CollegeSportsInfo.com » conference realignment

State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support

Matt Peloquin — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 12:04:00 +0000

This weekend, I’ll be presenting a (3) part article on the state of the WAC. The first part will cover the current state of the WAC in regards to what has happened and what it all means. The second will cover what else we could see happen or in other words, what else could possibly go wrong. The final part will be a recap of the winners and losers on a school by school basis.

State of the WAC – Part 1: WAC on Life Support:

Just a few months ago, the WAC appeared prepared to pull off a major coup and perhaps even bypass the Mountain West conference. BYU was poised to leave the MWC for football independence and join the WAC for it’s other sports. BYU would then in turn schedule a number of WAC football schools each season. With BYU being one of the power wielders in the region, the WAC football schools were set to benefit. Such a move by BYU was surely to get Boise St., the football power in the region to second guess their MWC defection and possibly remain in the WAC. Confidence was so high that many thought this colossal momentum shift might even be enough to get the western schools from the MWC, UNLV and San Diego St. to leave the MWC as well. And maybe, just maybe, if UNLV and San Diego St. joined the WAC, New Mexico would follow.

So one night WAC commissioner Karl Benson and many of the WAC school administrators went to sleep envisioning that perhaps in a matter of days, their future would be as a unity with more power and leverage against the BCS, a dream that in a matter of 1-2 years they could have a conference membership comprised of:

Boise St., Idaho, Utah St., *BYU, Nevada, UNLV, San Jose St., Fresno St., San Diego St., New Mexico, New Mexico St., LA Tech

…and the Mountain West left in shambles with only Colorado St., Air Force, Wyoming and TCU, with TCU sure to move on to CUSA or the Big East.

This wasn’t a dream that was out of reach. All that was needed was what seemed like a given: unity. But like many instances in life, the easiest aspect was in fact the most difficult to maintain.

Utah St. with it’s moral conviction, held strong to the dream laid out by Karl Benson and reportedly rejected the temptations from the Mountain West. Utah St. knew if they caved in and ate the Mountain West apple, that the WAC unity would be broken and they would kill the dream of a conference rival for non-football sports with BYU. And in an incredibly selfless act, Utah St. remained strong. But Fresno St. and Nevada had other ideas. And when Karl Benson woke up the next morning, his dream was dead. The Mountain West had defeated the WAC by simply breaking the unity and turning Fresno St. and Nevada against the WAC. And in turn, BYU passed on the WAC and joined the WCC instead, leaving Utah St. wondering how it all went wrong.

After some time to regroup, the WAC laid out a recovery plan. They brought in FCS upgrades UTSA and Texas St, to appease LA Tech, a school that could have bolted to the Sunbelt. They brought in Denver for non-football sports, a school in the heart of the WAC footprint. Seattle University was lined up as a potential 10th member for non-football, giving the conference some access to the northwest market, but was eventually passed over as it appeared the sleeping giant Montana was prepared to upgrade and join the WAC.

Montana instead opted to remain at the FCS level of football, in the Big Sky. But still, it was just a minor hiccup. Karl Benson and the WAC had done enough with UTSA and Texas St. in the fold, and added Denver as a luxury with Seattle likely to be brought in later as well.

So even after the big blow issued by the Mountain West, the WAC just needed everyone to provide just a bit more unity and remain strong.

But yet again, that was too high an expectation.

With the recent news that Hawaii is close to leaving the WAC to join the Mountain West for football and the Big West for all other sports, the “worst case scenario” is close to happening for the WAC: the end to the conference.

The NCAA has specific criteria for what defines a conference and what is necessary for the conference to obtain and retain some of the things that most people just assume are a given…such as NCAA playoff and tournament automatic berths. For a conference to retain it’s status for football at the FBS level, they are required to have at least 8 members. There is or course a grace period in play for a conference to retool after defections, something we last saw when the Big East lost 3 of it’s members to the ACC and had to bring in 3 replacements from CUSA.

For NCAA Division 1 basketball, the automatic bid to the Final Four tournament is something we’re used to seeing virtually every conference retain, including those conferences which every year place a single school in the tournament that get a #15 or #16 seed or subject to the dreaded “play in” game. But at the core of that automatic bid is a notion that the conference can undergo some minor changes but keep 5-6 core members for a given period. And with the defections of Boise St., then Nevada, Fresno St., and now potentially Hawaii, that leaves the WAC with only 5 core members: SJSU, NMSU, Idaho, LA Tech and Utah St.

And at risk now is not only the inevitable football instability, but also the future as a conference.

Hawaii was living a good life when one day the world changed around them and they were forced out of their middle-management job and forced to work at a Starbucks. Now Hawaii sees that if they leave their WAC family, including the twin buns in the oven (UTSA & Texas St.), they can perhaps one day find the life they once had. It might seem like a cruel analogy…and even worse is that in this case, one cannot blame Hawaii. College sports are a business and Hawaii, just like the other departing WAC schools, needs to put their own interests first. Loyalty is and should always be towards the tax and tuition payers of a given university, not towards a collection of other schools, especially when there exist no other schools from Hawaii that will be effected economically.

A move by Hawaii to the MWC for football positions them to maintain rivalries with a number of schools in the western region, rather than replace said rivalries with new ones with the Texas schools UTSA and Texas St. If Hawaii does indeed join the Big West for it’s other sports, they will only need to fly to Los Angeles and San Francisco in order to reach all their opponents. No longer will they need to fly to Spokane to play Idaho, El Paso to play NMSU, Louisiana and then a bus ride to play LA Tech.

So the potential Hawaii moves make sense. It’s just that the WAC is now in a tough spot.

So What’s Next for the WAC?

The NCAA rules are in place and if taken literally, the WAC could be in trouble. But like any rules put in place, they are done so to protect the spirit of the NCAA and the well-being of individual schools and were not created as a form of punishment against a conference. It’s not as if the WAC decided to eject 4 of it’s core members because they didn’t like them and wanted to replace them with better candidates. In such a shocking situation, one would expect the NCAA to follow through with the policies they’ve set to protect those institutions that would have been ousted from their conference home. In other words, the NCAA rules exist so that conferences can’t take advantage of it’s own members in order to improve the good of a select few in regards to membership (certainly not the case with TV contracts).

But the WAC is clearly the victim here.

And with the WAC being victimized, now with only 7 football schools and a single non-football school being left in potential limbo, the NCAA might have to consider it’s options: stick to the literal translation of the rules and enforce them…which would punish the WAC schools left behind. Or work with the WAC to assist them since they are already suffering due to losing four schools. It might be an optimistic outlook, but the current WAC situation is one in which the NCAA can serve as a protector and not a punisher.

The quickest remedy for the WAC would be to find an 8th football school. The problem is that none exist at this time at the FBS level. Schools in existing conferences like the Sunbelt will be weary to leave for the WAC when there appears to be no real gain in joining, nor proof that the conference will remain stable. North Texas and Arkansas St. would be fine additions with LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. in the WAC, but North Texas rejected the WAC in 2005 when the WAC had members like Boise St., Nevada, Fresno St. and Hawaii.

FCS upgrades such as Texas St. and new football schools such as UTSA are the only real options. The problem is that other than those 2 schools which have already announced for the WAC, there are no real options. The WAC had reached out to Montana, a school many have expected to make the leap to the highest level of football, especially since Montana would have instant rivalries with nearby schools Idaho and Utah St. Instead, Montana has opted to remain at the lower level of Division 1, in FCS.

The WAC is now faced with having to be more proactive in finding another FCS school to make the leap.

There are a number of schools that are not nearly as ready as Montana that might have to be contacted again. Schools like Sacramento St., Cal Poly, and UC Davis would need to be convinced by the WAC that this is the ideal time to make the upgrade and join nearby San Jose St. in the conference.

Portland St. is another school that could be contacted again and pressed to join now, knowing that they would likely be able to have a quicker impact due to the current crippling of the WAC football product.

Texas schools Lamar and Sam Houston St. have expressed interest in upgrading, but don’t have the economics in place to make that happen right now. But with the WAC in a desperate state, there could always be economic concessions made to both schools to assist in a much earlier upgrade.

But even if the WAC were fortunate enough to find an 8th football school, the basketball product might still need some reinforcements.

Seattle University had been considered for the WAC at the same time as UTSA, Texas St., and Denver, but were passed over as the WAC expected Montana to join, giving the WAC 9 football members and 10 basketball schools. With Montana passing, it only seems like a matter of time before Seattle is officially invited. As Seattle currently has no conference home, there is no risk in them joining a questionable WAC.

Utah Valley is another school without football and without a true conference home. They participate in the scheduling arrangement of a conference, the Great West. Utah Valley could give the basketball product of the WAC some reinforcement in membership numbers.

Deep in the south of Texas is Texas-Pan American, another Great West school without football. With the new additions of UTSA and Texas St., UTPA makes more sense now that they ever did before for the WAC.

Cal St. – Bakersfield is the last of the homeless schools in the region. As a recent Division1 upgrade, CSUB has hoped for membership in the Big West, the logical fit for them. But with Hawaii potentially joining the Big West, it would put that conference at 10 members. Expanding to 11 would be difficult to schedule, especially with the addition of Hawaii and the complications that their joining would have on travel concerns. For CSUB to join the Big West, it might require the conference to look for a 12th school. But like the WAC is seeing, there just aren’t many options. Seattle University, despite their location, might be the only easy 12th candidate for the Big West as at least travel would be easy with the Big West schools close proximity to Los Angeles and San Francisco
airports (and Seattle University being just a few miles from the SeaTac international airport). The Big West could also try to work with the Big Sky and bring in Sacramento St. for non-football sports as the 12th school. The Big Sky was expecting South Dakota to join as the 12th all-sports member (and 14th football member), but passed when a more attractive offer came from the MVFC and Summit League. At an awkward 11 members for all-sports, a defection by Sacramento St. would bring the Big Sky to a more manageable 10 members for non-football sports.

It seems less likely that any Big West or Big Sky schools would consider the WAC for non-football. While Sacramento St. to the Big West arguably makes sense for non-football sports, they would be increasing their travel even more from the Big Sky if they joined the WAC.

For the WAC to fully protect itself, they could go with a larger membership by bringing in a number of the above mentioned schools. Such a lineup could look like (* = includes football):

West Division:

Seattle

* Idaho

* Utah St.

Utah Valley

* San Jose St.

* (unknown) An 8th football school such as Sacramento St., UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland St)…if no football school, then CSU-Bakersfield is an option.

East Division:

Denver

* New Mexico St.

* UTSA

* Texas St.

* LA Tech

UTPA

It’s certainly not the best looking conference. And to see a multiple basketball bid conference having to turn to independents and Great West members is tough to swallow. Even worse is that the WAC now NEEDS FCS schools to upgrade to stabilize their current football members.

But the question is: if the world around you is collapsing, and you have other options, why would you remain. And the answer is simply that you wouldn’t. As we’ve seen with Hawaii, and with Nevada and Fresno St. right before, the greatest obstacles to the WAC’s stability are the WAC members themselves.

In Part 2 of the State of the WAC, we’ll look at some of the scenarios that could play out in the coming months.

State of the WAC: What Else Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Matt Peloquin — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 12:03:00 +0000

State of the WAC – Part 2:
What Else Could Possibly Go Wrong?

The quick answer: EVERYTHING.

As we’ve seen in every other instance of conference realignment, there is always the impending “trickle down”. When one conference at the top of the pecking order makes a move, the next conference below follows and so on. For the WAC, they are clearly at the very bottom of the pecking order now.

What started with the Fresno St. and Nevada departures, and perhaps continuing with Hawaii, loyalty and unity are no longer factors. We’ve reached the boiling point where schools will now consider all their options. Schools like LA Tech who have passed on the very idea of joining the Sunbelt as they wait for a CUSA invite, might have to make a move. Other schools like Idaho and SJSU are crossing their fingers as they have less options.

So what else could happen?

Here’s a look at a few direct scenarios in which other conference invite current WAC schools as well as the “trickle down” effect in which subsequent conferences seek WAC schools as replacements:

Mountain West Expansion: If TCU leaves, Denver could be brought in for non-football sports along with Hawaii for football.

Multiple sources have confirmed that TCU and the Big East have had discussions about the Ft. Worth school joining as that conferences 9th football and likely 17th all sports member. Sources have reported this week that the talks might have escalated and an announcement pending the completion of the football season. If TCU leaves the MWC and Hawaii joins, the conference will have 10 football members and 9 for other sports. The MWC could always bring in Denver, right in the heart of their footprint, to be the 10th non-football member. However, reports today are pointing to the MWC expanding to 12 football schools.

Result:

WAC loses Denver

Mountain West: If TCU leaves the MWC, the conference could expand by (2) to get to 12 from a pool including Utah St., Houston, UTEP, SMU, New Mexico St.
CUSA: seeks 1-2 replacements from Sunbelt & WAC
Sunbelt: seeks 1-2 replacements from WAC

If TCU leaves, the MWC could remain at 10 for football with Hawaii and 9 for all other sports. But then again, they could expand to 12 with two more schools and stage a conference championship game, as sources today are claiming. Fox recently agreed to a $25 million a year deal with the Big Ten to televise their championship game. If the MWC could get even $2 million from FOX, it might justify further expansion.

If the Mountain West expands, they have a number of options. Utah St. remains high on the list to replace some of the market loss of the BYU and Utah departures. Houston seemed like a top option and remains it as long as TCU is still a member. But without TCU in the conference, there might be less of a desire to expand east. Then again, the MWC could replace TCU with both Houston and SMU, maintaining some access to the Dallas market via SMU and gaining some exposure in the Houston market. And if CUSA loses 1-2 schools, the trickle down starts again. CUSA would again consider Temple, as well as schools like North Texas and LA Tech. And if CUSA brought in North Texas, the Sunbelt might then bring in LA Tech and or New Mexico St. Even UTSA and Texas St. could be on the radar for the Sunbelt or even CUSA at that point.

Result:

WAC could lose 1 school to MWC (Utah St.)

WAC could lose 1-2 schools to CUSA (either LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA or Texas St.).

WAC could lose 1-2 schools to Sunbelt (either LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA or Texas St.).

Denver to the MWC for non-football remains an option.
Final Tally: WAC could lose 3 of it’s 7 football schools

Mountain West: If TCU remains in the MWC, the conference would have 11 schools and could bring in Utah St., UTEP, or Houston as the 12th member;
CUSA: seeks 1 replacement from Sunbelt of WAC
Sunbelt: seeks 1 replacement from WAC

If TCU opts to remain in the MWC (as unlikely as that seems), they would likely seek a 12th member so they could stage a conference championship game. And it makes sense as 12 for football and 11 for basketball would be manageable and generate extra revenue. Houston would be the top option, to partner in Texas with TCU. Utah St., another option, could be brought in to replace the lost markets due to the BYU and Utah departures. UTEP could serve as a bridge from New Mexico to TCU as well. And if either Houston or UTEP left CUSA, that conference might look at Temple and North Texas, but also would highly consider WAC members as repalcements.

Result:

WAC loses a single member to MWC (Utah St.)

Or single member to CUSA to replace Houston or UTEP: (LA Tech, UTSA, NMSU).

Or single member to Sunbelt to replace North Texas should CUSA need to replace Houston or UTEP (LA Tech, UTSA, NMSU, Texas St)

LA Tech and/or NMSU say “enough is enough” to the WAC, leave for Sunbelt.

For years, LA Tech has scoffed at the idea of joining what they considered a bottom feeder Sunbelt conference. But overnight, things changed. All of a sudden, even with UTSA and Texas St. joining, the Sunbelt might be more appealing than the WAC. So if Hawaii leaves, perhaps LA Tech reaches out to the Sunbelt and applies for membership. NMSU, seeing the writing on the wall now that Hawaii is leaving, could do the same.

Result:

WAC loses LA Tech and/or NMSU, football membership down to 5-6 schools.

LA Tech & NMSU say enough is enough and head to Sunbelt; Sunbelt supplies lifeline to UTSA and Texas St.

It might not be so much of a stretch. The Sunbelt is currently set to be 10 football members with the addition of South Alabama’s football program. 14 is not the ideal number, but in adding the (4) WAC schools, the conference would be positioned well for a future CUSA raid. They would also be able to divide into (2) regional divisions:
East: FAU, FIU, USA, Troy, MTSU, WKU, Arkansas St, *UALR (if they aren’t in the Southland or Summit by then)
West: NMSU, North Texas, UTSA, Texas St., LA Tech, ULL, ULM

Result:

WAC loses LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA and Texas St. to Sunbelt

Big East Expansion: Adds UCF or Houston and TCU
CUSA replaces UCF with 1 school from pool of North Texas, NMSU or LA Tech
MWC replaces TCU with Utah St. or Houston from CUSA
Sunbelt: replaces departing school with 1 WAC replacement

In addition to TCU joining the Big East, an upgrade by Villanova as the 10th Big East football member is on the plate. But if Villanova passes on the upgrade option due to the obvious economic concerns, UCF is expected to be targeted as well as Houston. If UCF leaves CUSA, reports 3 months ago said Temple was a likely candidate in either a football-only or all-sports capacity if any members left. This would certainly make CUSA members ECU and Marshall happy. But it’s also likely that CUSA could bring in North Texas from the Sunbelt. If that happens, the Sunbelt might look at bringing in 1-3 from the pool of LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA and Texas St. CUSA might also directly invite LA Tech or UTSA. And of course, the MWC would replace TCU as well as adding 2 new schools to reach the 12 school number reported today.

Result:

9s/s1600/University-of-Texas-San-Ant.png" style="cursor: move;" />

WAC could lose Utah St. to MWC, 1-3 members from the LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA and Texas St. pool to CUSA of Sunbelt via the trickle down.
Final Tally: WAC down to potentially 3 football members

Big East Split & Expansion: if Big East expanded to 12 after a split from the basketball schools, that might include up to 3 CUSA schools such as UCF, Houston, Memphis and ECU.
CUSA: replaces 3 departing schools with 3 from WAC and Sunbelt
Sunbelt: replaces and departing schools with WAC schools

TCU and Villanova appear to remain at the top of the Big East wishlist in their planned expansion to 10 football schools. But if Villanova passes on an upgrade, the Big East will look at Houston (regional partner for TCU) or UCF. And if the Big East was real bold and expanded to 12 schools, you could see Memphis in the mix as well as perhaps ECU. It would seem that if the Big East expanded to 12, CUSA would have at least 3 openings. And the candidates are all the same names: North Texas, LA Tech, UTSA, Texas St., NMSU, Arkansas St., etc. The WAC would likely lose schools directly to CUSA and indirectly as others flee for the Sunbelt.

Result:

WAC could lose Utah St. to MWC and 3-4 schools from LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA and Texas St. pool.
Final Tally: WAC down to only Idaho, SJSU and Denver.

There are a number of different scenarios that could play out…too many different permutations to include in one spot. But one thing is clear: there are WAC schools, that even during these dark times, are poised to have future options.

The foundation is being built right now for what seems to be a minor consolidation of schools in various regions with the MWC movement these past few months and the Big East looking to expand from 8 to 10. The new schools added to these conferences might not come directly from the WAC, but the WAC’s placement at the bottom of the trickle down order means they are likely destined to have future membership changes. For schools like Idaho, they’ll just have to hope that the consolidation sticks to the regional trends.

Read More:
An now on to the winners and losers in the WAC shuffle…

Hawaii Saying Aloha to the WAC

Matt Peloquin — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 06:12:00 +0000

They might be thousands of miles off the mainland, but Hawaii is about to shake things up in the conference landscape.

Hawaii apparently has a handshake deal with the Mountain West to join for football only. Their other sports would likely be moved to the Big West.

While all eyes focused on the football moves the WAC has made of late to protect that sport, it’s basketball that is the bigger problem right now. If Hawaii departs, the WAC could be at risk of losing their automatic qualifier to the NCAA tournament.

If Hawaii departs, the WAC will have to sort things out. There are few football options to join. Seattle will likely make the move to the WAC now, but the loss of Hawaii would be a big blow.

As for the Mountain West, a potential Hawaii football inclusion could tie in with the potential departure of TCU to the Big East. If TCU leaves, the Mountain West would likely remain at 10 football members with Hawaii. If TCU remains, the MWC might reach out to Utah St. to replace the departing Utah and BYU in the Utah market. Such a move would give the MWC 12 football schools and the opportunity to have a conference championship game.

Conference Realignment Grid & Map Updates

Matt Peloquin — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 07:46:00 +0000

We’re pleased to announce some massive updates to the Conference Realignment Grid. You’ll now find it easier to jump to a specific conference via a new navigation menu.

You’ll also find it visually more appealing as all the school and conference logos are included.

Anyone interested in discussing the grid and providing any worthwhile updates should visit Conference Realignment Grid forum

Take a look and tell a friend!

We’d also like to thank Michael Bazzanella who undertook a big update for the CollegeSportsInfo.com Map of all NCAA Division 1 Schools. You’ll now find all the school logos included for each listing thanks to Michael’s work.

Big West Lifts Membership Moratorium – Expansion Coming?

Matt Peloquin — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 06:21:00 +0000

It wasn’t the biggest news yesterday, but the Big West officially lifted their membership moratorium. The conference originally put it’s membership on hold in 2005, a move that took some pressure off the idea of adding then soon-to-be Divison 1, Cal-Bakersfield.

The Big West, a conference that over the past decade has transformed itself into an all-California group, currently has 9 members. Cal St. Bakersfield has long hoped for an invitation to join it’s California brethren in the Big West. But recent developments in the WAC might complicate that picture.

Since the departure of Boise St., the retreat by BYU to join for non-football sports, and the future losses of Fresno St. and Nevada, Hawaii has been looking to potentially leave the WAC for football independence. The largest problem was not having a home for it’s non-football sports. The Big West has been a top conference that Hawaii has targeted. And it makes sense. Hawaii currently has to transport all their sports athletes to such locations as Logan, UT, Las Cruses, NM, Moscow, ID, Ruston, LA, etc. A move to the Big West would mean having to fly to one of the 4 Los Angeles airports or 3 San Francisco airports. Hawaii would also likely have to offer the Big West schools some travel subsidies to travel to Hawaii. But that amount might be more tolerable as schools would only need to fly from SFO or LAX.

The Big West has set no timetable or set an official expansion plan. Hawaii remains an option, as does Cal St. Bakersfield. Bringing in both members might be less likely as it would mean 11 schools. The longshot would seem to be if Sacramento St. agreed to move to the Big West to bring the membership to 12, a move that would bring the Big Sky to a more manageable 10 all-sports members with 13 for football.

Summit League Expansion: Tom Douple Radio on WDAY, UNO mention

Matt Peloquin — Sun, 07 Nov 2010 16:52:00 +0000

Per Jeff Kolpack, it appears that the idea of Nebraska-Omaha joining the Summit League could be closer to reality. On his site, he gives a recap of the interview Summit League commissioner Tom Douple had on his radio station, WDAY. Douple says he has indeed had discussions with UNO athletic director Trev Alberts about the school joining.

The trickle down of a UNO upgrade would be interesting to watch. The Summit would bring in another member in the region, something that will come in real handy should Oral Roberts ever get approached by the Southland. But it could create some buzz in the MVFC as well. The league passed on the 11 team model, which resulted in North Dakota leaving for the Big Sky. But if UNO is in the mix, North Dakota could move to the Summit League and with UNO, join the MVFC for football.

In such a case, a 12 school MVFC could split into two divisions with UND, NDSU, USD, SDSU, UNO and UNI forming the west division.

As for the Summit, if they can get UNO in the fold, it will further stabilize their conference in it’s newly focused footprint. An added bonus would be for North Dakota to join as well.

It should be noted that while not mentioned in the article, we can assume that UNO would not upgrade to Division 1 unless it had a football conference home already lined up.And the Summit/MVFC option seems the most likely. And that opens the door for North Dakota to join the MVFC as well. Of course the Big Sky could ruin things is they had their own discussions with UNO.

Kolpack as mentions that the Summit League has confirmed some level of discussions with Arkansas-Little Rock. Another school in the mix is St. Cloud State, which has reviewed dropping football not that long ago.

South Dakota Passes on Big Sky, Will Join Missouri Valley for Football

Matt Peloquin — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 05:48:00 +0000

In a last second move suggested multiple times on this site, the University of South Dakota got their hail mary pass to keep them from leaving for the Big Sky.

USD had appeared in line to join the Big Sky, following former Great West football partners Southern Utah and North Dakota as full members of the Big Sky. North Dakota and South Dakota both hoped that the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which houses NDSU and SDSU, would extend a lifeline so that they could remain in the Summit with the Dakota St. schools, but gain a football home.

The MVFC did not make a move to keep North Dakota from making the move.

But they have done so to keep South Dakota in the fold.

South Dakota will require little transition. They will remain in the Summit League for the majority of it’s sports. For football, they will likely join the Missouri Valley after next season.

With South Dakota remaining in the Summit League, it leaves the Big Sky with 11 all-sports members, and 13 for football.

With no other current FCS level football schools available, the Big Sky will likely remain at the 11/13 number. If the Big Sky finds the 11 number difficult for basketball, they could always invite Seattle as the 12th basketball member. Seattle appears to be left out of the WAC plans at this time as Denver appears to be the only non-football school to get an invitation. The Big Sky might also lose Montana in the future to the WAC, which would bring their numbers down to 10 for all-sports and 12 for football.

WAC Expansion Expected for Next Week: UTSA, Texas St., Denver…not so fast Seattle

Matt Peloquin — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 04:58:00 +0000

As reported last week, the WAC timetable for expansion seems to be holding and the conference is expected to expand as early as next week.

There does appear to be one potential change of plans.

UTSA and Texas St. are expected to receive formal invitations next week. Denver, a non-football member will also get one and expected to accept. Seattle however seems to be the odd school out. If had appeared that they had finally found a conference home when the 6 team WAC laid out initial plans to invite the two new football schools to get to 8 members, and Denver and Seattle to get to 10 basketball members. However, reports now claim that the WAC will likely expand with the 8/9 model and invite only Denver. In doing so, it would leave an all-sports opening for Montana to upgrade down the road.

For Seattle, it appears they’ll have to cross their fingers and hope for a WCC invitation.

Big East Approves Expansion Goal of 10 Teams

Matt Peloquin — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 13:21:00 +0000

So now the real fun begins. It took a few decades, but the Big East is finally grasping that when you’re the little fish, it’s time to grow. The Big East released a statement from their meetings today that they will indeed look to expand to a likely number of 10 football schools.

The announcement from the Big East isn’t much of a shock since the conference has had discussions about the topic since back in April. What we know is:

* The Big East is now looking at expansion

* 10 schools seems to be the ideal vision but that could change to 9 schools or even 12 schools if the right mix were available.

As for “right mix”, we can assume that would take something more drastic happening in another conference. For example, when it appeared that the Big 12 would be left with only 4-5 schools this past summer, the Big East could have had the opportunity to invite Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St. and Iowa St.

But if the options were UCF, TCU, Houston and Memphis, it’s less likely that the Big East will expand to 12.

So what will likely happen?

The Big East has had it’s eyes set on Villanova for a number of reasons. The school is already a member for other sports and would keep the current hybrid happy. And the school is in the Philadelphia market. But Villanova would have much work to do. They are a small school with a limited fanbase. They have no FBS stadium like nearby Temple has via their lease with the local NFL stadium. And rather than give Temple a seat at the big table, the conference seems set on bringing in a FCS upgrade in Villanova. Needless to say, other non-BCS schools like those in the MWC, WAC and CUSA might have something to say about an FCS upgrade getting access to BCS money via the automatic bid the Big East has, while their programs and conferences are left on the outside.

But for whatever the reasons are, if Villanova opts to upgrade, they will be the 9th Big East football school.

The next school on the list is TCU.

TCU has expressed interest in the Big East, and the Big East is interested in TCU. As a private Christian school, TCU would fit in with the non-football schools which make up 8 of the current 16 members. TCU would provide the Big East with exposure in the Dallas-Ft. Worth market. Despite TCU currently being in a conference that is primarily in the Mountain and Pacific timezones, a move to the east coast conference would hardly be a culture shock. In professional sports like the NFL, the Dallas market has been aligned with rivals in New York, Philadelphia and Washington.

In all likelihood, the Big East expansion process is already set with your next members being Villanova and TCU.

So what hiccups could change that?

The biggest seems to be if Villanova opted to pass on the expensive upgrade. And it’s not a stretch to imagine. Villanova does not have the ideal fanbase to support FBS football. They’d need to build a stadium which would cost many millions…and they’d have to fill that stadium. Sure, Villanova could lease the Philadephia MLS stadium, but even that would be
a small facility compared to other FBS schools.

TCU would likely accept an invitation. The only hiccup would be if a more attractive invitation came from the Big 12.

So what if Villanova passes?

Then it’s to the pecking order.

We know that the Big East has looked at a number of schools. The consensus is that the total candidate pool includes:

Villanova

TCU

UCF

Houston

Memphis

Temple

ECU

If Villanova passes on the FBS upgrade plan, the Big East might be able to break down the search for candidates into a more simple system:

1) Add TCU and as a travel partner of sorts, bring in Houston

2) Add TCU and add the Orlando market via UCF

3) Add TCU and still add the Philadelphia market via Temple.

In a previous article here, we covered some of the pros and cons of the candidates:

UCF:
- Offers the Orlando market and strong penetration into that market.
- The fastest growing school in the recruiting rich state of Florida with a total enrollment of 54000
- Historically a stronger football program than many candidates
- Newer stadium on par with the top Big East facilities
- willingness to join for football only

Memphis:
- Offers the Memphis market and unlike Villanova, the school has a stronger presence in the city (albeit primarily for basketball)
- Entrance into the south, traditionally a stronger recruiting area of the country
- sponsorship revenue by FedEx
- potential to become a stronger football program due to it’s regional location
- A good fit with former CUSA members Louisville, Cincinnati and USF

Temple:
- Recent success under their new coach
- A stronger current football share in the Philadelphia market
- Lease of an NFL stadium
- willingness to join for football only

ECU:
- Further penetration into the south via the North Carolina school
- a strong following, large school, with strong attendance numbers
- willingness to join for football only

TCU:
- recent football success with access to the BCS
- offers access to the Dallas market
- well funded athletic program with various stadium options at a given time
- a private christian school
- A good fit with former CUSA members Louisville, Cincinnati and USF

Houston:
- recent football success
- offers access to the Houston market
- A good fit with former CUSA members Louisville, Cincinnati and USF

As for the future of the Big East, the ball is now officially rolling.

There will be some potential trickle down to the other conferences to consider.

If TCU and Villanova join the Big East, the Mountain West would lose a school. They might look to replace TCU with Houston from CUSA. Utah St. or Hawaii from the WAC could be options as well.

If the Mountain West replaced TCU with a CUSA school, CUSA would likely consider Sunbelt school North Texas, as well as future FBS members UTSA and Texas St. LA Tech of the WAC could be an option as well.

If CUSA lost multiple members like UCF and Houston, then it would likely be as simple as CUSA choosing (2) of the schools mentioned above.

Big Sky Expansion: Southern Utah & North Dakota Expected to Join Big Sky on Monday, South Dakota Could Follow

Matt Peloquin — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 09:08:00 +0000

Multiple sources have reported that on Monday, the Big Sky will announce the additions of Southern Utah and North Dakota as full members. South Dakota will/has received a formal invitation as well, but it is not yet confirmed that they have accepted.

North Dakota had a scheduled campus visit set for next week for Summit League authorities. But North Dakota, not the Summit, has cancelled the planned visit (which was to be the final step before a Summit League invitation).

Finding a football home was a top priority for North Dakota. The Grand Forks Herald speculates that the lack of progress for a proposed Summit/Missouri Valley Football Conference merger is the reason for North Dakota joining the Big Sky.

Meanwhile, Southern Utah looks to have finally gotten what it’s wanted for decades: Big Sky membership. With in-state rival Weber St. to the north, and NAU in Flagstaff, AZ just a few hours south, Southern Utah will not only have a home for it’s football team, but a more travel friendly conference for it’s other sports.

Southern Utah will have a 2pm press conference on Monday to announce their Big Sky invitation acceptance.

As for South Dakota, at the time of this article, they have not made public their intentions. At the time of the North Dakota and SUU news, it is likely that South Dakota was unaware of both schools making their intentions public.

It is likely that USD will in fact accept the invitation since they will have no other football conference membership on the table. Perhaps USD is hoping that the MVFC will receive some last minute pressure from members NDSU and SDSU to extend a lifeline to USD via a football member invitation. Baring that emergency lifeline, it appears South Dakota will be joining the Big Sky as well.

Big Sky membership will increase to 12 full members, with 14 for football as UC Davis and Cal Poly are new associate members for the sport. It is unknown at the time of this article if the Big Sky will divide into divisions, which are of less significance as FCS football conferences at this time do not hold conference championship games.

Big Sky membership will look like:

North Dakota

South Dakota

Northern Colorado

Weber St.

Southern Utah

Northern Arizona

* Cal Poly

* UC Davis

Sacramento St.

Portland St.

EWU

Idaho St.

Montana St.

Montana

* = football only

The sudden change in the Big Sky membership will have a harsh impact on the Summit League. As discussed on CollegeSportsInfo.com this week, the Summit League will have to consider expansion to replace the losses of Southern Utah and likely South Dakota. North Dakota was expected to be the replacement for Centenary which is downgrading to Division 3.

With departures by Southern Utah, South Dakota and North Dakota off the menu, the Summit League will be down to 8 total members:

North Dakota St.

South Dakota St.

Missouri-Kansas City

Oral Roberts

Western Illinois

Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne

Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis

Oakland

Of those 8 schools, a few remain potential targets by other conferences. Oral Roberts could be a candidate should the Southland seek to replace the soon to be departing UTSA and Texas St. NDSU and SDSU have always had their eyes on full Missouri Valley membership. And WIU would love to take a spot in the OVC.

The Summit League options are somewhat limited. Denver is expected to move from the Sunbelt to the WAC conference. Arkansas Little Rock might eventually leave the Sunbelt, but would likely contact the Southland first due to stability problems the Summit League might be facing.

The list of Summit League expansion candidates is quite small. The only current Division 1 candidates are Chicago St., Houston Baptist, Utah Valley and Texas Pan American. Division 2 schools of interest could include Nebraska-Omaha, Bellermine, Missouri-St. Louis, to name a few.

But it appears that all the growth that the Summit League has made this decade, to rise from the bottom of the conference pecking order above the Great West, Atlantic Sun and perhaps others, will be stunted. The Great West will always be a marriage of convenience, but the Summit League had been defining itself. But if SUU, USD and UND are not part of the Summit, the future is a bit more cloudy.