In order to upgrade to Division 1, a school must have an invitation to join an existing all-sports conference. This eliminates upgrades we’ve seen in the past from Division 2 to Division 1 independence such as NDSU, UND, SDSU, USD, Seattle, CSU Bakersfield, UTPA, Houston Baptist and others. The Atlantic Sun, OVC and Summit League have been the primary homes for recent upgrade invites such as SIUE to the OVC, UNO to Summit League, and Kennessaw St., North Florida, and FGCU to the Atlantic Sun.

Based on their geography, NKU could have multiple options. The Summit League seems like the best fit, as the conference does not sponsor football, a sport NKU does not currently have. If NKU were extended an invitation, it would bring the Summit League membership to 11. With NKU located in the Cincinnati DMA, it would give the Summit League some access to that market. And the school is also nearby two current Summit League members, IUPUI in Indianapolis and IPFW in Fort Wayne.

The Ohio Valley Conference would seem like a stretch for the same reason that NKU does not have football.

The ball is clearly in Tom Douple and the Summit Leagues court now. If they want another member, it would seem they would have one in KNU.

Initially, it appeared that the UNO and Summit discussions would likely mean and FCS football invitation for UNO by the MVFC, the Summit’s “partner” FCS football league of sorts and home to it’s members WIU, SDSU, NDSU and soon to be USD. This past year, South Dakota appeared set to join the Big Sky with North Dakota and Southern Utah but at the last second, was issued an invitation by the MVFC to join as it’s 10th member, a move that also enabled USD to join the Summit League for other sports. The rationale given for the exclusion of North Dakota was that the MVFC only wanted to expand in even numbers. As Southern Utah was in favor of the Big Sky for all sports, it meant that the MVFC would not be able to bring all three schools for an even 12. Instead, only USD for #10.

But as the UNO discussions progressed, it appeared that a door could be opening for North Dakota to join the MVFC after all. UNO would be the 11th member of the MVFC and the conference would then need UND as the 12th member. That door for UND now appears to be closed, whether it was their option or not.

The new developments now mean that for better or for worse, North Dakota will be isolated from any and all regional schools for some time. NDSU, SDSU and USD will be members of the Summit League and MVFC while UND will be joining the Big Sky. UND will for likely decades to come, be sending all of it’s sports programs as far as Portland, OR and Sacramento, CA and south to Flagstaff, AZ, the home of Northern Arizona.

In addition to dropping football, UNO will also be dropping wrestling. That too is shocking as the program just won it’s 3rd straight national championship.

As for North Dakota and the Big Sky, the move by UNO to the Summit and dropping of football means that with no expansion candidates on the horizon and little interest right now by the Big Sky schools to upgrade and join the WAC, that the Big Sky will remain at 11 all-sports members and 13 for football.

UNO is currently in Division 2, but has been considering an upgrade to Division 1, especially since athletic director Trev Alberts came aboard.

UNO has made sense for some time for the Summit League. Their proximity to members such as NDSU, SDSU, UMKC and others, while adding the Omaha market could be benefits for the Summit, a conference that has re-identified itself since the additions of the Dakota schools (USD will be joining as well) and the loss of Centenary in Louisiana.

The most interesting part of UNO potentially joining the Summit will be what happens with their football program.

This past year, it appeared that the Big Sky was set to bring in Southern Utah, North Dakota and South Dakota. Both Dakota schools wanted a second option, to join the MVFC, but that option didn’t exist due to the MVFC wanting even number membership. So when SUU and UND announced they were joining the Big Sky, the MVFC (and Summit commissioner Tom Douple) brought forth the idea of South Dakota joining the MVFC at it’s 10th member. So in a last second move, South Dakota passed on the Big Sky, opting to join SDSU and NDSU in the Summit League and MVFC.

At the time, the MVFC, wanting either 10 or 12 members, meant North Dakota was on the outside of that group and instead comfortably poised for the Big Sky.

But with UNO considering an upgrade, it will likely bring UND back into the Summit discussions.

If the Summit does convince UNO to upgrade, they will likely need to provide a conference home for their football program, as it would be unwise for UNO to upgrade and forced to play football as an independent. And if the Summit works to get UNO in the MVFC, they will likely need a 12th football member to join as well.

Enter UND.

North Dakota, having it’s own Division 1 upgrade issues right now, at least has the comfort in knowing that if they opted to back out of the Big Sky acceptance, they could do so with no penalty, as per Big Sky commissioner Fullerton.

It might require a kick to UND pride, but a move to the Summit and MVFC is a win. They’d have a better travel situation by joining the other 3 Dakota schools, along with UNO. And on the football side, a move to the MVFC could be considered an upgrade due to the proximity of the leagues members. And for the Big Sky, adding UND and USD made sense at appeared some Big sky members might be leaving for the WAC. But that never happened. And USD backed out. So now North Dakota is set to join a conference with members in California and along the Pacific up into Portland, southwest into Northern Arizona…and has to travel for all sports. Had USD joined as well, travel would not be as bad for Big Sky members. But now, it means Sacramento St. needs to fly to North Dakota for a single game with no second game to schedule at a nearby opponent.

The Big Sky also is not set at an awkward 11 all-sports members and 13 football members. A UND migration to the Summit/MVFC would bring the Big Sky to a manageable 10/12 members.

Per Jeff Kolpack, it appears that the idea of Nebraska-Omaha joining the Summit League could be closer to reality. On his site, he gives a recap of the interview Summit League commissioner Tom Douple had on his radio station, WDAY. Douple says he has indeed had discussions with UNO athletic director Trev Alberts about the school joining.

The trickle down of a UNO upgrade would be interesting to watch. The Summit would bring in another member in the region, something that will come in real handy should Oral Roberts ever get approached by the Southland. But it could create some buzz in the MVFC as well. The league passed on the 11 team model, which resulted in North Dakota leaving for the Big Sky. But if UNO is in the mix, North Dakota could move to the Summit League and with UNO, join the MVFC for football.

In such a case, a 12 school MVFC could split into two divisions with UND, NDSU, USD, SDSU, UNO and UNI forming the west division.

As for the Summit, if they can get UNO in the fold, it will further stabilize their conference in it’s newly focused footprint. An added bonus would be for North Dakota to join as well.

It should be noted that while not mentioned in the article, we can assume that UNO would not upgrade to Division 1 unless it had a football conference home already lined up.And the Summit/MVFC option seems the most likely. And that opens the door for North Dakota to join the MVFC as well. Of course the Big Sky could ruin things is they had their own discussions with UNO.

Kolpack as mentions that the Summit League has confirmed some level of discussions with Arkansas-Little Rock. Another school in the mix is St. Cloud State, which has reviewed dropping football not that long ago.

USD had appeared in line to join the Big Sky, following former Great West football partners Southern Utah and North Dakota as full members of the Big Sky. North Dakota and South Dakota both hoped that the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which houses NDSU and SDSU, would extend a lifeline so that they could remain in the Summit with the Dakota St. schools, but gain a football home.

Over the past decade, the Summit League received a much needed boost to it’s profile. As the Mid-Continent conference and then re-branded as the “Summit League”, the conference grew from being just a wayward home for new Division 1 upgrades, to a conference with a better defined regional footprint. And the individual schools that made up the Summit League seemed to have more similar profiles.

It started with the upgrades in the Dakotas with North Dakota St. and South Dakota St. Both were brought into the Summit in 2007 and started another positive redefinition of the conference. This was just months after the Summit League rid themselves of struggling Chicago St.

That same year, Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne was brought in, giving the conference a second Indiana school along with IUPUI in Indianapolis.

This past year, struggling Centenary, a small private school far outside the primary Summit League footprint in Louisiana announced they were downgrading to Division 3 and leaving the conference.

And as Centenary is leaving, University of South Dakota is officially entering the Summit League.

With University of North Dakota resolving their school nickname issue, it appeared the Summit League was all set to bring in the 4th Dakota school and solidifying this northern US region as Summit League country.

But now the Summit League could all be changing.

Multiple reports claim that there exists a possibility that the four Dakota schools might be split between two conferences before they ever had a chance to all participate together.

NDSU and SDSU participate in the Missouri Valley Football Conference for football, but with all other sports in the Summit. USD and UND were left behind in the Great West for football, but it was still only a single sport that was on the outside.

But now, we might see South Dakota and North Dakota pack their bags, South Dakota tear off their Summit League badge, and both schools migrate over to the Big Sky Conference.

Southern Utah, who has always been clear that they preferred the Big Sky (since it’s a more logical regional footprint), might be leaving as well.

The result: All the progress the Summit League has made in defining themselves, improving their athletic performance, and establishing a solid membership core could be about to go through a radical change.

With what seems like a real threat that the Summit might lose USD and SUU…and never getting to bring in NDU, the Summit League members will need to look at their options.

If SUU and USD leave, the Summit League would include:

• North Dakota St.
• South Dakota St.
• Missouri-Kansas City
• Oral Roberts
• Western Illinois
• Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne
• Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis
• Oakland

That’s an 8 school conference. It’s all they need. But 8 doesn’t give as much stability when all your members would jump at the chance to join another conference:

• Oral Roberts could defect to the Southland Conference when Texas St. and UTSA leave for FBS. The Southland could also lose schools like Lamar and SHSU down the road to create more Southland openings.
• NDSU and SDSU would like to be in the Missouri Valley for all-sports as the 11th and 12th members.
• Western Illinois would likely rather be in the Ohio Valley Conference as their 12th member, where there are 2 other Illinois schools (EIU, SIUE).
• IUPUI, IPFW and Oakland are less likely to leave, but would welcome an invite from the Horizon League, as long a shot as that is.
• UMKC has few options, but if the Southland were in a position where they needed 4 replacement schools, even UMKC could make it on the Southland radar.

So if you’re the Summit League with only 8 members, what do you do?

Remaining at 8 schools could be risky, but the Summit League could remain calm without expanding right away. If they were to lose 1-3 schools in the future, they’d still have the time to find replacements before losing their NCAA automatic bid.

But if there is a need to expand, there are very few options.

Schools from the Horizon aren’t going to move backwards to the Summit League. The Summit has been a feeder league to the Horizon for some time, with Valparaiso (2007) and Youngstown St. (2001) being the most recent defections.

The OVC is another nearby conference, but like the Horizon, you won’t see OVC schools make the move.

So the Summit League has only 3 options:
* Great West schools
* Current D1 independents
* Upgrades currently not in Division 1

So lets’ look at some of the Summit League expansion options:

Arkansas-Little Rock:
As a non-football school in the FBS Sunbelt Conference, UALR has been on the outside of the conferences primary mission. UALR has already had preliminary discussions with the Summit League about potential future membership. But if UALR was forced out of the Sunbelt, it would seem that the Southland might be a more attractive destination than the Summit. The Southland will soon be looking for replacements once UTSA and Texas St. leave for FBS. And UALR is just a few miles away from Southland member Central Arkansas.

Denver:
Like UALR, Denver is the other non-football Sunbelt member. Denver has for decades had their eyes set on joining the WCC as the conference fits their academic and school profile as a private school. Denver is also an option to join the WAC as a non-football member. The advantage of the WAC over the Sunbelt is that at least as a non-football member, Denver would be in a conference with other regional schools such as Utah St., New Mexico St., Idaho, etc. Future WAC members could even include Montana. So if Denver is forced out of the Sunbelt and has options such as the WAC or Summit, they will likely chose the WAC. The Summit League needs to hope that a WAC invite is never extended to Denver.

Chicago St.:
It is alarming to see Chicago St. even on this list. The Summit League wanted them out not that long ago, got them to leave, but might now need them return in order for the conference to even exist. While the school offers little in it’s athletic profile, Chicago St. would give the Summit League a school in the newly defined footprint and a school in the large Chicago market.

Houston Baptist:
When one of your only options is to expand further south into Houston with a recent D1 upgrade, it’s not a good sign.

Utah Valley:
The one positive of losing Southern Utah was a tighter knit conference footprint. But if you lose USD and never get to bring UND in, it becomes a numbers game. And Utah Valley, as far from the conference base as they’d be, would give the conference membership stability.

Texas-Pan American:
Another Texas option and located near the Mexico border. But beggars can’t be choosers if the Summit really needs new members.

Missouri-St. Louis:
Another potential Division 1 upgrade that would provide the Summit with some exposure in a larger market.  Their addition would give the Summit schools from Missouri in both St. Louis and Kansas City (UMKC).

Northern Kentucky:
A longshot upgrade candidate to Division 1

Other longshot schools not currently in Division 1:
Southern Indiana
Central St. (Ohio)
Oklahoma City University
Central Oklahoma
Kentucky St.

There’s no other way to look at this: if the Summit League loses South Dakota, Southern Utah and never gets to bring in North Dakota, it will be a blow to the conference.

The best hope that the Summit League has is that the Southland does not go after Oral Roberts, the most likely future Summit defection. And it would also be helpful if Denver is not extended an invitation to the WAC and along with UALR are forced out of the Sunbelt, and forced to look for a new home.

If the Summit League could replace Southern Utah and South Dakota with Denver and UALR, it’s a coup. But few of the other scenarios offer such a positive impression of the future of the Summit League.

Summit League football has some huge obstacles: the Big Sky, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and it’s own members.

When the Summit League expanded into the Dakotas, some seeds of thought were planted about sponsoring football. You had Western Illinois as a conference member who had football in the MVFC. You had NDSU & SDSU then join the MVFC for football and in the Summit for all other sports. And you have Southern Utah and South Dakota in the Summit with their football programs in the Great West. North Dakota is expected to also join the Summit with the other 3 Dakota schools.

Do the math: that’s (6) football schools in the Summit League. And six schools is all the conference would need to have an automatic playoff berth.

So why hasn’t it happened, you ask?

Because the entire premise of the Summit League sponsoring football  is built on a house of cards.

The notion of Summit League football faces an attack on the western front from the Big Sky Conference, to the east from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and even internally from it’s own membership.

The Big Sky:
The five Summit League members who sponsor football, along with potential newcomer North Dakota would make a solid group of six schools to create a new football conference. And the Big Sky was sitting comfortably with it’s membership with no plans to expand.

But while the Summit League football schools discuss any potential birth of Summit League football, it always comes back to one point: to create Summit League football, it would need each and every of the six members to join…AND STAY.

It is no secret that Southern Utah would like to join the Big Sky. The conference already has their instate FCS rival, Weber St., located in northern Utah. Just five hours south of the Southern Utah campus is another Big Sky member, Northern Arizona. So in many ways, the Big Sky is the ideal home for Southern Utah. And SUU has made it no secret they’d like to be in the Big Sky.

In addition to SUU, both North Dakota and South Dakota, which do not have a football conference home with an FCS playoff automatic bid, would join the Big Sky in a heartbeat. Even NDSU and SDSU, which have a football home, would likely consider the Big Sky for full membership if asked.

So the house of cards of what would be Summit League football has it’s biggest issue: what happens if they form a conference with six willing members, only to have Southern Utah leave? The result: a dead football conference.

The Summit just lost some more leverage this past week to the Big Sky.

The Summit League could have been formed with the 6 all-sports members and absorbed the remaining Great West football members to join as the 7th and 8th affiliate members. But the Big Sky put a stop to that by inviting Cal Poly and UC Davis to join it’s conference instead as football members.

And if you’re keeping score of the Big Sky membership and the WAC developments, a loss of Montana to the WAC would open up a spot for Southern Utah to join the Big Sky.

Even more worth noting is the somewhat revolutionary philosophy change by the Big Sky, to permit affiliate football members.

For years, Sacramento St. has had to house all of their sports in the Big Sky as it was a requirement by the conference to be a football member. So Sacramento St. has sent their teams north into Eastern Washington, northeast to Idaho St., Montana, and Montana St., and east & south to Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona. Meanwhile, Cal Poly and UC Davis now get to play in the same football conference as nearby rival Sacramento St., but get to save millions in travel costs for their other sports by participating in the California based Big West conference. Don’t be surprised in the coming weeks if you hear rumors of Sacramento St. leaving the Big Sky for the Big West for it’s non-football sports.

It has been reported that as part of the recent partnership of Big West schools UC Davis & Cal Poly with the Big Sky, that the Big West has given assurances that they will not “poach” any Big Sky schools such as Sacramento St. However, if Sacramento St. wanted to leave the Big Sky, and the Big West had a spot for them, it hardly seems like a legal precedent where Sacramento St. would not be permitted to leave the Big Sky.

And if Sacramento St. leaves for the Big West, it would open up a position for Southern Utah to join as an all-sports member. Yet another scenario that would ruin Summit League Football.

The Missouri Valley Football Conference:
Just like the Big Sky, the MVFC has leverage over the Summit League. NDSU, SDSU and WIU are members of the Missouri Valley for football and in the Summit for all other sports. The MVFC is one of the top conferences in FCS football, and it’s membership is comprised of schools all closer to those schools than even their Summit League brethren. So if you’re NDSU, SDSU or WIU, it would take some seriously ironclad contracts to convince you to leave a top football conference for a start-up that has only six total members. Southern Utah remains the top candidate to leave the Summit for all-sports, so they are the top flight risk.

But if you’re the MVFC and you want to secure your conference, you can make your own proactive moves. If you feel NDSU and SDSU add enough to your entire conference, you could always invite both schools to join the Missouri Valley as all-sports members. The MVC is a significant upgrade over the Summit and both schools would be thrilled to join.

As the MVC is a blend of larger public state schools with football, and a few private schools for basketball, there has long been talk of the conference expanding with schools like St. Louis and Butler. The problem with those candidates being that St. Louis is already in a higher ranked basketball conference, the A10, and has it’s eyes set on joining with the Big East non-football members if a split ever happened in that hybrid conference of large state football schools and smaller catholic basketball schools. Butler is a more likely candidate to accept a MVC invitation. But with their recent success, they might have higher aspirations.

Meanwhile, if you’re looking to expand, NDSU and SDSU would be fine options. And if the MVC offered them full membership, you can say goodbye to Summit League football.

No Commitment = No Dice
Regardless of what the Big Sky does, or even the Missouri Valley Conference potential moves, the biggest reason as to why the Summit League will not likely ever have football is because of the conflicting goals of the current members.

The Summit has improved greatly over the past decade. What was once just a collection of Division 1 schools that needed a conference to call home, a D1 “halfway house”, has grown into a well managed group in a tighter knit regional footprint. The Great West and Atlantic Sun have taken over the distinction of being the being the training wheels  for recent Division 1 upgrades. Former Summit
League and Louisiana based member Centenary has left the conference to downgrade to Division 3, which removes the furthest south and east travel destination, so the footprint continues to close in. The Summit now has distinguished themselves with some stability and are actually a desirable home now to many of the Great West members.

But for all the positive moves the Summit has made, the business of college sports conferences is still that…a business.

Utah was happy in the Mountain West but always had it’s eyes on the Pac-10. So while the Summit League members will continue to make the conference even better on the court and the fields, it’s members will always keep one eye on the other conference options.

For NDSU, SDSU, South Dakota and eventually North Dakota, the Missouri Valley is the prettiest girl that all four schools hope bats it’s doe eyes. For Southern Utah, they don’t even bother dreaming of the Pac-10 beauty like Utah and BYU did, and they don’t even think they have a shot at the always attractive Mountain West. And even the WAC, the troubled girl with the nice beach house, is a stretch in their mind. But the Big Sky is the girl next door that Southern Utah has always fancied. And after years of being cordial and taking her rejections, the Big Sky might finally be ready to ask Southern Utah to the Sadie Hawkins Dance that is a stable FCS conference in the same regional footprint as the conference.

So while football might never come to be in the Summit League, the potential changes might actually favor the overall conference. If all that happens to the Summit is that Southern Utah leaves for the Big Sky, it will even further tighten the conference footprint.

There has been some talk of the Southland considering Oral Roberts in Oklahoma as a potential replacement for UTSA or Texas St. when they leave for an FBS conference.

If both schools left, and North Dakota is brought in, you’d still have an 8 school conference. There wouldn’t be any real need to worry unless the Missouri Valley invited some schools. But that would still be a long shot.

So while football might not happen in the Summit, the future remains bright for the little conference that could. But like most conferences at this level of the pecking order, each of the schools will always be preparing themselves for greener pastures. College sports is a business and the schools are doing the responsible thing by keeping their options open. We like to think that college sports are part of some Utopian society and that perhaps the six Summit League schools could take a blood oath to stay together forever, maybe even exchanging some friendship bracelets and preparing for centuries together. But the Summit League is still a group of schools tied together only by necessity. And needs change as do opportunities.

Sad day for Sioux fans. But a Summit League invite will be the reward. All (4) Dakota schools will soon be in the same conference thanks to this move. The Summit League has stated that they would not invite North Dakota until the nickname issue was resolved, something that took 4 years.

There hasn’t been any announcement on the new nickname.

My personal favorite options to replace Fighting Sioux:

UND “Two Socks”

UND “Tatankas”

UND “Fighting Sues”

But the holdup on the name resolution has kept North Dakota out of the immediate Summit League plans. Neighbor, South Dakota, accepted an invite in previous months.\

In setting a deadline for October 1 to have the name issue resolved, the school is less at risk that the Summit will pass them over for say, Utah Valley.

But making the logical move by inviting North Dakota might not come to be. There are supposedly 6 schools that have applied to the Summit league excluding South Dakota. The group likely consists of UND, Utah Valley, UTPA, Houston Baptist, NJIT and Longwood. North Dakota seems to be sitting at the top but Utah Valley might have another advantage. Southern Utah needs a travel partner as their current one, UMKC, is 1200 miles away.

But should the Summit cater to the one school so far outside the current conference footprint? Or just go with the convenient pick, North Dakota, to give the conference all 4 members from the Dakotas?

Jeff Kolpack wrote a piece today about the USD move to the Summit League and the ramifications it’ll have on North Dakota joining in the future.