State of the WAC – Part 3:
WAC Winners and Losers

The WAC realignment over the past few months has been filled with all sorts of drama. We’ve had a huge grab for regional power foiled at the last second by WAC members sabotaging from within. We’ve had recovery momentum build, new schools pledge allegiance to the new WAC, while others spurned the invitations to join the new group. And now, it appears that one of the original 6, Hawaii, is ready to move on as well.

And with each move we see, schools go from losers to winners and from winners to losers…and a select few others are left in limbo.

Here’s a look at the WAC members both winners and losers and where the fall on the scale:

Boise St. was on a path to the MWC regardless. So it is actually Nevada and Fresno St. that made the biggest move, as they singlehandedly ended the power grab the WAC was looking to make. If Nevada and Fresno St. remained in the WAC, Boise St. possibly remains as well, and BYU is a non-football member of the WAC. Instead, non-football member BYU has been replaced by Denver and Nevada & Fresno St. have been replaced with UTSA, a school just starting the sport of football, and Texas St from FCS. Meanwhile, Boise St., Nevada and Fresno St. are having good to great seasons and all prepared for bowl games (and a potential BCS bowl for Boise St.).

• Options: appears to have just about finalized deals with the MWC and Big West

• Options: hope for a MWC all-sports invitation
• Possibilities: If WAC folds, Utah St. could participate as a football independent and join the Summit League for non-football sports. The Big Sky would likely invite Utah St. for non-football sports to bring their membership totals to 12.Potential MWC with Utah St if TCU leaves:
  Boise St., Utah St., Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St., SDSU
  Colorado St., Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, Houston, * Hawaii

  Potential Big Sky with Utah St., Idaho & Denver (non-football):
  EWU, Portland St., Sacramento St., Idaho, Idaho St., Utah St., Weber St.,
  North Dakota, Montana, Montana St., Denver, No. Colorado, SUU, NAU,

• Options: hope for a MWC non-football invite to offset Hawaii as a football-only member
• Possibilities: If WAC folds, Denver could join the Summit League. The Big Sky would likely invite Denver. for non-football sports to bring their membership totals to 12.Potential MWC with Denver:
  Boise St., Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St., SDSU, * Hawaii (Denver for non-football sports)Colorado St., Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, TCU, Houston
  
  Potential Big Sky with Utah St., Idaho & Denver (non-football):
  EWU, Portland St., Sacramento St., Idaho, Idaho St., Utah St., Weber St.,
  North Dakota, Montana, Montana St., Denver, No. Colorado, SUU, NAU

  Potential Summit League with Denver:
  Denver, NDSU, SDSU, USD, UMKC, ORU, WIU, IPFW, IUPUI, Oakland

• Options: hope for a invitations from CUSA or the Sunbelt for all sports.
• Possibilities: If WAC folds, either could participate as a football independents and join the Summit League for non-football sports. The Southland might even reconsider keeping both schools for non-football sports. The Southland might need some membership stability and if their options were Oral Roberts, UTPA, Houston Baptist and then UTSA and Texas St., it would appear that UTSA and Texas St. would have the advantage.Potential Sunbelt with UTSA, Texas St., LA Tech and NMSU:
  FIU, FAU, Troy, USA, WKU, MTSU, Arkansas St., *UALR (non-football)
  NMSU, Texas St., UTSA, No. Texas, LA Tech, ULL, ULM

  Potential Summit League with Denver, UTSA and Texas St.:
  Denver, UMKC, Oral Roberts, UTSA, Texas St., WIU
  NDSU, SDSU, USD, IPFW, IUPUI, Oakland

  Potential Southland with UTSA and Texas St. for non-football:
  same as current lineup

LA Tech has long been on the furthest eastern outskirts of the WAC footprint. And while the Sunbelt has always seemingly been an option, LA Tech chose to remain in the WAC, primarily due to the success of Boise St. and Hawaii in football, and even the superior basketball product thanks to programs like Utah St. and NMSU. And with the football product still seeming better than the Sunbelt thanks to Hawaii, LA Tech remained in the WAC after the Boise St., Nevada and Fresno St. defections, although the school was exempt from the $5 million exit fee in the WAC (the WAC has always left LA Tech open to leave, especially when the WAC actually had other more attractive options).

The additions of UTSA and Texas St. not only added the necessary football members, but also gave LA Tech and NMSU closer conference rivals. But if the WAC is this close to collapsing, why stick around if you’re LA Tech and you have an option? NMSU might not be as much of a lock for the Sunbelt as the conference does have room for (2) schools to get to 12 football members…but might find the lure of the San Antonio market more appealing via adding UTSA.

• Options: LA Tech = hope for a CUSA invite should UCF, UTEP or Houston leave.
• Options: LA Tech = reach out to the Sunbelt about joining
• Options: NMSU = hope for a CUSA invite if UCF, Houston, UTEP leave
• Options: NMSU = reach out to the Sunbelt about joining
• Possibilities: If WAC folds and neither CUSA nor the Sunbelt offer LA Tech or NMSU invitations, both schools could participate as football independents. For non-football sports, the Summit League would be an option, although not ideal. The Southland would be ideal for both as the conference footprint is Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.Potential Sunbelt with UTSA, Texas St., LA Tech and NMSU:
  FIU, FAU, Troy, USA, WKU, MTSU, Arkansas St., *UALR (non-football)
  NMSU, Texas St., UTSA, No. Texas, LA Tech, ULL, ULM

  Potential Summit League with Denver, UTSA, LA Tech, NMSU, Texas St.:
  Denver, NMSU, UMKC, Oral Roberts, UTSA, Texas St.,LA Tech
  NDSU, SDSU, USD, IPFW, IUPUI, Oakland

  Potential Southland with UTSA, Texas St., LA Tech and NMSU for non-football:
  NMSU, Texas St., UTSA, UTA, SHSU,  SFAU, TAMCC
  LA Tech, McNeese St., Lamar, NWSU, Nicholls St., SELA, UCA

Per Jeff Kolpack, it appears that the idea of Nebraska-Omaha joining the Summit League could be closer to reality. On his site, he gives a recap of the interview Summit League commissioner Tom Douple had on his radio station, WDAY. Douple says he has indeed had discussions with UNO athletic director Trev Alberts about the school joining.

The trickle down of a UNO upgrade would be interesting to watch. The Summit would bring in another member in the region, something that will come in real handy should Oral Roberts ever get approached by the Southland. But it could create some buzz in the MVFC as well. The league passed on the 11 team model, which resulted in North Dakota leaving for the Big Sky. But if UNO is in the mix, North Dakota could move to the Summit League and with UNO, join the MVFC for football.

In such a case, a 12 school MVFC could split into two divisions with UND, NDSU, USD, SDSU, UNO and UNI forming the west division.

As for the Summit, if they can get UNO in the fold, it will further stabilize their conference in it’s newly focused footprint. An added bonus would be for North Dakota to join as well.

It should be noted that while not mentioned in the article, we can assume that UNO would not upgrade to Division 1 unless it had a football conference home already lined up.And the Summit/MVFC option seems the most likely. And that opens the door for North Dakota to join the MVFC as well. Of course the Big Sky could ruin things is they had their own discussions with UNO.

Kolpack as mentions that the Summit League has confirmed some level of discussions with Arkansas-Little Rock. Another school in the mix is St. Cloud State, which has reviewed dropping football not that long ago.

USD had appeared in line to join the Big Sky, following former Great West football partners Southern Utah and North Dakota as full members of the Big Sky. North Dakota and South Dakota both hoped that the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which houses NDSU and SDSU, would extend a lifeline so that they could remain in the Summit with the Dakota St. schools, but gain a football home.

Multiple sources have reported that on Monday, the Big Sky will announce the additions of Southern Utah and North Dakota as full members. South Dakota will/has received a formal invitation as well, but it is not yet confirmed that they have accepted.

North Dakota had a scheduled campus visit set for next week for Summit League authorities. But North Dakota, not the Summit, has cancelled the planned visit (which was to be the final step before a Summit League invitation).

Meanwhile, Southern Utah looks to have finally gotten what it’s wanted for decades: Big Sky membership. With in-state rival Weber St. to the north, and NAU in Flagstaff, AZ just a few hours south, Southern Utah will not only have a home for it’s football team, but a more travel friendly conference for it’s other sports.

Over the past decade, the Summit League received a much needed boost to it’s profile. As the Mid-Continent conference and then re-branded as the “Summit League”, the conference grew from being just a wayward home for new Division 1 upgrades, to a conference with a better defined regional footprint. And the individual schools that made up the Summit League seemed to have more similar profiles.

It started with the upgrades in the Dakotas with North Dakota St. and South Dakota St. Both were brought into the Summit in 2007 and started another positive redefinition of the conference. This was just months after the Summit League rid themselves of struggling Chicago St.

That same year, Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne was brought in, giving the conference a second Indiana school along with IUPUI in Indianapolis.

This past year, struggling Centenary, a small private school far outside the primary Summit League footprint in Louisiana announced they were downgrading to Division 3 and leaving the conference.

And as Centenary is leaving, University of South Dakota is officially entering the Summit League.

With University of North Dakota resolving their school nickname issue, it appeared the Summit League was all set to bring in the 4th Dakota school and solidifying this northern US region as Summit League country.

But now the Summit League could all be changing.

Multiple reports claim that there exists a possibility that the four Dakota schools might be split between two conferences before they ever had a chance to all participate together.

NDSU and SDSU participate in the Missouri Valley Football Conference for football, but with all other sports in the Summit. USD and UND were left behind in the Great West for football, but it was still only a single sport that was on the outside.

But now, we might see South Dakota and North Dakota pack their bags, South Dakota tear off their Summit League badge, and both schools migrate over to the Big Sky Conference.

Southern Utah, who has always been clear that they preferred the Big Sky (since it’s a more logical regional footprint), might be leaving as well.

The result: All the progress the Summit League has made in defining themselves, improving their athletic performance, and establishing a solid membership core could be about to go through a radical change.

With what seems like a real threat that the Summit might lose USD and SUU…and never getting to bring in NDU, the Summit League members will need to look at their options.

If SUU and USD leave, the Summit League would include:

• North Dakota St.
• South Dakota St.
• Missouri-Kansas City
• Oral Roberts
• Western Illinois
• Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne
• Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis
• Oakland

That’s an 8 school conference. It’s all they need. But 8 doesn’t give as much stability when all your members would jump at the chance to join another conference:

• Oral Roberts could defect to the Southland Conference when Texas St. and UTSA leave for FBS. The Southland could also lose schools like Lamar and SHSU down the road to create more Southland openings.
• NDSU and SDSU would like to be in the Missouri Valley for all-sports as the 11th and 12th members.
• Western Illinois would likely rather be in the Ohio Valley Conference as their 12th member, where there are 2 other Illinois schools (EIU, SIUE).
• IUPUI, IPFW and Oakland are less likely to leave, but would welcome an invite from the Horizon League, as long a shot as that is.
• UMKC has few options, but if the Southland were in a position where they needed 4 replacement schools, even UMKC could make it on the Southland radar.

So if you’re the Summit League with only 8 members, what do you do?

Remaining at 8 schools could be risky, but the Summit League could remain calm without expanding right away. If they were to lose 1-3 schools in the future, they’d still have the time to find replacements before losing their NCAA automatic bid.

But if there is a need to expand, there are very few options.

Schools from the Horizon aren’t going to move backwards to the Summit League. The Summit has been a feeder league to the Horizon for some time, with Valparaiso (2007) and Youngstown St. (2001) being the most recent defections.

The OVC is another nearby conference, but like the Horizon, you won’t see OVC schools make the move.

So the Summit League has only 3 options:
* Great West schools
* Current D1 independents
* Upgrades currently not in Division 1

So lets’ look at some of the Summit League expansion options:

Arkansas-Little Rock:
As a non-football school in the FBS Sunbelt Conference, UALR has been on the outside of the conferences primary mission. UALR has already had preliminary discussions with the Summit League about potential future membership. But if UALR was forced out of the Sunbelt, it would seem that the Southland might be a more attractive destination than the Summit. The Southland will soon be looking for replacements once UTSA and Texas St. leave for FBS. And UALR is just a few miles away from Southland member Central Arkansas.

Denver:
Like UALR, Denver is the other non-football Sunbelt member. Denver has for decades had their eyes set on joining the WCC as the conference fits their academic and school profile as a private school. Denver is also an option to join the WAC as a non-football member. The advantage of the WAC over the Sunbelt is that at least as a non-football member, Denver would be in a conference with other regional schools such as Utah St., New Mexico St., Idaho, etc. Future WAC members could even include Montana. So if Denver is forced out of the Sunbelt and has options such as the WAC or Summit, they will likely chose the WAC. The Summit League needs to hope that a WAC invite is never extended to Denver.

Chicago St.:
It is alarming to see Chicago St. even on this list. The Summit League wanted them out not that long ago, got them to leave, but might now need them return in order for the conference to even exist. While the school offers little in it’s athletic profile, Chicago St. would give the Summit League a school in the newly defined footprint and a school in the large Chicago market.

Houston Baptist:
When one of your only options is to expand further south into Houston with a recent D1 upgrade, it’s not a good sign.

Utah Valley:
The one positive of losing Southern Utah was a tighter knit conference footprint. But if you lose USD and never get to bring UND in, it becomes a numbers game. And Utah Valley, as far from the conference base as they’d be, would give the conference membership stability.

Texas-Pan American:
Another Texas option and located near the Mexico border. But beggars can’t be choosers if the Summit really needs new members.

Missouri-St. Louis:
Another potential Division 1 upgrade that would provide the Summit with some exposure in a larger market.  Their addition would give the Summit schools from Missouri in both St. Louis and Kansas City (UMKC).

Northern Kentucky:
A longshot upgrade candidate to Division 1

Other longshot schools not currently in Division 1:
Southern Indiana
Central St. (Ohio)
Oklahoma City University
Central Oklahoma
Kentucky St.

There’s no other way to look at this: if the Summit League loses South Dakota, Southern Utah and never gets to bring in North Dakota, it will be a blow to the conference.

The best hope that the Summit League has is that the Southland does not go after Oral Roberts, the most likely future Summit defection. And it would also be helpful if Denver is not extended an invitation to the WAC and along with UALR are forced out of the Sunbelt, and forced to look for a new home.

If the Summit League could replace Southern Utah and South Dakota with Denver and UALR, it’s a coup. But few of the other scenarios offer such a positive impression of the future of the Summit League.

Summit League football has some huge obstacles: the Big Sky, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and it’s own members.

When the Summit League expanded into the Dakotas, some seeds of thought were planted about sponsoring football. You had Western Illinois as a conference member who had football in the MVFC. You had NDSU & SDSU then join the MVFC for football and in the Summit for all other sports. And you have Southern Utah and South Dakota in the Summit with their football programs in the Great West. North Dakota is expected to also join the Summit with the other 3 Dakota schools.

Do the math: that’s (6) football schools in the Summit League. And six schools is all the conference would need to have an automatic playoff berth.

So why hasn’t it happened, you ask?

Because the entire premise of the Summit League sponsoring football  is built on a house of cards.

The notion of Summit League football faces an attack on the western front from the Big Sky Conference, to the east from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and even internally from it’s own membership.

The Big Sky:
The five Summit League members who sponsor football, along with potential newcomer North Dakota would make a solid group of six schools to create a new football conference. And the Big Sky was sitting comfortably with it’s membership with no plans to expand.

But while the Summit League football schools discuss any potential birth of Summit League football, it always comes back to one point: to create Summit League football, it would need each and every of the six members to join…AND STAY.

It is no secret that Southern Utah would like to join the Big Sky. The conference already has their instate FCS rival, Weber St., located in northern Utah. Just five hours south of the Southern Utah campus is another Big Sky member, Northern Arizona. So in many ways, the Big Sky is the ideal home for Southern Utah. And SUU has made it no secret they’d like to be in the Big Sky.

In addition to SUU, both North Dakota and South Dakota, which do not have a football conference home with an FCS playoff automatic bid, would join the Big Sky in a heartbeat. Even NDSU and SDSU, which have a football home, would likely consider the Big Sky for full membership if asked.

So the house of cards of what would be Summit League football has it’s biggest issue: what happens if they form a conference with six willing members, only to have Southern Utah leave? The result: a dead football conference.

The Summit just lost some more leverage this past week to the Big Sky.

The Summit League could have been formed with the 6 all-sports members and absorbed the remaining Great West football members to join as the 7th and 8th affiliate members. But the Big Sky put a stop to that by inviting Cal Poly and UC Davis to join it’s conference instead as football members.

And if you’re keeping score of the Big Sky membership and the WAC developments, a loss of Montana to the WAC would open up a spot for Southern Utah to join the Big Sky.

Even more worth noting is the somewhat revolutionary philosophy change by the Big Sky, to permit affiliate football members.

For years, Sacramento St. has had to house all of their sports in the Big Sky as it was a requirement by the conference to be a football member. So Sacramento St. has sent their teams north into Eastern Washington, northeast to Idaho St., Montana, and Montana St., and east & south to Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona. Meanwhile, Cal Poly and UC Davis now get to play in the same football conference as nearby rival Sacramento St., but get to save millions in travel costs for their other sports by participating in the California based Big West conference. Don’t be surprised in the coming weeks if you hear rumors of Sacramento St. leaving the Big Sky for the Big West for it’s non-football sports.

It has been reported that as part of the recent partnership of Big West schools UC Davis & Cal Poly with the Big Sky, that the Big West has given assurances that they will not “poach” any Big Sky schools such as Sacramento St. However, if Sacramento St. wanted to leave the Big Sky, and the Big West had a spot for them, it hardly seems like a legal precedent where Sacramento St. would not be permitted to leave the Big Sky.

And if Sacramento St. leaves for the Big West, it would open up a position for Southern Utah to join as an all-sports member. Yet another scenario that would ruin Summit League Football.

The Missouri Valley Football Conference:
Just like the Big Sky, the MVFC has leverage over the Summit League. NDSU, SDSU and WIU are members of the Missouri Valley for football and in the Summit for all other sports. The MVFC is one of the top conferences in FCS football, and it’s membership is comprised of schools all closer to those schools than even their Summit League brethren. So if you’re NDSU, SDSU or WIU, it would take some seriously ironclad contracts to convince you to leave a top football conference for a start-up that has only six total members. Southern Utah remains the top candidate to leave the Summit for all-sports, so they are the top flight risk.

But if you’re the MVFC and you want to secure your conference, you can make your own proactive moves. If you feel NDSU and SDSU add enough to your entire conference, you could always invite both schools to join the Missouri Valley as all-sports members. The MVC is a significant upgrade over the Summit and both schools would be thrilled to join.

As the MVC is a blend of larger public state schools with football, and a few private schools for basketball, there has long been talk of the conference expanding with schools like St. Louis and Butler. The problem with those candidates being that St. Louis is already in a higher ranked basketball conference, the A10, and has it’s eyes set on joining with the Big East non-football members if a split ever happened in that hybrid conference of large state football schools and smaller catholic basketball schools. Butler is a more likely candidate to accept a MVC invitation. But with their recent success, they might have higher aspirations.

Meanwhile, if you’re looking to expand, NDSU and SDSU would be fine options. And if the MVC offered them full membership, you can say goodbye to Summit League football.

No Commitment = No Dice
Regardless of what the Big Sky does, or even the Missouri Valley Conference potential moves, the biggest reason as to why the Summit League will not likely ever have football is because of the conflicting goals of the current members.

The Summit has improved greatly over the past decade. What was once just a collection of Division 1 schools that needed a conference to call home, a D1 “halfway house”, has grown into a well managed group in a tighter knit regional footprint. The Great West and Atlantic Sun have taken over the distinction of being the being the training wheels  for recent Division 1 upgrades. Former Summit
League and Louisiana based member Centenary has left the conference to downgrade to Division 3, which removes the furthest south and east travel destination, so the footprint continues to close in. The Summit now has distinguished themselves with some stability and are actually a desirable home now to many of the Great West members.

But for all the positive moves the Summit has made, the business of college sports conferences is still that…a business.

Utah was happy in the Mountain West but always had it’s eyes on the Pac-10. So while the Summit League members will continue to make the conference even better on the court and the fields, it’s members will always keep one eye on the other conference options.

For NDSU, SDSU, South Dakota and eventually North Dakota, the Missouri Valley is the prettiest girl that all four schools hope bats it’s doe eyes. For Southern Utah, they don’t even bother dreaming of the Pac-10 beauty like Utah and BYU did, and they don’t even think they have a shot at the always attractive Mountain West. And even the WAC, the troubled girl with the nice beach house, is a stretch in their mind. But the Big Sky is the girl next door that Southern Utah has always fancied. And after years of being cordial and taking her rejections, the Big Sky might finally be ready to ask Southern Utah to the Sadie Hawkins Dance that is a stable FCS conference in the same regional footprint as the conference.

So while football might never come to be in the Summit League, the potential changes might actually favor the overall conference. If all that happens to the Summit is that Southern Utah leaves for the Big Sky, it will even further tighten the conference footprint.

There has been some talk of the Southland considering Oral Roberts in Oklahoma as a potential replacement for UTSA or Texas St. when they leave for an FBS conference.

If both schools left, and North Dakota is brought in, you’d still have an 8 school conference. There wouldn’t be any real need to worry unless the Missouri Valley invited some schools. But that would still be a long shot.

So while football might not happen in the Summit, the future remains bright for the little conference that could. But like most conferences at this level of the pecking order, each of the schools will always be preparing themselves for greener pastures. College sports is a business and the schools are doing the responsible thing by keeping their options open. We like to think that college sports are part of some Utopian society and that perhaps the six Summit League schools could take a blood oath to stay together forever, maybe even exchanging some friendship bracelets and preparing for centuries together. But the Summit League is still a group of schools tied together only by necessity. And needs change as do opportunities.

Sad day for Sioux fans. But a Summit League invite will be the reward. All (4) Dakota schools will soon be in the same conference thanks to this move. The Summit League has stated that they would not invite North Dakota until the nickname issue was resolved, something that took 4 years.

There hasn’t been any announcement on the new nickname.

My personal favorite options to replace Fighting Sioux:

UND “Two Socks”

UND “Tatankas”

UND “Fighting Sues”