CAA on a temporary basis seems the strongest to come to fruition.

When fellow in-state and Colonial Athletic Conference rival Old Dominion added football, it started some discussions about the sport at the Richmond school.

Fast forward a few years and the CAA Football conference is now poised to replace schools that dropped football, Northeastern and Hofstra, with Old Dominion and Georgia St. The conference still includes associate members (or technically, they just aren’t all-sports members of the CAA) with Maine, UNH, UMass, URI, Richmond and Villanova.

But there is still a strong group of CAA schools that are now in the league for both basketball, the primary sport, as well as football now: Delaware, Towson, JMU, W&M;, ODU, Georgia St.. Northern schools Northeastern and Hofstra recently dropped football. The primary advantage for the CAA having both schools was their football participation.

And with the shifting focus being on football, schools like VCU, GMU, Drexel and UNCW are wondering what the conference future is for them.

VCU is in a strong position to add football. They already have a stadium to play in, which was left over by the University of Richmond when they moved to Robbins Stadium. Fellow in-state school George Mason has also had some preliminary discussions of adding football, and has plenty of real estate to build a stadium.

Meanwhile, you have CAA schools without football sitting on the outskirts of the conference footprint: Northeastern (Boston), Hofstra (Long Island, NY), Drexel (Philadelphia), UNCW (Wilmington, NC).

Adding football at VCU and GMU would be a means for both schools to ensure that they remain connected to the rest of the all-sports schools. And with all the changes in the conference landscape, VCU and GMU might need to add football to remain up to speed with the rest of the CAA.

Richmond Times-Dispatch reporter, John O’Conner reporting that URI will join the NEC in 2012.

According to O’Conner, URI would leave for the NEC, which get’s an automatic playoff bid next season. URI has struggled for sometime in the CAA and A10 before that. The move would put them in a better regional footprint for football, a lower level of competition, and a better chance to make the playoffs.

The CAA has lost two football programs this past year. Northeastern dropped football after ironically being the very reason they were brought into the CAA in the first place a few years back. The CAA had 5 football playing members and needed a 6th in order to usurp  football sponsorship from the A10. After Northeastern dropped football, Hofstra, another northeast located school, dropped the sport as well.

If URI leaves the CAA, it would be the 3rd school from the region to depart. The CAA is currently set to be a 12 team football conferences with the additions of ODU and Georgia St. Football members who are not all-sports CAA schools include URI, UMass, UNH, Maine, Richmond and Villanova.

If URI did indeed join the NEC, they would be the 10 member. Current NEC football members include Central Connecticut State, Albany, Wagner, Robert Morris, Bryant, Monmouth, Duquesne, Sacred Heart and St. Francis.

There had been rumblings about other northeast schools Maine and UNH considering other options than the CAA due to costs. But the NEC remains the only option, and both schools would prefer a stronger conference that included regional rival UMass, which is also in the CAA.

More on the move…

On Wednesday’s final radio show for the season, Delaware coach KC Keeler said that the CAA has scrapped the proposed 11 team schedule plan (since #12 team Northeastern has dropped football). He said the CAA is now in favor of adding a football-only member.

Regarding what school would be added, he said “someone from the New York area”. Speculation is that the next CAA football school will be Fordham, who are done with the Patriot League. Stonybrook fans, whose team plays in the Big South for football are hoping that isn’t the case.

Fast forward only 4 years and Northeastern has dropped football. The move isn’t a shock to many as Northeastern has facilities that are not just worse than one of the famed Texas High Schools…they’re worse than than most Massachusetts high schools.

Now Northeastern means nothing to the CAA. With ODU and Georgia State adding football, the CAA still has the majority of the football teams, so no changes there.

But if you’re a Northeastern fan, you now find yourself in a conference that ranges from Boston to Atlanta in a mad-major. Northeastern has already had to suffer being the #5 school in it’s own market after BC, Harvard, BU and even UMass.

The one bonus to cutting football…Northeastern can now shift that money to their extreme travel budget having to fly to Virginia once a week for all their sports.

If I’m Northeastern, I’m back on the phone with the America East and asking to come back.

It’s not that much of a stretch despite the league growing to 16 schools. The reason why you here ideas like this more than a split is because of the logistics. Ideally, you’d have (2) eight school conferences. The problem is that you have (2) CAA schools in the North (Hofstra and Northeastern). The CAA would not want those schools competing in a non-CAA football league is the conference sponsored the sport.

If such expansion to 16 teams happened, ideally the division members would play all 7 other division opponents each year to determine a division champion with the overall CAA champion being decided by best overall record. The divisions would look as such:

CAA North:
Maine
UNH
Northeastern
UMass
URI
Fordham
Hofstra
Stonybrook

CAA South:
Villanova
Delaware
Towson
JMU
Richmond
W&M;
ODU
Georgia St.

But with this simple quote about the future of Rhode Island, it could be a common sense of logic that flows to other schools in the NCAA. Carothers doesn’t mention the America East, but the conferences remains the best alternative outside the A10. The NEC, MAAC, Patriot and Ivy are the only conferences in the region. A move by Rhode Island into a more travel friendly conference could be an idea that one day would benefit Northeastern and Hofstra. While neither school has expressed any real interest, it’s something that isn’t that far of a stretch: schools return to their previous conferences from time to time.

Just looking at a potential lineup, the school admins can envision their wallets fattening. And with 6-7 football members, they could get the chance to sponsor the sport after rejecting the idea in the 1990′s.:

America East:
Maine
UNH
Northeastern
Boston University
Rhode Island
Vermont
Albany
Binghamton
Hartford
Hofstra
Stonybrook
UMBC

To recap, Fordham let it be known that they want to have football scholarships, something their conference home, the Patriot League, does not allow. The Patriot League didn’t give in on the demand, which would make one think Fordham would need to find a new home.

Instead, the Patriot and Fordham came to an agreement: Fordham will add scholarships but remain in the Patriot League. But in doing so, they will not be eligible for the conference championship, nor the Patriot League automatic playoff bid.

Really?

Yes, that’s the deal. So Fordham can have scholarships but need to get an at-large bid to make the playoffs.

So the football scholarship saga is over for now. Fordham will have its scholarships, and have the luxury of a Patriot League schedule.

Waiting for a CAA Split
But why would Fordham agree to this deal? Well, they are waiting for a conference opportunity to present itself. Fordham has 3 years to work this odd Patriot League scheduling agreement as they search for a new home.

But there aren’t many options. In fact, there really is only one. What will not likely be an option will be the CAA, as that conference is set to expand to 14 teams in the next couple years. What could happen would be an A10/America East sponsored football league, made of mostly of current associate members for CAA football.

A potential split remains an option for the CAA should the right situation present itself. If Fordham makes strides as a scholarship program, they could factor into the decision for a split. Such a division in the CAA-14 would likely start with the core: the 8 all-sports CAA schools would make CAA football, and the 6 non-CAA could explore a new league. Villanova, an associate member, would likely choose to remain in the CAA and would likely be given the opportunity by the CAA admins. Richmond is right in CAA country, but if the A10 had a financial stake in a new league, Richmond might be forced to participate as a member or risk having to leave the A10.

So what likely would be the only situation in which Fordham would have a quality conference to join for football, lineups would be as such:

CAA:
Northeastern
Hofstra
Delaware
Towson
JMU
ODU
W&M;
Georgia St.
* Villanova

A10/America East Football conference:
UMass: A10 member
Rhode Island: A10 member
Fordham: A10 member
Richmond: A10 member
Maine: AE member
UNH: AE member
Stonybrook: AE member (football in Big South)
* Albany: AE member (considering upgrade)

Problems with the Fordham Football Scenario – Big Picture Athletics Flaw:
All this football talk takes away from a bigger problem. Fordham is will to spend money on football scholarships and upgrading their program at a time when they have a dreadful basketball program in the A10. They have the worst facilities and are fresh off a 3-22 record. They can’t recruit as their top players are transferring out. The Fordham basketball program is a complete mess and they aren’t far away from getting pressure by the league. When they joined there were assumptions about facility upgrades. Over a decade later, there has been no progress. The Fordham program is best suited for the MAAC right now and looks to be at the bottom of the conference.

The football drama is just that, but the bigger question is “Why?”. Why worry about football until after you’ve brought basketball to at least an average level.