BYU’s TV contract with ESPN, the issue that the world knew would be a deal breaker, seems to have been exactly that: a deal breaker. At the heart of the problem was that the Big East expected BYU to surrender it’s TV rights to the conference. But BYU has refused to budge on it’s stance that the school alone should hold the rights to it’s ESPN deal for home games. The Big East argument is that it needs the BYU rights in order to negotiate a better overall conference television deal.

With the chance still existing that the BCS will drop the conference automatic qualifiers, it also takes some pressure off of BYU to make a move. Because if there is no BCS reward in joining the Big East, then it makes less sense for BYU to surrender it’s ESPN TV money, averaging $1-$2 million per game.

So seemingly until the Big East drops their demands, BYU will be remaining as an independent.

The lack of action has become all too expected regarding the future of the Big East.

Make no mistake, the Big East plans are set…at least what they want…and include a number of additions.

The absolutes in the expansion plan?
1) UCF, SMU and Houston WILL join for all-sports.
2) Boise St. is all but set to join, but requires an additional travel partner from the west, along with Air Force. BYU was the top pick and once BYU is out of the mix, the Big East will likely look to SDSU.
3) Air Force is likely in if Boise St. and a 3rd western school are in…and certainly in if Navy joins as well.
4) Navy is likely in if the plan to 12 goes forward

The  problem of course is that now the Big East has a rejection in the news cycle from BYU.

The Big East has had 3-4 weeks opportunity to make a splash, to build some buzz, and start setting the plan in motion. At only 5 football schools, we already know that per NCAA rules, the Big East needs to add 3 all-sports members in order to retain football sponsorship. But instead of riding that wave of a positive news cycle, announcing the additions of UCF, SMU and Houston, they opted to wait until they had their full 10-12 schools lined up.

Even worse was that the Big East missed an opportunity last Saturday as ESPN Gameday was being held at Houston to highlight that school, an opportunity the Big East could have used to dominate the broadcast with positive Big East publicity.

But if the conference needs 3 all-sports members, why wait on football-only member moves to be finalized before setting the first tier of the plan in motion? Only the Big East can answer that.

Once BYU is out of the mix, the Big East will likely turn to SDSU as a football only member. SDSU will likely join the Big West for it’s non-football sports. The Big West would welcome SDSU with open arms, a move that would have been more difficult had the conference opted to bring in UC-San Diego earlier this year.

Should SDSU join the Big East for football, the Big East will have the strangest look in the history of college conferences. The Big East conference will ultimately look similar to the Pioneer Football league. For the Pioneer League, they have a better excuse: they are the only non-scholarship FCS football schools without an all-sports conference that sponsors the sport. So if San Diego wants to have FCS football without scholarships, it’s the Pioneer League or independence.

But the Big East is on the cusp of being able to add these items to their resume:

* Big East as conference home for the most western mainland US FBS school in the country, as well as being the most southwest FBS school in the country.
* Home of one of the 6 most northwest FBS schools in the country
* Home of 2 midwest FBS schools
* Home of 2 schools in Texas and 2 in Florida
* Home of the 2nd most northeast FBS school

And even if the BCS were to drop the conference AQ, it’s still likely we would see this strange union of schools come together as the television contract benefits would still be worthwhile to all schools involved.

The addition of HBU will now give the Southland 11 total members, and will be the 9th football member upon adding the sport. The Southland also recently added Oral Roberts.

For the time being, it appears the Southland will remain at 11. Should they have difficulties with scheduling for 11 schools, the conference will always have the option of adding UTPA, currently a member of the Great West with HBU. But it would seem the Southland would likely wait until they officially have no chance at current Sun Belt and lone non-football member, Arkansas-Little Rock, a school the could be looking for a new conference if their arrangement with the Sun Belt were to change.

After holding off on formal expansion plans until after the Penn St. story slowed down a bit…along with the UCF scandal…the Big East is poised to make it’s expansion moves.

* The Big East had been working on a plan that would bring in Boise St., Air Force and Navy for football only, with UCF, SMU and Houston for all sports.

The move gives the SEC exactly what it needs: a new region with new markets to help improve it’s already massive television package. With Texas A&M joining and the SEC already a dominant force in it’s current footprint, there were few schools that could give the SEC some of the financial benefits they wanted…despite Missouri being just a so-so sports product compared to some more powerful programs like say, Florida St. In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a strong toehold in Big 12 country to go with Texas A&M with the SEC now expanding as far west as the market of Kansas City.

But the real benefit might be in regards to the creeping up on the Big Ten.

In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a school right in the Big Ten backyard…and sharing what had been very much a Big Ten city in St. Louis, thanks to all the nearby Illinois graduates as well as all the Big Ten alumni living in St. Louis.

The SEC can now go forward with an SEC Network, knowing that they will have instant success in new markets like Houston, Kansas City and St. Louis.

Missouri is expected to join the SEC next season.

But that might be a problem for the Big 12.

The Big 12 added West Virginia to replace Missouri. But due to a 27 month waiting period by the Big East, WVU will not be expected to join the Big 12 next season. A lawsuit by WVU vs. the Big East was greeted with a loawsuit by the Big East vs. WVU. So the Big 12 will likely be forced to participate at 9 members next season.

* But now, various outlets including Pete Thamel of the New York Times are reporting that Louisville has gotten some political pressure placed on the Big 12 to invite Louisville instead of WVU. Thamel’s sources are saying it’s now 50/50 between Louisville and WVU for the post-Missouri #10 spot. Both schools need to hope now that the Big 12 opts for 12 schools, inviting both of them along with a 12th like BYU.

* While all eyes are on the Big 12 and Big East, the WAC put out some interesting news as well, saying they plan to add 2 more schools by the the 2013-2014 season.

Much of what the WAC does will depend on how things play out with other conferences. But it seems safe to say that no CUSA, WAC or Sunbelt schools will be included.

That leaves FCS upgrades as the only options.

Lamar likely tops the list since they have made the most strides to join over the past year. The other schools the WAC was interested in have showed less interest. Montana remains at the top of the wishlist, but has so far declined the upgrade invitation. Montana St. is a school that many assume would need to upgrade as well for Montana to make a move. Portland St., Sacramento St., Cal – Poly, and UC-Davis are the other schools the WAC had shown some level of interest in from the west. In Texas, in addition to Lamar, Sam Houston St. has been on the radar.

The Southland has been in a tough spot with the losses of Texas St., UTSA and Texas-Arlington to the WAC, leaving the Southland with with 8 football members and 1 non-football member. Oral Roberts will give the Southland a total of 10 members and expand the conference footprint to include a 4th state, Oklahoma, to go along with Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.

The loss of Oral Roberts will certainly be deemed a con for the Summit League as they have been one of the more successful programs in the Summit. But with the shift in the Summit footprint over the past decade, the loss of Oral Roberts actually makes the Summit a more compacted and focused conference. They recently lost Centenary in Louisiana, the Summit outpost the furthest south. Southern Utah, the school furthest west, is headed to the Big Sky. With the addition of University of Nebraska at Omaha, the Summit League will now be down to 9 members. There has been some dialog with potential D1 upgrades such as NKU, although that school is expected to join the OVC should they upgrade.

* All eyes are still on Missouri. The school will likely announce as soon as today, that they will withdraw from the Big 12. Of course, it will be conditional on getting a formal invitation from the SEC.

Big 12:

* With Missouri set to join the SEC for that conferences #14 spot, the Big 12 will act quickly to replace Missouri.

* WVU is expected to be the new #10 school.

* The Big 12, WVU and Big East will also likely work on an accelerated departure from the Big East, rather than waiting the full 27 months. The rationale is that the Big 12 will need to “budge” in order to secure a 10th member for the 2012 season as Missouri is expected to leave before then.

* Louisville is still on the big 12 radar for the #10 spot, but is behind WVU. This likely means that Louisville will only be a part of the Big 12 if they opt to expand to 12.

* Many of the Big 12 members, including Oklahoma,  prefer expansion to 12, but Texas has expressed the most resistance to 12.

* Beyond the conspiracy theories of Texas “control” and fear that 12 members would limit their control of the conference, the biggest hit on expansion to 12 is the lack of quality candidates. WVU and Louisville are excellent options, as was TCU. But it’s a drop in the candidate pool after that with Cincinnati in the 4th spot and others like Houston not even seeming to be on the radar.

* The #3 candidate for the Big 12 remains BYU. But there are a number of issues in play with BYU that make a move more difficult. BYU has it’s “no Sunday play” rule and the Big 12 would like to opt for a Sunday college basketball championship. That and the problems with regular season scheduling make BYU somewhat of a problem. There is also the existing ESPN deal BYU has that would need to be reworked. BYU also has BYU TV, which would face the same issues that the LHN has within the Big 12.

* So it appears that if the Big 12 could get BYU without any problems, they and Louisville would be #11 and #12 after WVU as #10. But in addition to the BYU issues, there are other internal factors that need to be sorted out such as the big question: 10 or 12.

* The Big 12 might also be the front-runner to add a certain non-football school. Doing so would allow them to add BYU for football only and have 12 for football, 12 for non-football sports.

Big East:

* No formal invites have been extended due to the shaky nature of all things related to the Big 12. The desired schools, Boise St., Air Force, UCF, Houston, SMU and Navy will all likely wait to see what happens with the Big East before making a decision.

* But if WVU and Louisville were to leave the Big East, there is a good chance we could see something more drastic done. For instance…

* If WVU and Louisville leave, the Big East would be down to 4 football schools. That would mean they would need to add 4 schools JUST to maintain FBS status. Note that it’s the BCS AQ that has Boise St. even giving the Big East some consideration. But if WVU and Louisville leave, it would appear the Big East BCS AQ would be gone.

* If down to 4 schools (UConn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, USF), in order for the Big East to remain an FBS conference and hope to retain the BCS AQ would be to expand with whatever they can get. Navy, Air Force and Boise St. would likely be off the table. More likely, you would see UCF, SMU, Houston and Temple brought in for all-sports to get to the magic number of (8) all-sports members (required to sponsor FBS football). The Big East would also likely consider football-only members such as ECU. Memphis is another all-sports option, despite their lackluster football status. Even UMass could be a candidate for football-only membership (along with ECU) to get the membership to 10.

* If WVU and Louisville do leave, the other option might make the most sense: to drop football. CUSA would likely welcome the 4 remaining Big East football members for football only or all-sports. Due to the basketball success, all 4 Big East schools would want to remain in the Big East for their other sports. So the Big East could be at 11 or 12 members with the 4 football schools participating in the CUSA/MWC partnership:

East Division: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, Cincinnati, Marshall, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, UAB, USM, Tulane, Tulsa

West Division:  Houston, Rice, SMU,  UTEP, Air Force, Colorado St., New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Boise St., Wyoming, Hawaii

CUSA/Mountain West Partnership:

* The official partnership is going forward, waiting to see what the exact membership will be.

* If Boise St., Air Force, SMU, Houston and UCF leave MWC and CUSA, the membership numbers will be (9) for CUSA and (8) for Mountain West. Replacements would likely come from the Utah St., North Texas, UTSA pool.

* The Big East is NOT part of the partnership. But if more Big East schools leave and the conference were to drop football, then remaining football schools would jump at the opportunity as it would be their best options.

Notre Dame:

* Notre Dame will likely make it’s decision on what it will do over the next 2 months.

* Notre Dame options:

- ACC for all-sports: this is still an option. The ACC has implied that if Notre Dame joins, it would need to be for all-sports. While the huge Big Ten payouts might be more attractive to most, the ACC offers Notre Dame two things they might prefer over money: more access to the northeast TV markets (heavily catholic) via Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh. The ACC is also a better recruiting region for the school.

- Big Ten for all-sports: like with the ACC, the Big Ten would require Notre Dame football to be included. The money is fantastic, but it’s a risk to Notre Dame if they are a middle of the pack program in their own region.

- Big East Hybrid: should more Big East schools leave (WVU, Louisville), Notre Dame will be looking at a conference made up of either 8 non-football schools along with Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati and USF…or the same 12 schools but also with UCF, SMU, Houston, Temple. When looking at that lineup, one can see why Notre Dame would consider all their options.

- Big 12 for non-football sports: this could be the best option now for Notre Dame. They would be able to maintain football independence, while joining a top non-football conference, one that could have nearby schools WVU and Louisville included.

ACC:

* The ACC is interested in 16 if it were the right situation.

* Notre Dame remains the top option and the ACC is starting to put pressure on the school for a final answer.

* This pressure might also show some of the ACC’s hand. They are in no rush. But if forcing one, it might mean that the ACC has a backup plan.

* Uconn has remained a top option for the ACC if they expand to 16. In fact, most in the ACC (and ESPN) preferred Uconn over Pitt in the #14 spot.

* Notre Dame and Uconn are the desired #15 and #16 schools. But if Notre Dame passes, there is some support for either: A) remain at 14 or B) expand to 16 with Uconn and Rutgers. In grabbing Uconn and Rutgers, the ACC would secure virtually the entire northeast region and likely have MSG approach them for basketball tournament hosting. With BC, Uconn, Syracuse, Pitt and Rutgers (or Notre Dame) the ACC would be the dominant conference in the population rich area…something that will improve their television contracts.

Over the past year, the Mountain West and CUSA have toyed with the idea of some sort of union. The idea first gained legs when Utah left for the Pac-10 and the Mountain West was then shocked with the sudden departure of BYU. At the time, it appeared that the WAC was going to make a power play, leaving the MWC with only 5-6 schools…and CUSA started thinking. As we know, the MWC would opt to expand with Boise St., Nevada, Fresno St, and then Hawaii for football only, so a merger with CUSA was not necessary.

But the two conferences continued to discuss their options.

The goal has been two fold:

1) To combine their resources in being able to better negotiate a higher revenue television contract.

2) To potentially convince the BCS that this new union of the top 2 non-BCS conferences is indeed deserving of a 7th BCS AQ bid.

By covering 16 states in 5 time zones, many will remember the failed WAC experiment. But in the age of large TV contracts, this group has a huge advantage. Networks are doing everything they can to gobble up broadcast rights for live college football content. And with NBC/Comcast in the mix now, it’s a 3 horse race with leader ESPN and FoxSports (Fox now also airs college sports on it’s FX and primary Fox networks) to drive up the price.

Also worth noting is that this is not a 22 school all-sports conference. This is 22 schools for football only. So unlike the WAC of the late 1990′s, Tulsa womens basketball won’t have to fly to Hawaii or any other odd conference travel outside of football.

The conference setup will simply have the CUSA winner play the MWC winner in a championship game.

The divisional lineups are yet to be decided, it still unknown is in the end, the CUSA division would be 12 CUSA schools while the MWC division had 10 schools. There remains the option to move a school to the MWC for balance at 11 each. That said, there is the risk of more schools leaving.

The announced merger comes at the same time that the Big East is looking for replacement schools, with candidates coming from both CUSA and the MWC.

So the 22 school football conference could be losing some schools.

At the time of this article, the Big East is set to invite such schools as:

Boise St. (MWC)
Air Force (MWC)
UCF (CUSA)
SMU (CUSA)
Houston (CUSA)
Navy
Temple

The top candidates for the Big East are Boise St., Air Force, UCF with only UCF for all-sports. It is believed that either SMU or Houston would be brought in for all sports for the 4th addition with Navy for football only. The 6th spot would then be between Temple for all-sports or football-only if the objections by Villanova are heard. If Temple is passed over, then the second Texas school would be invited.

So there is a good chance that CUSA would be down to 9-10 members and the MWC at 8 members.

The losses of schools such as Boise St., Air Force, UCF, Houston and SMU would be a negative.

However, these losses could actually help bring some balance to the new conference.

The MWC had been expected in invite Utah St. as a replacement for Boise St. or Air Force is they opt to go. But if CUSA were down to 9-10 members and the MWC at 8, the two conference would have the option to work together with something as simple as CUSA “sending” UTEP to the MWC (if UTEP agreed).

UTEP is located closer to MWC school New Mexico than any CUSA schools. And should both Houston and SMU leave, CUSA would have only Rice from the state of Texas, something that might make remaining in CUSA less of a priority.

So should CUSA and the MWC lose schools to the Big East, we could see:

CUSA:
Marshall
ECU
Memphis
UAB
USM
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
SMU/Houston/UTEP/* North Texas

MWC:
Hawaii
SDSU
Fresno St.
Nevada
UNLV
Wyoming
Colorado St.
New Mexico
*UTEP/ *Utah St./*North Texas

The big question remains though: will the BCS grant this conference a BCS AQ? If Boise St. and the others remain, it would seem more likely as the conference would contain programs of equal BCS rankings to most of the remaining Big East football schools, with Boise St. at the top. However, without a national power like Boise St., the outlook would not be so rosy.

As for TCU, a Big 12 invitation would be a dream cone true. Left out of the Big 12 when the Big 8 and SWC merged two decades ago, TCU has had more movement than any school in Division 1:

Southwest Conference > WAC > CUSA > MWC > agreed to move to Big East (BCS conference) > Big 12 (as they never participated in the Big East, the school would be free to move without the 27 month waiting period that current Big East members must face).

Many had thought the Big 12 would avoid adding another Texas school, due to the ill-will perceived coming out of University of Texas, as well as the Texas A&M departure.

However, TCU does bring a more successful football program than Texas A&M at this time, a program better than most of the available candidates.

While many feel that adding TCU does little for adding new TV markets to the conference, since Texas dominates most of the cities in the state, there is another factor to consider: alumni. With TCU in the Big 12, it gives all the alumni from Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas and Kansas St. that live in Dallas (one of the cities with the most Big 12 school alumni) more opportunities to support Big 12 athletics.

Another important note is that if TCU joins for #10, it is expected that the Big 12 will remain at 10. This would exclude schools like BYU, Louisville and WVU. However, with Missouri remaining, the Big 12 would be wise to consider expansion to 12 with Louisville and WVU, as Missouri would be a natural bridge to both states. An eastern expansion would give the conference enough members for a championship game, but also increase the conferences exposure in the eastern markets, with some residual penetration into the now weakened northeast media markets now split between the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (WVU, Uconn, Rutgers).

As for the Big East, despite any spin, the loss of TCU would be a serious blow. TCU was added as a means to boost the football performance. For the majority of the BCS bids that the Big East has had, the Big East had the lowest BCS ranking of the AQ bids. At times, the Big East BCS representative reanked in the 25-32 spot and many question why the Big East had an AQ while schools like TCU, Boise St., Utah and others were at times left out of the BCS despite a top 10 ranking.

The Big East would then be down to 6 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. The conference planned to regroup from 7 with the addition of 2-3 schools. Now they will be looking to add 3-4. The candidate pool is far from attractive in regards to a BCS bid. Air Force will likely pass at this point, as would Navy for football only…unless the Big East comes up with a solid plan and all remaining schools remain. Uconn has it’s eyes set on the ACC, hoping the conference can get Notre Dame to join and Uconn for #16. Uconn and Rutgers remain options for the ACC should they expand to 16.

If the big 12 stops at 10, it means that the Big East 6 will likely remain and there is enough political cache to retain the BCS bid. But if Louisville and WVU were to leave (Big 12/SEC), that might change. All of a sudden, schools like SMU, Houston, Memphis, ECU, Temple, Villanova, UMass, etc aren’t going to be enough to add to football prestige.

Big 12:
The new Big 12 lovefest had another meeting this weekend. Nothing official had been decided. The likely reason is so that they can wait for Missouri to make their decision on Big 12 or to work on a move to the SEC. Missouri curators are set to meet on Tuesday and a decision is expected to come out then. While the stability of the SEC seems to be a real attractive option, one that many schools would want, it’s still very likely that Missouri will opt to remain in the Big 12.

SEC:
The SEC has said that 13 is fine…while hints out of Tennessee imply that further expansion will happen (likely to 14). Meanwhile, the idea of an SEC network is progressing at this point. And in adding Texas, it’s a more attractive option. But an SEC network also makes Missouri a real attractive option, as it means adding the Kansas City and St. Louis markets for a network, right in Big Ten and Big 12 country.

Big East:
The Big East meeting on Sunday seemed to open some new doors. It had appeared that the basketball schools would be unwilling to add any new all-sports members. The rationale was that if they added schools based on football, it would hurt the basketball product. Even worse, if schools such as Uconn and Louisville, as well as Rutgers and WVU left the Big East, then the basketball schools would be “stuck” with schools that they only agreed to take to keep the core schools with football happy. Perhaps a potential threat by the football schools to simply leave made the basketball schools realize that they need to bend in order to even try to keep the basketball powerhouse schools like UConn and Louisville happy. Of course, WVU and Louisville (and perhaps Cincinnati) remain Big 12 candidates while UConn to to a lesser extent, Rutgers, are on the ACC radar.

The result: a set path on schools that the Big East will consider.
* For football only, the Big East will continue to look at Army and Navy.
* For all sports, the candidates are Air Force, UCF and Temple. USF had reportedly been blocking UCF, but it would seem that logic prevailed (adding another Florida school as a recruiting benefit…and the Orlando market). Temple seemed to be blocked for decades by Villanova for all-sports membership. But with Temple’s hot football spot and location in Philadelphia, Temple might have now gained enough local support to quell Villanova’s objections.
* A new school is on the Big East list: SMU. A strange option indeed. SMU offers essentially the same partial market as TCU. The Big East had said they wanted to remain in the east with TCU the lone western member. But if the Big East were to expand again into Texas, one would think that the candidate that ranked high just a few months ago, Houston, would be on the list…but they are not now. Houston would provide the Big East with another Texas school, but a new market to add to Dallas/Ft. Worth in Houston. Yet it seems that Houston is off the list, SMU now one it.

NCAA Hockey:
The massive realignment is still underway. The new NCHC is set to add 8 members. Notre Dame is expected to announce on Wednesday it’s conference choice that barring a change would appear to be Hockey East.